Spartak Moscow v Rubin prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

Spartak Moscow 4–0 Rubin SPARTAK MOSCOW WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spartak Moscow win~~54%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.325

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.157

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spartak Moscow win at 54%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Spartak Moscow 54% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–27–19
2′KICK-OFF Spartak Moscow v Rubin
5′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Jakhongir Urozov · Rubin
6′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Manfred Ugalde · Spartak Moscow
19′Spartak Moscow ahead on 19′ through Pablo Solari. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–6
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Spartak Moscow 1–0 Rubin · Pablo Solari
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Spartak Moscow win: 54% at kick-off, 80% now
20′We said Spartak Moscow at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–14–6
21′Spartak Moscow ahead on 18′ through Pablo Solari. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–6
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 81–14–5
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Victor Parada · Spartak Moscow
45′Manfred Ugalde scores for Spartak Moscow on 43′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′We said Spartak Moscow at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′⚽ GOAL · 43' Spartak Moscow 2–0 Rubin · Manfred Ugalde (assist Ruslan Litvinov)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Spartak Moscow win: 54% at kick-off, 96% now
45′HALF-TIME Spartak Moscow 2–0 Rubin
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Rubin · On: Nazmi Gripshi · Off: Ulvi Babaev
47′SECOND HALF Spartak Moscow 2–0 Rubin
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Spartak Moscow · On: Igor Dmitriev · Off: Victor Parada
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Spartak Moscow · On: Daniil Denisov · Off: Marquinhos
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Spartak Moscow · On: Mirlind Daku · Off: Manfred Ugalde
67′Mirlind Daku scores for Spartak Moscow on 65′. 2–0 · 99–1–0
67′We said Spartak Moscow at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 65' Spartak Moscow 3–0 Rubin · Mirlind Daku (assist Pablo Solari)
68′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Rubin · On: Egor Teslenko · Off: Jakhongir Urozov
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Rubin · On: Ignacio Saavedra · Off: Veldin Hodza
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Rubin · On: Ruslan Bezrukov · Off: Jacques Siwe
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Spartak Moscow · On: Nikita Massalyga · Off: Pablo Solari
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Rubin · On: Daniil Motorin · Off: Eddie Salcedo
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Spartak Moscow · On: Ivan Sorokin · Off: Esequiel Barco
88′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Ivan Sorokin · Spartak Moscow
91′90′: Mirlind Daku on the scoresheet for Spartak Moscow. 3–0 · 100–0–0
94′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
94′⚽ GOAL · 90' Spartak Moscow 4–0 Rubin · Mirlind Daku
FTFULL TIME Spartak Moscow 4–0 Rubin
FTSpartak Moscow 4–0 Rubin · Spartak Moscow win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spartak Moscow are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Spartak Moscow 54%, draw 27%, Rubin 19%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Spartak Moscow v RubinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Spartak Moscow win54%

Draw27%

Rubin win19%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:45

RoundMatchday 11

VenueLukoil Arena

Line-ups

Spartak Moscow

4-1-4-1

Rubin

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spartak Moscow

Rubin

3Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · the Russian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Spartak Moscow	10	+9	20
8	Rubin	10	0	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Spartak Moscow

4-1-4-1

1 I. Pomazun

47 R. Zobnin

68 R. Litvinov

6 S. Babić

33 Víctor Parada

18 N. Umyarov

7 P. Solari

25 D. Prutsev

5 E. Barco

10 Marquinhos

9 M. Ugalde

Coach · Carcedo

Substitutes

19 · M. Daku

97 · D. Denisov

4 · A. Djiku

27 · I. Dmitriev

56 · A. Dovbnya

24 · Nikita Massalyga

62 · P. Polekh

17 · V. Saus

40 · I. Sorokin

3 · C. Wooh

86 · Pavel Egorov

Rubin

5-4-1

38 E. Staver

12 A. Arroyo

98 N. Lobov

5 I. Vujačić

13 J. Urozov

51 I. Rozhkov

22 V. Hodža

10 E. Salcedo

6 U. Iwu

7 U. Babaev

43 J. Siwe

Coach · Franc Artiga

Substitutes

2 · E. Teslenko

14 · I. Saavedra

25 · A. Nigmatullin

59 · D. N. Motorin

44 · D. Kuznetsov

86 · N. Korets

8 · B. Jočić

18 · M. Ignatjev

27 · A. Gritsaenko

23 · R. Bezrukov

11 · N. Gripshi

89 · Matvey Ivanov

Our number · spartak moscow winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market68%

Us54%

~~Market~~68%

We make Spartak Moscow a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Spartak Moscow v Rubin~~1.61 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 23 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 12~~5 v 8

~~The market · Spartak Moscow win~~68% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Spartak Moscow win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 60% to 68% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spartak Moscow win	54%	68%	−14
Draw	27%	20%	+7
Rubin win	19%	12%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	45%	52%	−7
Both teams to score	47%	45%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	72%	75%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	24%	32%	−8
Spartak Moscow or draw	81%	88%	−7
Spartak Moscow clean sheet	42%	–	–
Rubin clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 9.6 6.3 3.2 1 12.4 12.6 5.1 2 10.8 9.2 4.0 3 5.8 5.0 2.2 4 2.4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spartak Moscow down, Rubin across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,303 Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.6% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.56 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spartak Moscow at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Rubin away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Spartak Moscow, 0.87 for Rubin. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 16:15. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.56

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~RUB 1–1 SPA · SPA 2–1 RUB · RUB 0–2 SPA · RUB 2–1 SPA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 23 Aug

SPARTAK MOSCOW

WDLWWD2–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

RUBIN

DWDDDL1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zenit	11	+12	24
2	Dynamo	10	+7	22
3	CSKA Moscow	10	+9	22
4	FC Krasnodar	11	+6	22
5	Spartak Moscow	10	+9	20
6	Dinamo Makhachkala	11	−5	13
7	Baltika	10	+2	12
8	Rubin	10	0	12
9	FC Orenburg	10	+1	12
10	Krylia Sovetov	11	−2	12
11	Akhmat	11	−1	11
12	Lokomotiv	11	+2	11
13	FC Rostov	10	−6	11
14	Akron	11	−8	9
15	Fakel	11	−11	6
16	Rodina Moskva	10	−15	5