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Krylia Sovetov v Spartak Moscow

Krylia Sovetov

1–1Full time

Spartak Moscow

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Solidarnost Samara Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:06

Krylia Sovetov 1–1 Spartak Moscow SPARTAK MOSCOW WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Spartak Moscow win~~47%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.841

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.944

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spartak Moscow win at 47%.
2′KICK-OFF Krylia Sovetov v Spartak Moscow
4′Much as we predicted: Spartak Moscow was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 27–25–48
24′A red card for Spartak Moscow on 24′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 27–29–44
24′🟥 RED CARD · 24' Aleksandr Maksimenko · Spartak Moscow
28′SUBSTITUTION · 26' Spartak Moscow · On: Ilya Pomazun · Off: Marquinhos
45′🟥 RED CARD · 24' Aleksandr Maksimenko · Spartak Moscow
45′SUBSTITUTION · 26' Spartak Moscow · On: Ilya Pomazun · Off: Marquinhos
45′HALF-TIME Krylia Sovetov 0–0 Spartak Moscow
46′SECOND HALF Krylia Sovetov 0–0 Spartak Moscow
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Amar Rahmanović · Krylia Sovetov
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Krylia Sovetov · On: Vitaliy Shitov · Off: Amar Rahmanović Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Krylia Sovetov · On: Ilzat Akhmetov · Off: Nikita Saltykov
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Krylia Sovetov · On: Denis Makarov · Off: Maksim Vityugov Corrected
65′🟥 RED CARD · 24' Aleksandr Maksimenko · Spartak Moscow
65′SUBSTITUTION · 26' Spartak Moscow · On: Ilya Pomazun · Off: Marquinhos
65′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Amar Rahmanović · Krylia Sovetov
65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Krylia Sovetov · On: Ilzat Akhmetov · Off: Nikita Saltykov
65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Krylia Sovetov · On: Denis Makarov · Off: Maksim Vityugov Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Krylia Sovetov · On: Vitaliy Shitov · Off: Maksim Vityugov
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Spartak Moscow · On: Daniil Denisov · Off: Roman Zobnin
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Spartak Moscow · On: Victor Parada · Off: Pablo Solari
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Krylia Sovetov · On: Kirill Stolbov · Off: Kirill Pechenin
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Spartak Moscow · On: Igor Dmitriev · Off: Esequiel Barco
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Spartak Moscow · On: Danil Prutsev · Off: Srdjan Babic
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Krylia Sovetov 0–0 Spartak Moscow · Manfred Ugalde
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Krylia Sovetov 0–1 Spartak Moscow · Manfred Ugalde
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Manfred Ugalde · Spartak Moscow
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Krylia Sovetov · On: Kazbek Mukailov · Off: Yuriy Gorshkov
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Krylia Sovetov 0–1 Spartak Moscow · Martin Kramarič
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Krylia Sovetov 1–1 Spartak Moscow · Martin Kramarič
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Gedson Fernandes · Spartak Moscow
FTFULL TIME Krylia Sovetov 1–1 Spartak Moscow
FTKrylia Sovetov 1–1 Spartak Moscow · Spartak Moscow win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Krylia Sovetov win27%

