Rubin v Dynamo prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Rubin 0–1 Dynamo DYNAMO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dynamo win~~40%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.547

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.383

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dynamo win at 40%.
3′Much as we predicted: Dynamo was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 33–27–40
4′Much as we predicted: Dynamo was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 33–27–40
45′30′ and it is 0–1: Jakhongir Urozov on the scoresheet for Dynamo. 0–1 · 7–20–72
51′A red card for Rubin on 37′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 6–20–74
55′A red card for Rubin on 37′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 5–20–75
76′We published Dynamo at 40%. Our model now makes it 86%. 0–1 · 1–13–86
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Dynamo win: 40% at kick-off, 86% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Dynamo win: 40% at kick-off, 74% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Dynamo win: 40% at kick-off, 86% now
90′Dynamo are down to ten from 82′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 0–0–100
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Dynamo win: 40% at kick-off, 86% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Dynamo win: 40% at kick-off, 74% now
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Jakhongir Urozov · Rubin
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Dynamo win: 40% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Rubin 0–1 Dynamo
FTRubin 0–1 Dynamo · Dynamo win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Rubin win32%

Draw28%

Dynamo win40%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:30

VenueAk Bars Arena

RefereeIvan Abrosimov

Line-ups

Rubin

5-4-1

Dynamo

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Rubin

Dynamo

25Days since last match24

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Dynamo	9	+6	19
6	Rubin	9	+1	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Rubin

5-4-1

38 Evgeniy Staver

12 Anderson Arroyo

98 Nikita Lobov

5 Igor Vujačić

13 Jakhongir Urozov

51 Ilya Rozhkov

71 Ilya Samoshnikov

22 Veldin Hodža

14 Ignacio Saavedra

11 Nazmi Gripshi

43 Jacques Siwe

Coach · Franc Artiga

Substitutes

6 · Ugochukwu Iwu

23 · Ruslan Bezrukov

7 · Ulvi Babaev

10 · Eddie Salcedo

44 · Daniil Kuznetsov

25 · Artur Nigmatullin

86 · Nikita Korets

2 · Egor Teslenko

18 · Maksim Ignatjev

27 · Aleksey Gritsaenko

8 · Bogdan Jočić

59 · Daniil Motorin

Dynamo

4-2-3-1

99 Andrey Lunev

4 Juan Cáceres

2 Nicolás Marichal

57 David Ricardo

8 Rubens

15 Danil Glebov

74 Daniil Fomin

91 Yaroslav Gladyshev

10 Bitello

11 Arthur Gomes

70 Konstantin Tyukavin

Coach · Sandro Schwarz

Substitutes

56 · Leon Zaydenzal

88 · Viktor Okishor

77 · Josué Casimir

7 · Dmitri Skopintsev

33 · Ivan Sergeev

1 · Kurban Rasulov

31 · Igor Leshchuk

6 · Roberto Fernández

60 · Timofey Marinkin

28 · Maximiliano Gutiérrez

50 · Aleksandr Kutitskiy

21 · Anton Miranchuk

Our number · dynamo winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

40% The market50%

Us40%

~~Market~~50%

We make Dynamo a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dynamo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 49% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rubin win	32%	23%	+9
Draw	28%	27%	+2
Dynamo win	40%	50%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	48%	46%	+2
Both teams to score	54%	50%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	70%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	27%	27%	0
Rubin or draw	60%	50%	+10
Rubin clean sheet	25%	–	–
Dynamo clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 8.6 9.2 7.1 3.3 1 8.0 13.4 8.5 4.0 2 5.5 7.5 5.2 2.4 3 2.3 3.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rubin down, Dynamo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,297 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.62 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rubin at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Dynamo away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Rubin, 1.39 for Dynamo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~DYN 0–1 RUB · RUB 0–0 DYN · DYN 3–1 RUB · RUB 0–4 DYN

Form · last six in Premier League

RUBIN

DDWDDD1–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

DYNAMO

LWWWWW0–3 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zenit	10	+11	21
2	FC Krasnodar	10	+6	21
3	Spartak Moscow	10	+9	20
4	CSKA Moscow	9	+6	19
5	Dynamo	9	+6	19
6	Rubin	9	+1	12
7	FC Orenburg	10	+1	12
8	Krylia Sovetov	10	−1	12
9	Dinamo Makhachkala	10	−5	12
10	Baltika	9	+2	11
11	FC Rostov	10	−6	11
12	Lokomotiv	10	+2	10
13	Akhmat	9	0	10
14	Akron	10	−8	8
15	Rodina Moskva	9	−12	5
16	Fakel	10	−12	3