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Rodina Moskva v FC Orenburg

Rodina Moskva

2–2Full time

FC Orenburg

Premier League · MON 19 OCT · Arena Khimki

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:00

Rodina Moskva 2–2 FC Orenburg FC ORENBURG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Orenburg win~~38%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.793

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.790

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 42 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Orenburg win at 38%.
1′KICK-OFF Rodina Moskva v FC Orenburg
2′Much as we predicted: FC Orenburg was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 35–28–38
6′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Dmitriy Rybchinskiy · FC Orenburg
15′14′: Soltmurad Bakaev on the scoresheet for Rodina Moskva. 0–0 · 34–30–36
16′We said FC Orenburg at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 64–21–16
16′⚽ GOAL · 14' Rodina Moskva 1–0 FC Orenburg · Soltmurad Bakaev
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' FC Orenburg win: 38% at kick-off, 16% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Rodina Moskva win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was FC Orenburg win 36%)
24′We said FC Orenburg at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 65–21–14
25′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Evgeniy Bolotov · FC Orenburg
26′Jordhy Thompson scores for FC Orenburg on 25′. 1–0 · 65–21–14
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Rodina Moskva 1–1 FC Orenburg · Jordhy Thompson (penalty)
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' FC Orenburg win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Jordhy Thompson · FC Orenburg
27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Soltmurad Bakaev · Rodina Moskva
38′7 shots for FC Orenburg, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 31–36–33
39′FC Orenburg have had 8 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 31–36–33
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Rodina Moskva win 65%)
45′HALF-TIME Rodina Moskva 1–1 FC Orenburg
46′SECOND HALF Rodina Moskva 1–1 FC Orenburg
47′FC Orenburg have had 12 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 29–40–31
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Artem Maksimenko · Rodina Moskva
52′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 28–43–29
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Emil Tsenov · FC Orenburg
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' FC Orenburg win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
60′We said FC Orenburg at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 25–49–26
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Rodina Moskva · On: Artur Gharibyan · Off: Soltmurad Bakaev
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Rodina Moskva · On: Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov · Off: Artem Maksimenko
64′We said FC Orenburg at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 23–52–24
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Damian Puebla · FC Orenburg
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Rodrigo Becão · Rodina Moskva
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Aleksey Tataev · FC Orenburg
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC Orenburg · On: Renat Golybin · Off: Damian Puebla
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC Orenburg · On: Andrey Kasadzhikov · Off: Evgeniy Bolotov
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC Orenburg · On: Egor Nazarenko · Off: Dmitriy Rybchinskiy
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Sergey Volkov · Rodina Moskva
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' FC Orenburg win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
75′Jordhy Thompson scores for FC Orenburg on 73′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–84
75′We published FC Orenburg at 38%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–2 · 2–15–84
75′⚽ GOAL · 73' Rodina Moskva 1–2 FC Orenburg · Jordhy Thompson (penalty)
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' FC Orenburg win: 38% at kick-off, 84% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' FC Orenburg win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 65%)
76′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 2–14–84
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Igor Silva · Rodina Moskva
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Rodina Moskva · On: Ivan Timoshenko · Off: Andrey Egorychev
77′We published FC Orenburg at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 1–13–85
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Yordy Reyna · Rodina Moskva
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' FC Orenburg win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Andrey Kasadzhikov · FC Orenburg
82′We published FC Orenburg at 38%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Rodina Moskva · On: Kirill Ushatov · Off: Leon Musaev
89′We published FC Orenburg at 38%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' FC Orenburg · On: Anton Lukashov · Off: Jordhy Thompson
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Egor Nazarenko · FC Orenburg
91′Ivan Timoshenko scores for Rodina Moskva on 90′. 1–2 · 0–4–96
92′We said FC Orenburg at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 2–2 · 3–94–3
92′⚽ GOAL · 90' Rodina Moskva 2–2 FC Orenburg · Ivan Timoshenko
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' FC Orenburg win: 38% at kick-off, 3% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 94% (was FC Orenburg win 96%)
93′17 shots for FC Orenburg, 12 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 2–95–2
93′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 2–95–2
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' FC Orenburg · On: Danila Vedernikov · Off: Gedeon Guzina
FTFULL TIME Rodina Moskva 2–2 FC Orenburg
FTRodina Moskva 2–2 FC Orenburg · FC Orenburg win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with FC Orenburg just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Rodina Moskva 35%, draw 27%, FC Orenburg 38%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Rodina Moskva v FC OrenburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Rodina Moskva win35%

