Zenit v Akhmat

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Zenit win at 68%.
2. 2′Much as we predicted: Zenit was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 67% now. 0–0 · 67–21–11
3. 2′KICK-OFF Zenit v Akhmat
4. 14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Turpal-Ali Ibishev · Akhmat
5. 22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Pedro Henrique Silva dos Santos · Zenit
6. 25′25′: Lechi Sadulaev on the scoresheet for Akhmat. 0–0 · 61–27–12
7. 26′We said Zenit at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–1 · 32–28–39
8. 26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Zenit 0–1 Akhmat · Lechi Sadulaev (assist Egas Cacintura)
9. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Zenit win: 68% at kick-off, 32% now
10. 26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Akhmat win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Zenit win 32%)
11. 29′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Gustavo Mantuan · Zenit
12. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 30–29–41
13. 31′We said Zenit at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–29–41
14. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Zenit win: 68% at kick-off, 28% now
15. 41′We said Zenit at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–30–46
16. 45′An own goal by Akhmat's Arsen Adamov on 47′. 0–1 · 22–30–48
17. 45′HALF-TIME Zenit 0–1 Akhmat
18. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Zenit · On: Jhon Jhon · Off: Pedro Henrique Silva dos Santos
19. 48′We said Zenit at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 50%. 1–1 · 50–37–12
20. 48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Zenit 1–1 Akhmat · Arsen Adamov (own goal)
21. 48′SECOND HALF Zenit 1–1 Akhmat
22. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Zenit win: 68% at kick-off, 50% now
23. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Zenit win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Akhmat win 12%)
24. 50′We said Zenit at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–39–12
25. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Akhmat · On: Maksim Samorodov · Off: Kirill Shchetinin
26. 57′We said Zenit at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–44–12
27. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Zenit win 42%)
28. 63′62′: Maksim Glushenkov on the scoresheet for Zenit. 1–1 · 39–50–11
29. 63′We said Zenit at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–50–11
30. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Zenit win: 68% at kick-off, 38% now
31. 65′We published Zenit at 68%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
32. 65′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 90–9–1
33. 65′⚽ GOAL · 62' Zenit 2–1 Akhmat · Maksim Glushenkov (assist Artem Karpukas)
34. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Zenit win: 68% at kick-off, 90% now
35. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Zenit win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 9%)
36. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Akhmat · On: Mohamed Konate · Off: Georgiy Melkadze
37. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Akhmat · On: Manuel Keliano · Off: Turpal-Ali Ibishev
38. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Ismael Silva · Akhmat
39. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Akhmat · On: Aleksey Kasadzhikov · Off: Egas Cacintura
40. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Aleksey Kasadzhikov · Akhmat
41. 82′We published Zenit at 68%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
42. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Zenit · On: Kevin Andrade · Off: Marcilio Florencio Mota Filho
43. 88′Mohamed Konate scores for Akhmat on 86′. 2–1 · 97–3–0
44. 89′We said Zenit at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 2–2 · 7–90–2
45. 89′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 7–90–2
46. 89′⚽ GOAL · 86' Zenit 2–2 Akhmat · Mohamed Konate (assist Miroslav Bogosavac)
47. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Zenit win: 68% at kick-off, 7% now
48. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Zenit win 7%)
49. 91′90′: Jhon Jhon on the scoresheet for Zenit. 2–2 · 5–93–2
50. 92′We said Zenit at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–94–1
51. 92′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 99–1–0
52. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90' Zenit 3–2 Akhmat · Jhon Jhon
53. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Zenit win: 68% at kick-off, 99% now
54. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Zenit win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
55. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Zenit · On: Roman Vega · Off: Maksim Glushenkov
56. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Zenit · On: Felipe Augusto · Off: Luiz Henrique
57. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Denis Adamov · Zenit
58. 96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Roman Vega · Zenit
59. 97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Aleksandr Sobolev · Zenit
60. FTFULL TIME Zenit 3–2 Akhmat
61. FTZenit 3–2 Akhmat · Zenit win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.