Rodina Moskva v FC Krasnodar prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Rodina MoskvaDrawFC Krasnodar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:45

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Krasnodar 63%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Krasnodar are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rodina Moskva 16%, draw 21%, FC Krasnodar 63%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Rodina Moskva v FC KrasnodarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Rodina Moskva win16%

Draw21%

FC Krasnodar win63%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:45

RoundMatchday 13

VenueArena Khimki

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rodina Moskva

FC Krasnodar

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Russian Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FC Krasnodar	12	+6	23
15	Rodina Moskva	12	−14	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc krasnodar winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

63% The market58%

Us63%

~~Market~~58%

We make FC Krasnodar a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rodina Moskva v FC Krasnodar~~1.01 – 2.22

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W0 D5 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 23~~15 v 3

~~The market · FC Krasnodar win~~58% · ours 63%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Krasnodar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rodina Moskva win	16%	19%	−3
Draw	21%	23%	−2
FC Krasnodar win	63%	58%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	62%	60%	+2
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	83%	80%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	40%	39%	+1
Rodina Moskva or draw	37%	42%	−5
Rodina Moskva clean sheet	12%	–	–
FC Krasnodar clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 9.6%

0123450 5.0 8.1 9.6 7.1 4.0 1 3.4 9.6 9.5 6.9 3.9 2 2.1 4.5 4.8 3.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rodina Moskva down, FC Krasnodar across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,313 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.9% of games this season, across 93 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Rodina Moskva at home: 1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). FC Krasnodar away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Rodina Moskva, 2.22 for FC Krasnodar. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 5 Sept

RODINA MOSKVA

LLDLDW0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–0

FC KRASNODAR

DDDLDD2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dynamo	12	+7	25
2	Zenit	11	+12	24
3	FC Krasnodar	12	+6	23
4	Spartak Moscow	11	+13	23
5	CSKA Moscow	11	+7	22
6	FC Orenburg	12	+2	16
7	Krylia Sovetov	12	0	15
8	Baltika	12	+2	14
9	Dinamo Makhachkala	11	−5	13
10	FC Rostov	11	−6	12
11	Rubin	12	−6	12
12	Akron	12	−6	12
13	Lokomotiv	11	+2	11
14	Akhmat	12	−2	11
15	Rodina Moskva	12	−14	9
16	Fakel	12	−12	6