Draw27%

FC Orenburg win38%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueArena Khimki

RefereeInal Tanashev

Line-ups

Rodina Moskva

4-2-3-1

FC Orenburg

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rodina Moskva

FC Orenburg

4Days since last match4

Last match: 15 Oct · the Russian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	FC Orenburg	10	+1	12
16	Rodina Moskva	10	−15	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rodina Moskva

4-2-3-1

13 S. Volkov

2 Igor Silva

50 Rodrigo Becão

75 M. Nadé

20 D. Machado

5 A. Egorychev

38 L. Musaev

9 A. Maksimenko

10 Y. Reyna

17 S. Bakaev

7 G. Onugkha

Coach · Jonatan Alba

Substitutes

1 · S. Aydarov

18 · M. Abdusalamov

80 · S. Bessmertny

95 · K. Cissoko

6 · R. Fishchenko

77 · A. Gharibyan

3 · L. Goglichidze

72 · A. Gordyushenko

26 · A. Meshchaninov

19 · D. Tananeev

99 · I. Timoshenko

23 · K. Ushatov

FC Orenburg

4-2-3-1

1 B. Ovsyannikov

24 M. Sivis

6 J. Palacios

5 A. Tataev

26 E. Tsenov

78 R. Kul

57 E. Bolotov

10 J. Thompson

8 D. Puebla

20 D. Rybchinskiy

30 G. Guzina

Coach · I. Akhmetzyanov

Substitutes

3 · D. Vedernikov

80 · M. Pykhcheev

11 · E. Nazarenko

63 · O. Minatulaev

22 · A. Lukashov

4 · D. Khotulev

38 · A. Kasimov

77 · A. Kasadzhikov

7 · J. González

27 · Renat Golybin

21 · Benjamín Bosch

35 · A. Degtev

Our number · fc orenburg winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

38% The market41%

Us38%

~~Market~~41%

We make FC Orenburg a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rodina Moskva v FC Orenburg~~1.37 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 12~~16 v 8

~~The market · FC Orenburg win~~41% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Orenburg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 35% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rodina Moskva win	35%	31%	+4
Draw	27%	28%	−1
FC Orenburg win	38%	41%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	53%	53%	0
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	77%	75%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	33%	−2
Rodina Moskva or draw	62%	59%	+3
Rodina Moskva clean sheet	25%	–	–
FC Orenburg clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.5 7.7 6.2 3.0 1 7.3 12.8 8.2 4.0 2 5.7 7.9 5.6 2.7 3 2.7 3.7 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rodina Moskva down, FC Orenburg across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,307 Premier League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.5% of games this season, across 87 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rodina Moskva at home: 1.20 scored, 2.80 conceded a game (last 5). FC Orenburg away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Rodina Moskva, 1.43 for FC Orenburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 17:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ROD 1–4 FCO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 22 Aug

RODINA MOSKVA

LLLLDL1–3 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–3

FC ORENBURG

DDDLDW0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dynamo	11	+9	25
2	Zenit	11	+12	24
3	Spartak Moscow	11	+13	23
4	CSKA Moscow	11	+7	22
5	FC Krasnodar	11	+6	22
6	Dinamo Makhachkala	11	−5	13
7	Baltika	11	+2	13
8	FC Orenburg	10	+1	12
9	Rubin	11	−4	12
10	FC Rostov	11	−6	12
11	Krylia Sovetov	11	−2	12
12	Lokomotiv	11	+2	11
13	Akhmat	11	−1	11
14	Akron	11	−8	9
15	Fakel	11	−11	6
16	Rodina Moskva	10	−15	5