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FC Rostov v Akron

FC Rostov

1–0Full time

Akron

Premier League · FRI 9 OCT · Rostov Arena

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:01

FC Rostov 1–0 Akron FC ROSTOV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Rostov win~~50%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.380

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.353

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Rostov win at 50%.
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' FC Rostov 1–0 Akron · Ivan Komarov
45′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Srđan Blagojević · Akron
45′HALF-TIME FC Rostov 1–0 Akron
52′SECOND HALF FC Rostov 1–0 Akron
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Rostov · On: Ronaldo · Off: Timur Suleymanov
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Akron · On: Milutin Vidosavljević · Off: karlen hovhannisyan
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Akron · On: Artem Shumanskiy · Off: Dudu Rodrigues
69′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Stefan Loncar · Akron
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Akron · On: Maksim Boldyrev · Off: Gilson Benchimol
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FC Rostov · On: Daniil Shantaliy · Off: Aleksey Mironov
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Rostov · On: Daniil Khlusevich · Off: Viktor Melekhin
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Daniil Khlusevich · FC Rostov
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FC Rostov · On: Imran Aznaurov · Off: Olakunle Olusegun
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FC Rostov · On: Dmitriy Chistyakov · Off: Konstantin Kuchaev
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Akron · On: Yomar Rocha · Off: Kristijan Bistrović
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Akron · On: Khetag Khosonov · Off: Vyacheslav Bardybakhin
FTFC Rostov 1–0 Akron · FC Rostov win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Rostov win50%

Draw26%

Akron win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:30

Venue · Rostov Arena

Referee · Danil Naboka

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FC Rostov

4-3-3

84 Artem Petrov

4 Viktor Melekhin

3 Oumar Sako

40 Ygor Nogueira

87 Andrey Langovich

8 Aleksey Mironov

27 Danila Prokhin

18 Konstantin Kuchaev

10 Ivan Komarov

99 Timur Suleymanov

6 Olakunle Olusegun

Coach · Dmitri Kirichenko

Substitutes

7 · Ronaldo

21 · Daniil Shantaliy

26 · Daniil Khlusevich

78 · Dmitry Chistyakov

73 · Imran Aznaurov

1 · Rustam Yatimov

34 · Daniil Golikov

59 · Nikita Babakin

22 · David Semenchuk

5 · Yaroslav Mikhailov

16 · Maksim Mukhin

91 · Anton Shamonin

Akron

4-3-3

88 Vitali Gudiev

13 Vyacheslav Bardybakhin

26 Joao Escoval

19 Marat Bokoev

21 Roberto Fernández

15 Stefan Lončar

8 Kristijan Bistrović

6 Karlen Hovhannisyan

11 Dudu

9 Slobodan Tedić

7 Gilson Tavares

Coach · Srdjan Blagojevic

Substitutes

55 · Milutin Vidosavljević

99 · Artem Shumanskiy

91 · Maksim Boldyrev

2 · Yomar Rocha

80 · Khetag Khosonov

32 · Ignat Terekhovskiy

24 · Ionuț Nedelcearu

81 · Nikita Bazilevskiy

89 · Denis Popenkov

69 · Arseniy Dmitriev

5 · Aleksa Đurasović

10 · Kevin Arevalo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Rostov

4-3-3

84 Artem Petrov

4 Viktor Melekhin

3 Oumar Sako

40 Ygor Nogueira

87 Andrey Langovich

8 Aleksey Mironov

27 Danila Prokhin

18 Konstantin Kuchaev

10 Ivan Komarov

99 Timur Suleymanov

6 Olakunle Olusegun

Coach · Dmitri Kirichenko

Substitutes

7 · Ronaldo

21 · Daniil Shantaliy

26 · Daniil Khlusevich

78 · Dmitry Chistyakov

73 · Imran Aznaurov

1 · Rustam Yatimov

34 · Daniil Golikov

59 · Nikita Babakin

22 · David Semenchuk

5 · Yaroslav Mikhailov

16 · Maksim Mukhin

91 · Anton Shamonin

Akron

4-3-3

88 Vitali Gudiev

13 Vyacheslav Bardybakhin

26 Joao Escoval

19 Marat Bokoev

21 Roberto Fernández

15 Stefan Lončar

8 Kristijan Bistrović

6 Karlen Hovhannisyan

11 Dudu

9 Slobodan Tedić

7 Gilson Tavares

Coach · Srdjan Blagojevic

Substitutes

55 · Milutin Vidosavljević

99 · Artem Shumanskiy

91 · Maksim Boldyrev

2 · Yomar Rocha

80 · Khetag Khosonov

32 · Ignat Terekhovskiy

24 · Ionuț Nedelcearu

81 · Nikita Bazilevskiy

89 · Denis Popenkov

69 · Arseniy Dmitriev

5 · Aleksa Đurasović

10 · Kevin Arevalo

Our number · fc rostov winPublished 9 Oct 17:35

50% The market52%

Us50%

~~Market~~52%

We make FC Rostov a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc rostov win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Rostov win	50%	52%	−2
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Akron win	24%	22%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	52%	46%	+6
Both teams to score	55%	48%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	77%	71%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	30%	27%	+4
FC Rostov or draw	76%	78%	−2
FC Rostov clean sheet	34%	–	–
Akron clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.4 5.9 3.8 1 9.4 12.3 6.2 2.3 2 8.7 9.4 5.2 3 4.9 5.3 2.9 4 2.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Rostov down, Akron across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,292 Premier League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.9% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Rostov at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Akron away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for FC Rostov, 1.10 for Akron. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 17:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~AKR 1–3 FCR · FCR 0–1 AKR · AKR 2–3 FCR · FCR 0–2 AKR

Form · last six in Premier League

FC ROSTOV

DLLWLL1–1 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 0–3

AKRON

DLDDDW3–3 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Krasnodar	9	+7	21
2	Spartak Moscow	9	+9	19
3	CSKA Moscow	9	+6	19
4	Dynamo	9	+6	19
5	Zenit	9	+10	18
6	Rubin	9	+1	12
7	Dinamo Makhachkala	9	−1	12
8	Baltika	9	+2	11
9	Krylia Sovetov	9	−1	11
10	Akhmat	9	0	10
11	FC Orenburg	9	−3	9
12	Akron	9	−7	8
13	FC Rostov	9	−7	8
14	Lokomotiv	9	−3	7
15	Rodina Moskva	9	−12	5
16	Fakel	9	−7	3