Zenit v Dinamo Makhachkala prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ZenitDrawDinamo Makhachkala

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Zenit 71%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zenit are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zenit 71%, draw 20%, Dinamo Makhachkala 9%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Zenit v Dinamo MakhachkalaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Zenit win71%

Draw20%

Dinamo Makhachkala win9%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueGazprom Arena

RefereeAnton Frolov

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zenit

Dinamo Makhachkala

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · the Russian Premier League

Last match: 17 Oct · the Russian Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Zenit	11	+12	24
9	Dinamo Makhachkala	11	−5	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zenit winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

71% The market74%

Us71%

~~Market~~74%

We make Zenit a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zenit v Dinamo Makhachkala~~2.09 – 0.60

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 24 v 13~~2 v 9

~~The market · Zenit win~~74% · ours 71%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zenit win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zenit win	71%	74%	−3
Draw	20%	17%	+3
Dinamo Makhachkala win	9%	9%	0
Over 2.5 goals	50%	57%	−7
Both teams to score	40%	44%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	78%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	35%	−6
Zenit or draw	91%	91%	0
Zenit clean sheet	55%	–	–
Dinamo Makhachkala clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 14.6%

0123450 7.7 3.4 1 13.5 9.2 2.6 2 14.6 8.7 2.7 3 10.2 6.0 4 5.4 3.2 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Zenit down, Dinamo Makhachkala across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,313 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.9% of games this season, across 93 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.29 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zenit at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Makhachkala away: 1.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Zenit, 0.60 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.29

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~2 of 7

~~Last meetings~~DIN 1–2 ZEN · ZEN 3–0 DIN · DIN 0–1 ZEN · ZEN 1–0 DIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

ZENIT

WLWWWW1–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 3–2

DINAMO MAKHACHKALA

LWLLLD1–3 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dynamo	12	+7	25
2	Zenit	11	+12	24
3	FC Krasnodar	12	+6	23
4	Spartak Moscow	11	+13	23
5	CSKA Moscow	11	+7	22
6	FC Orenburg	12	+2	16
7	Krylia Sovetov	12	0	15
8	Baltika	12	+2	14
9	Dinamo Makhachkala	11	−5	13
10	FC Rostov	11	−6	12
11	Rubin	12	−6	12
12	Akron	12	−6	12
13	Lokomotiv	11	+2	11
14	Akhmat	12	−2	11
15	Rodina Moskva	12	−14	9
16	Fakel	12	−12	6