Draw26%

Spartak Moscow win47%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:30

Venue · Solidarnost Samara Arena

Referee · Nikita Novikov

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Krylia Sovetov

4-2-3-1

80 Nikita Kokarev

15 Nikolay Rasskazov

23 Nikita Chernov

47 Sergey Bozhin

2 Kirill Pechenin

22 Fernando Costanza

4 Yuriy Gorshkov

14 Nikita Saltykov

8 Maksim Vityugov

10 Martin Kramarič

11 Amar Rahmanović

Coach · Sergey Bulatov

Substitutes

77 · Denis Makarov

97 · Ilzat Akhmetov

73 · Vladislav Shitov

20 · Kirill Stolbov

67 · Kazbek Mukailov

39 · Evgeni Frolov

3 · Thomas Galdames

5 · Dominik Oroz

72 · Dani Fernández

18 · Ivan Lepskiy

26 · Jimmy Marín

7 · Mihajlo Banjac

Spartak Moscow

4-1-4-1

98 Aleksandr Maksimenko

83 Gedson Fernandes

3 Christopher Wooh

6 Srđan Babić

47 Roman Zobnin

68 Ruslan Litvinov

7 Pablo Solari

18 Nail Umyarov

5 Ezequiel Barco

10 Marquinhos

9 Manfred Ugalde

Coach · Carlos Carcedo Juan

Substitutes

1 · Ilya Pomazun

97 · Daniil Denisov

33 · Victor Parada

27 · Igor Dmitriev

25 · Danyl Prutsev

56 · Alexander Dovbnya

62 · Pavel Polekh

40 · Ivan Sorokin

24 · Nikita Massalyga

17 · Vladislav Saus

19 · Mirlind Daku

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Krylia Sovetov

4-2-3-1

80 Nikita Kokarev

15 Nikolay Rasskazov

23 Nikita Chernov

47 Sergey Bozhin

2 Kirill Pechenin

22 Fernando Costanza

4 Yuriy Gorshkov

14 Nikita Saltykov

8 Maksim Vityugov

10 Martin Kramarič

11 Amar Rahmanović

Coach · Sergey Bulatov

Substitutes

77 · Denis Makarov

97 · Ilzat Akhmetov

73 · Vladislav Shitov

20 · Kirill Stolbov

67 · Kazbek Mukailov

39 · Evgeni Frolov

3 · Thomas Galdames

5 · Dominik Oroz

72 · Dani Fernández

18 · Ivan Lepskiy

26 · Jimmy Marín

7 · Mihajlo Banjac

Spartak Moscow

4-1-4-1

98 Aleksandr Maksimenko

83 Gedson Fernandes

3 Christopher Wooh

6 Srđan Babić

47 Roman Zobnin

68 Ruslan Litvinov

7 Pablo Solari

18 Nail Umyarov

5 Ezequiel Barco

10 Marquinhos

9 Manfred Ugalde

Coach · Carlos Carcedo Juan

Substitutes

1 · Ilya Pomazun

97 · Daniil Denisov

33 · Victor Parada

27 · Igor Dmitriev

25 · Danyl Prutsev

56 · Alexander Dovbnya

62 · Pavel Polekh

40 · Ivan Sorokin

24 · Nikita Massalyga

17 · Vladislav Saus

19 · Mirlind Daku

Our number · spartak moscow winPublished 10 Oct 15:43

47% The market56%

Us47%

~~Market~~56%

We make Spartak Moscow a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · spartak moscow win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 58% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Krylia Sovetov win	27%	20%	+6
Draw	26%	23%	+3
Spartak Moscow win	47%	56%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	54%	57%	−2
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	78%	0
Over 3.5 goals	32%	35%	−3
Krylia Sovetov or draw	53%	44%	+9
Krylia Sovetov clean sheet	19%	–	–
Spartak Moscow clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.9 8.6 7.9 4.4 1 6.0 12.2 9.3 5.2 2.2 2 4.2 6.7 5.6 3.1 3 2.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Krylia Sovetov down, Spartak Moscow across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,293 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Spartak Moscow away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Krylia Sovetov, 1.66 for Spartak Moscow. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:08. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KRY 2–1 SPA · SPA 2–1 KRY · KRY 0–2 SPA · SPA 3–0 KRY

Form · last six in Premier League

KRYLIA SOVETOV

LWDDWD1–4 · 3–0 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

SPARTAK MOSCOW

WWDLWW2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Krasnodar	9	+7	21
2	Spartak Moscow	9	+9	19
3	CSKA Moscow	9	+6	19
4	Dynamo	9	+6	19
5	Zenit	9	+10	18
6	Rubin	9	+1	12
7	Dinamo Makhachkala	9	−1	12
8	Baltika	9	+2	11
9	Krylia Sovetov	9	−1	11
10	FC Rostov	10	−6	11
11	Akhmat	9	0	10
12	FC Orenburg	9	−3	9
13	Akron	10	−8	8
14	Lokomotiv	9	−3	7
15	Rodina Moskva	9	−12	5
16	Fakel	9	−7	3