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FC Orenburg v Dinamo Makhachkala

FC Orenburg

4–0Full time

Dinamo Makhachkala

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Gazovik Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:46

FC Orenburg 4–0 Dinamo Makhachkala FC ORENBURG WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Orenburg win~~39%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.554

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.526

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Orenburg win at 39%.
2′KICK-OFF FC Orenburg v Dinamo Makhachkala
3′Little has changed for our model: FC Orenburg 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–30
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' FC Orenburg 0–0 Dinamo Makhachkala
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' FC Orenburg 1–0 Dinamo Makhachkala · Gedeon Guzina
24′Gedeon Guzina scores for FC Orenburg on 17′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–20–9
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' FC Orenburg win: 39% at kick-off, 72% now
39′We said FC Orenburg at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–20–6
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' FC Orenburg 1–0 Dinamo Makhachkala · Jhon Alex Palacios
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' FC Orenburg 2–0 Dinamo Makhachkala · Jhon Alex Palacios
45′HALF-TIME FC Orenburg 2–0 Dinamo Makhachkala
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Dinamo Makhachkala · On: Andres Alarcon · Off: Ilyas Akhmedov
47′SECOND HALF FC Orenburg 2–0 Dinamo Makhachkala
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Dinamo Makhachkala · On: Valdemiro Pinto Domingos · Off: Marat Apshatsev
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' FC Orenburg 3–0 Dinamo Makhachkala · Jhon Alex Palacios
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' FC Orenburg 3–0 Dinamo Makhachkala · Gedeon Guzina
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Nikita Karabashev · Dinamo Makhachkala
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' FC Orenburg 3–0 Dinamo Makhachkala · Jordhy Thompson
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Orenburg · On: Anton Lukashov · Off: Jordhy Thompson
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' FC Orenburg 4–0 Dinamo Makhachkala · Jordhy Thompson
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Orenburg · On: Andrey Kasadzhikov · Off: Dmitriy Rybchinskiy
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Dinamo Makhachkala · On: Dmitriy Aleksandrov · Off: Houssem Mrezigue
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Dinamo Makhachkala · On: Kirill Zinovich · Off: Gamid Agalarov
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' FC Orenburg · On: Danila Khotulev · Off: Aleksey Tataev
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' FC Orenburg · On: Renat Golybin · Off: Damian Puebla
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Dinamo Makhachkala · On: Vladimir Khubulov · Off: Daniil Lesovoy
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Orenburg · On: Egor Nazarenko · Off: Gedeon Guzina
FTFULL TIME FC Orenburg 4–0 Dinamo Makhachkala
FTFC Orenburg 4–0 Dinamo Makhachkala · FC Orenburg win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Orenburg win39%

