FC Rostov v Lokomotiv prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FC RostovDrawLokomotiv

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Lokomotiv 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lokomotiv are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Rostov 33%, draw 28%, Lokomotiv 39%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on FC Rostov v LokomotivBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

FC Rostov win33%

Draw28%

Lokomotiv win39%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenueRostov Arena

RefereeVladimir Moskalev

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Rostov

Lokomotiv

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · the Russian Premier League

Last match: 17 Oct · the Russian Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	FC Rostov	11	−6	12
13	Lokomotiv	11	+2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lokomotiv winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market29%

Us39%

~~Market~~29%

We make Lokomotiv a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Rostov v Lokomotiv~~1.27 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 11~~9 v 13

~~The market · Lokomotiv win~~29% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lokomotiv win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Rostov win	33%	42%	−9
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Lokomotiv win	39%	29%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	50%	45%	+5
Both teams to score	55%	51%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	69%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	28%	25%	+3
FC Rostov or draw	61%	71%	−10
FC Rostov clean sheet	25%	–	–
Lokomotiv clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 8.1 8.6 6.8 3.2 1 7.7 13.2 8.5 4.0 2 5.6 7.7 5.4 2.5 3 2.4 3.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Rostov down, Lokomotiv across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,309 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.3% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Rostov at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Lokomotiv away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for FC Rostov, 1.41 for Lokomotiv. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCR 1–0 LOK · FCR 1–3 LOK · LOK 3–3 FCR · LOK 0–2 FCR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

FC ROSTOV

LWLLWD0–1 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–0

LOKOMOTIV

LWLDWD0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dynamo	12	+7	25
2	Zenit	11	+12	24
3	Spartak Moscow	11	+13	23
4	CSKA Moscow	11	+7	22
5	FC Krasnodar	11	+6	22
6	FC Orenburg	12	+2	16
7	Dinamo Makhachkala	11	−5	13
8	Baltika	11	+2	13
9	FC Rostov	11	−6	12
10	Rubin	11	−4	12
11	Krylia Sovetov	11	−2	12
12	Akron	12	−6	12
13	Lokomotiv	11	+2	11
14	Akhmat	12	−2	11
15	Rodina Moskva	12	−14	9
16	Fakel	12	−12	6