Rubin v Krylia Sovetov prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Rubin 0–2 Krylia Sovetov RUBIN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rubin win~~46%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.832

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.730

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rubin win at 46%.
4′Little has changed for our model: Rubin 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–29–26
4′KICK-OFF Rubin v Krylia Sovetov
24′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Fernando Constanza · Krylia Sovetov
30′We said Rubin at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–7
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Rubin 1–0 Krylia Sovetov
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Rubin win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
31′28′: Eddie Salcedo on the scoresheet for Rubin, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–7
34′GOAL DISALLOWED · 31' Eddie Salcedo · Rubin
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Rubin win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Rubin win: 46% at kick-off, 38% now
41′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Eddie Salcedo · Rubin
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Rubin win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Rubin win 38%)
45′HALF-TIME Rubin 0–0 Krylia Sovetov
46′SECOND HALF Rubin 0–0 Krylia Sovetov
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Jakhongir Urozov · Rubin
50′We said Rubin at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–22
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 32–47–21
60′We said Rubin at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Krylia Sovetov · On: Vitaliy Shitov · Off: Mihajlo Banjac
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Krylia Sovetov · On: Dani Fernández · Off: Nikolay Rasskazov
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Rubin win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
68′We said Rubin at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
73′An own goal by Rubin's Igor Vujacic on 72′. 0–0 · 20–66–14
73′We said Rubin at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–1 · 3–18–80
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Rubin 0–1 Krylia Sovetov · Igor Vujacic (own goal)
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Rubin win: 46% at kick-off, 3% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Krylia Sovetov win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 66%)
75′71′: Igor Vujacic puts it into the Rubin net, and it is 0–1. 0–1 · 2–16–81
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Rubin · On: Ruslan Bezrukov · Off: Veldin Hodza
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Rubin · On: Daniil Kuznetsov · Off: Ilya Rozhkov
78′77′: Amar Rahmanović on the scoresheet for Krylia Sovetov. 0–1 · 2–14–84
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Rubin 0–2 Krylia Sovetov · Amar Rahmanović (penalty)
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Rubin · On: Bogdan Jočić · Off: Ugochukwu Iwu
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Rubin · On: Dardan Shabanhaxhaj · Off: Nazmi Gripshi
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Krylia Sovetov · On: Islam Chesnokov · Off: Amar Rahmanović
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Krylia Sovetov · On: Dominik Oroz · Off: Maksim Vityugov
85′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Krylia Sovetov · On: Kazbek Mukailov · Off: Nikita Saltykov
87′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Dominik Oroz · Krylia Sovetov
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Islam Chesnokov · Krylia Sovetov
FTFULL TIME Rubin 0–2 Krylia Sovetov
FTRubin 0–2 Krylia Sovetov · Rubin win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rubin are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rubin 46%, draw 28%, Krylia Sovetov 26%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Rubin v Krylia SovetovBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Rubin win46%

Draw28%

Krylia Sovetov win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:15

RoundMatchday 12

VenueAk Bars Arena

RefereeMatvey Zaika

Line-ups

Rubin

5-4-1

Krylia Sovetov

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rubin

Krylia Sovetov

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Russian Premier League

Last match: 17 Oct · the Russian Premier League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Rubin	11	−4	12
11	Krylia Sovetov	11	−2	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rubin

5-4-1

38 E. Staver

12 A. Arroyo

2 E. Teslenko

5 I. Vujačić

13 J. Urozov

51 I. Rozhkov

6 U. Iwu

22 V. Hodža

14 I. Saavedra

11 N. Gripshi

10 E. Salcedo

Coach · Franc Artiga

Substitutes

7 · U. Babaev

99 · D. Shabanhaxhaj

71 · I. Samoshnikov

23 · R. Bezrukov

27 · A. Gritsaenko

8 · B. Jočić

70 · D. Kabutov

86 · N. Korets

44 · D. Kuznetsov

98 · N. Lobov

59 · D. N. Motorin

25 · A. Nigmatullin

Krylia Sovetov

4-2-3-1

80 N. Kokarev

22 Fernando Costanza

23 N. Chernov

47 S. Bozhin

2 K. Pechenin

8 M. Vityugov

4 Y. Gorshkov

15 N. Rasskazov

7 M. Banjac

14 N. Saltykov

11 A. Rahmanović

Coach · S. Bulatov

Substitutes

73 · V. Shitov

5 · D. Oroz

67 · Kazbek Mukailov

18 · I. Lepskiy

39 · E. Frolov

72 · Dani Fernández

17 · I. Chesnokov

97 · I. Akhmetov

20 · K. Stolbov

Our number · rubin winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

46% The market41%

Us46%

~~Market~~41%

We make Rubin a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rubin v Krylia Sovetov~~1.48 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 12~~10 v 11

~~The market · Rubin win~~41% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rubin win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rubin win	46%	41%	+5
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Krylia Sovetov win	26%	31%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	47%	46%	+1
Both teams to score	51%	52%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	71%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	27%	−2
Rubin or draw	74%	69%	+5
Rubin clean sheet	35%	–	–
Krylia Sovetov clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.2 7.3 4.5 1 10.6 13.3 6.5 2.3 2 8.6 9.0 4.8 3 4.3 4.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rubin down, Krylia Sovetov across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,309 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.3% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.88 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rubin at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Krylia Sovetov away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Rubin, 1.06 for Krylia Sovetov. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.88

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KRY 0–0 RUB · RUB 2–0 KRY · KRY 1–1 RUB · RUB 0–2 KRY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

RUBIN

WDDDLL3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–4

KRYLIA SOVETOV

DDWDDL3–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dynamo	12	+7	25
2	Zenit	11	+12	24
3	Spartak Moscow	11	+13	23
4	CSKA Moscow	11	+7	22
5	FC Krasnodar	11	+6	22
6	FC Orenburg	12	+2	16
7	Dinamo Makhachkala	11	−5	13
8	Baltika	11	+2	13
9	FC Rostov	11	−6	12
10	Rubin	11	−4	12
11	Krylia Sovetov	11	−2	12
12	Akron	12	−6	12
13	Lokomotiv	11	+2	11
14	Akhmat	12	−2	11
15	Fakel	11	−11	6
16	Rodina Moskva	11	−15	6