Draw31%

Dinamo Makhachkala win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:00

Venue · Gazovik Stadium

Referee · Stanislav Matveev

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FC Orenburg

4-2-3-1

1 Bogdan Ovsyannikov

24 Maxime Sivis

6 Jhon Palacios

5 Aleksey Tataev

26 Emil Tsenov

78 Ruslan Kul

57 Evgeniy Bolotov

10 Jordhy Thompson

8 Damián Puebla

20 Dmitry Rybchinskiy

30 Gedeon Guzina

Coach · Ildar Akhmetzyanov

Substitutes

77 · Andrey Kasadzhikov

22 · Anton Lukashov

4 · Danila Khotulev

27 · Renat Golybin

11 · Egor Nazarenko

35 · Aleksandr Degtev

2 · Stanislav Poroykov

38 · Artem Kasimov

3 · Danila Vedernikov

63 · Omar Minatulaev

80 · Mikhail Pykhcheev

21 · Benjamín Bosch

Dinamo Makhachkala

4-2-3-1

33 Nikita Karabashev

77 Temirkan Sundukov

43 Ilyas Akhmedov

99 Mutalip Alibekov

23 Makhmud Makhamadzhonov

6 Marat Apshatsev

16 Houssem Eddine Mrezigue

47 Nikita Glushkov

14 Daler Kuzyaev

88 Daniil Lesovoy

25 Gamid Agalarov

Coach · Vadim Evseev

Substitutes

24 · Andrés Alarcón

11 · Miro

30 · Dmitriy Aleksandrov

19 · Kirill Zinovich

8 · Vladimir Khubulov

1 · David Volk

39 · Timur Magomedov

13 · Soslan Kagermazov

9 · Razhab Magomedov

10 · Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad

21 · Abdulpasha Dzhabrailov

28 · Serder Serderov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Orenburg

4-2-3-1

1 Bogdan Ovsyannikov

24 Maxime Sivis

6 Jhon Palacios

5 Aleksey Tataev

26 Emil Tsenov

78 Ruslan Kul

57 Evgeniy Bolotov

10 Jordhy Thompson

8 Damián Puebla

20 Dmitry Rybchinskiy

30 Gedeon Guzina

Coach · Ildar Akhmetzyanov

Substitutes

77 · Andrey Kasadzhikov

22 · Anton Lukashov

4 · Danila Khotulev

27 · Renat Golybin

11 · Egor Nazarenko

35 · Aleksandr Degtev

2 · Stanislav Poroykov

38 · Artem Kasimov

3 · Danila Vedernikov

63 · Omar Minatulaev

80 · Mikhail Pykhcheev

21 · Benjamín Bosch

Dinamo Makhachkala

4-2-3-1

33 Nikita Karabashev

77 Temirkan Sundukov

43 Ilyas Akhmedov

99 Mutalip Alibekov

23 Makhmud Makhamadzhonov

6 Marat Apshatsev

16 Houssem Eddine Mrezigue

47 Nikita Glushkov

14 Daler Kuzyaev

88 Daniil Lesovoy

25 Gamid Agalarov

Coach · Vadim Evseev

Substitutes

24 · Andrés Alarcón

11 · Miro

30 · Dmitriy Aleksandrov

19 · Kirill Zinovich

8 · Vladimir Khubulov

1 · David Volk

39 · Timur Magomedov

13 · Soslan Kagermazov

9 · Razhab Magomedov

10 · Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad

21 · Abdulpasha Dzhabrailov

28 · Serder Serderov

Our number · fc orenburg winPublished 10 Oct 11:13

39% The market41%

Us39%

~~Market~~41%

We make FC Orenburg a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc orenburg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Orenburg win	39%	41%	−2
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Dinamo Makhachkala win	30%	30%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	38%	46%	−9
Both teams to score	45%	52%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	65%	70%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	18%	27%	−9
FC Orenburg or draw	70%	70%	+1
FC Orenburg clean sheet	37%	–	–
Dinamo Makhachkala clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 12.5 10.0 5.6 1 12.2 14.2 6.6 2.2 2 7.9 7.8 3.9 3 3.2 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Orenburg down, Dinamo Makhachkala across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,293 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Orenburg at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Makhachkala away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for FC Orenburg, 1.00 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 10:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DIN 1–0 FCO · FCO 1–1 DIN · FCO 2–1 DIN · DIN 2–1 FCO

Form · last six in Premier League

FC ORENBURG

DDDDLD1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–0

DINAMO MAKHACHKALA

WLLWLL4–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Krasnodar	9	+7	21
2	Spartak Moscow	9	+9	19
3	CSKA Moscow	9	+6	19
4	Dynamo	9	+6	19
5	Zenit	9	+10	18
6	Rubin	9	+1	12
7	Dinamo Makhachkala	9	−1	12
8	Baltika	9	+2	11
9	Krylia Sovetov	9	−1	11
10	FC Rostov	10	−6	11
11	Akhmat	9	0	10
12	FC Orenburg	9	−3	9
13	Akron	10	−8	8
14	Lokomotiv	9	−3	7
15	Rodina Moskva	9	−12	5
16	Fakel	9	−7	3