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Krylia Sovetov v Fakel

Krylia Sovetov

1–2Full time

Fakel

Premier League · SAT 17 OCT · Solidarnost Samara Arena

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Krylia Sovetov 1–2 Fakel KRYLIA SOVETOV WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Krylia Sovetov win~~51%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.970

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.885

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Krylia Sovetov win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Krylia Sovetov was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–28–21
1′KICK-OFF Krylia Sovetov v Fakel
18′We said Krylia Sovetov at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–26–52
18′Fakel ahead on 17′ through Clayton Sampaio Pereira. 0–1. 0–1 · 22–26–52
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Krylia Sovetov 0–1 Fakel
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Krylia Sovetov win: 51% at kick-off, 22% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Fakel win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Krylia Sovetov win 22%)
18′GOAL DISALLOWED · 18' Fakel
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Krylia Sovetov win: 51% at kick-off, 48% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Krylia Sovetov win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Fakel win 21%)
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Krylia Sovetov 0–1 Fakel · Clayton Sampaio Pereira
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Krylia Sovetov win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Fakel win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Krylia Sovetov win 21%)
26′Martin Kramarič scores for Krylia Sovetov on 25′. 0–1 · 19–26–54
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Krylia Sovetov 1–1 Fakel · Martin Kramarič (assist Kirill Pechenin)
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Krylia Sovetov win: 51% at kick-off, 46% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Krylia Sovetov win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Fakel win 20%)
38′Krylia Sovetov have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 42–38–20
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Krylia Sovetov win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′We said Krylia Sovetov at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–42–19
45′HALF-TIME Krylia Sovetov 1–1 Fakel
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Vyacheslav Yakimov · Fakel
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Fakel · On: Ravil Netfullin · Off: Vyacheslav Yakimov
46′SECOND HALF Krylia Sovetov 1–1 Fakel
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Krylia Sovetov win 38%)
48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Albert Gabaraev · Fakel
53′Krylia Sovetov have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 35–47–18
55′We said Krylia Sovetov at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–48–17
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Krylia Sovetov win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
61′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–1 · 31–53–16
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Krylia Sovetov · On: Ilzat Akhmetov · Off: Amar Rahmanović
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Krylia Sovetov · On: Vitaliy Shitov · Off: Martin Kramarič
63′We said Krylia Sovetov at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–55–15
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Maksim Vityugov · Krylia Sovetov
68′67′: Matvey Bardachev on the scoresheet for Fakel. 1–1 · 26–61–14
69′We said Krylia Sovetov at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
69′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 4–21–75
69′⚽ GOAL · 67' Krylia Sovetov 1–2 Fakel · Matvey Bardachev (assist Ilnur Alshin)
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Krylia Sovetov win: 51% at kick-off, 4% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Fakel win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 21%)
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Fakel · On: Axel Gnapi · Off: Aleksandr Koksharov
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Fakel · On: Maksim Turishchev · Off: Belajdi Pusi
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Krylia Sovetov · On: Mihajlo Banjac · Off: Maksim Vityugov
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Krylia Sovetov win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
84′17 shots for Krylia Sovetov, 11 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 0–9–91
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Sergey Bozhin · Krylia Sovetov
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Krylia Sovetov · On: Dominik Oroz · Off: Nikolay Rasskazov
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Krylia Sovetov · On: Kirill Stolbov · Off: Kirill Pechenin
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Fakel · On: Anton Kovalev · Off: Darko Todorovic
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Ilnur Alshin · Fakel
96′Krylia Sovetov have had 20 attempts to 12 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
FTFULL TIME Krylia Sovetov 1–2 Fakel
FTKrylia Sovetov 1–2 Fakel · Krylia Sovetov win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Krylia Sovetov are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Krylia Sovetov 51%, draw 28%, Fakel 21%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Krylia Sovetov v FakelBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Krylia Sovetov win51%

Draw28%

Fakel win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSolidarnost Samara Arena

Line-ups

Krylia Sovetov

4-2-3-1

Fakel

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Krylia Sovetov

Fakel

3Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · the Russian Cup

Last match: 13 Oct · the Russian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Krylia Sovetov	10	−1	12
16	Fakel	10	−12	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Krylia Sovetov

4-2-3-1

80 Nikita Kokarev

15 Nikolay Rasskazov

23 Nikita Chernov

47 Sergey Bozhin

2 Kirill Pechenin

22 Fernando Costanza

4 Yuriy Gorshkov

14 Nikita Saltykov

8 Maksim Vityugov

10 Martin Kramarič

11 Amar Rahmanović

Coach · S. Bulatov

Substitutes

97 · Ilzat Akhmetov

73 · Vladislav Shitov

7 · Mihajlo Banjac

5 · Dominik Oroz

20 · Kirill Stolbov

39 · Evgeni Frolov

3 · Thomas Galdames

72 · Dani Fernández

18 · Ivan Lepskiy

26 · Jimmy Marín

17 · Islam Chesnokov

77 · Denis Makarov

Fakel

5-3-2

96 Igor Obukhov

55 Darko Todorović

5 Albert Gabaraev

40 Clayton Sampaio

53 Matvey Bardachev

10 Ilnur Alshin

11 Alexey Sutormin

23 Vyacheslav Yakimov

8 Abdula Bagamaev

19 Belajdi Pusi

90 Aleksandr Koksharov

Coach · Aleksey Rebko

Substitutes

52 · Ravil Netfullin

9 · Axel Gnapi

7 · Maksim Turishchev

17 · Anton Kovalev

1 · Daniil Frolkin

35 · Vyacheslav Dorovskikh

22 · Houdaifa El Mahasni

44 · Yuriy Zhuravlev

18 · Kirill Simonov

97 · Butta Magomedov

Our number · krylia sovetov winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market48%

Us51%

~~Market~~48%

We make Krylia Sovetov a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Krylia Sovetov v Fakel~~1.51 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D4 L0 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 3~~10 v 16

~~The market · Krylia Sovetov win~~48% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Krylia Sovetov win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Krylia Sovetov win	51%	48%	+3
Draw	28%	28%	0
Fakel win	21%	24%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	42%	46%	−4
Both teams to score	46%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	69%	70%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	27%	−5
Krylia Sovetov or draw	79%	76%	+3
Krylia Sovetov clean sheet	43%	–	–
Fakel clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 10.7 7.0 3.5 1 13.0 13.0 5.2 2 10.5 8.9 3.9 3 5.3 4.5 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Krylia Sovetov down, Fakel across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,300 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.88 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Fakel away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Krylia Sovetov, 0.87 for Fakel. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.88

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~FAK 1–1 KRY · KRY 2–0 FAK · FAK 0–1 KRY · KRY 3–0 FAK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 22 Aug

KRYLIA SOVETOV

WDDWDD3–0 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

FAKEL

DLLDLL0–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dynamo	10	+7	22
2	CSKA Moscow	10	+9	22
3	Zenit	10	+11	21
4	FC Krasnodar	10	+6	21
5	Spartak Moscow	10	+9	20
6	Rubin	10	0	12
7	FC Orenburg	10	+1	12
8	Baltika	10	+2	12
9	Dinamo Makhachkala	10	−5	12
10	Krylia Sovetov	10	−1	12
11	Akhmat	10	0	11
12	FC Rostov	10	−6	11
13	Lokomotiv	10	+2	10
14	Akron	10	−8	8
15	Rodina Moskva	10	−15	5
16	Fakel	10	−12	3