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FC Krasnodar v Zenit

FC Krasnodar

2–3Full time

Zenit

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Ozon Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

FC Krasnodar 2–3 Zenit FC KRASNODAR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Krasnodar win~~37%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.673

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.576

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Krasnodar win at 37%.
2′Little has changed for our model: FC Krasnodar 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
3′Little has changed for our model: FC Krasnodar 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
42′40′ and it is 0–0: Maksim Glushenkov on the scoresheet for Zenit. 0–0 · 31–40–28
42′40′ and it is 0–1: Maksim Glushenkov on the scoresheet for Zenit. 0–1 · 9–22–69
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Zenit win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' FC Krasnodar win: 37% at kick-off, 31% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Zenit win 28%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' FC Krasnodar win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was FC Krasnodar win 31%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' FC Krasnodar 0–2 Zenit · Maksim Glushenkov (assist Pedro Henrique Silva dos Santos)
47′SECOND HALF FC Krasnodar 0–2 Zenit
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was FC Krasnodar win 31%)
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was FC Krasnodar win 31%)
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was FC Krasnodar win 31%)
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was FC Krasnodar win 31%)
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Douglas Santos · Zenit
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' FC Krasnodar 0–2 Zenit · Aleksandr Sobolev
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' FC Krasnodar 0–3 Zenit · Aleksandr Sobolev
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' FC Krasnodar 0–3 Zenit · Joao Batxi
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' FC Krasnodar 1–3 Zenit · Joao Batxi
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Krasnodar · On: Magomed Ozdoev · Off: Aleksandr Chernikov Corrected
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' FC Krasnodar 2–3 Zenit · Jhon Cordoba
73′⚽ GOAL · 71' FC Krasnodar 2–3 Zenit · Jhon Cordoba
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Vitor Tormena · FC Krasnodar
81′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Vitor Tormena · FC Krasnodar
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Zenit · On: Daniil Kondakov · Off: Maksim Glushenkov Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Zenit · On: Jhon Jhon · Off: Luiz Henrique
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' FC Krasnodar · On: Juan Manuel Boselli · Off: Christian Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Krasnodar · On: Álex Maizon Rodríguez González · Off: Joao Batxi Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FC Krasnodar · On: Sergey Petrov · Off: Daniil Utkin Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Magomed Ozdoev · FC Krasnodar
FTFULL TIME FC Krasnodar 2–3 Zenit
FTFC Krasnodar 2–3 Zenit · FC Krasnodar win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Krasnodar win37%

Draw30%

Zenit win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:30

Venue · Ozon Arena

Referee · Inal Tanashev

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FC Krasnodar

4-3-3

1 Stanislav Agkatsev

17 Valentin Paltsev

3 Vítor Tormena

5 Jubal

15 Lucas Olaza

18 Christian

53 Aleksandr Chernikov

8 Augusto Douglas

47 Daniil Utkin

9 Jhon Córdoba

11 João Batxi

Coach · Murad Musaev

Substitutes

40 · Ilya Vakhaniya

21 · Magomed Ozdoev

23 · Juan Boselli

2 · Maizon Rodriguez

98 · Sergey Petrov

16 · Aleksandr Koryakin

59 · Artem Khmarin

6 · Kevin Pina

10 · Dmitry Vorobyev

Zenit

4-2-3-1

16 Denis Adamov

31 Gustavo Mantuan

33 Nino

28 Nuraly Alip

3 Douglas Santos

5 Wílmar Barrios

93 Artem Karpukas

11 Luiz Henrique

10 Maksim Glushenkov

20 Pedro

7 Aleksandr Sobolev

Coach · Sergey Semak

Substitutes

25 · Kevin Andrade

61 · Daniil Kondakov

14 · Jhon Jhon

96 · Maksim Zaytsev

57 · Bogdan Moskvichev

15 · Vyacheslav Karavaev

82 · Sergey Volkov

66 · Román Vega

38 · Amir Musaev

21 · Alexandr Erokhin

51 · Vadim Shilov

9 · Felipe Augusto

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Krasnodar

4-3-3

1 Stanislav Agkatsev

17 Valentin Paltsev

3 Vítor Tormena

5 Jubal

15 Lucas Olaza

18 Christian

53 Aleksandr Chernikov

8 Augusto Douglas

47 Daniil Utkin

9 Jhon Córdoba

11 João Batxi

Coach · Murad Musaev

Substitutes

40 · Ilya Vakhaniya

21 · Magomed Ozdoev

23 · Juan Boselli

2 · Maizon Rodriguez

98 · Sergey Petrov

16 · Aleksandr Koryakin

59 · Artem Khmarin

6 · Kevin Pina

10 · Dmitry Vorobyev

Zenit

4-2-3-1

16 Denis Adamov

31 Gustavo Mantuan

33 Nino

28 Nuraly Alip

3 Douglas Santos

5 Wílmar Barrios

93 Artem Karpukas

11 Luiz Henrique

10 Maksim Glushenkov

20 Pedro

7 Aleksandr Sobolev

Coach · Sergey Semak

Substitutes

25 · Kevin Andrade

61 · Daniil Kondakov

14 · Jhon Jhon

96 · Maksim Zaytsev

57 · Bogdan Moskvichev

15 · Vyacheslav Karavaev

82 · Sergey Volkov

66 · Román Vega

38 · Amir Musaev

21 · Alexandr Erokhin

51 · Vadim Shilov

9 · Felipe Augusto

Our number · fc krasnodar winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

37% The market33%

Us37%

~~Market~~33%

We make FC Krasnodar a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc krasnodar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 34% to 33% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Krasnodar win	37%	33%	+4
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Zenit win	33%	38%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	43%	47%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	52%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	70%	70%	0
Over 3.5 goals	22%	27%	−5
FC Krasnodar or draw	67%	62%	+5
FC Krasnodar clean sheet	32%	–	–
Zenit clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 10.5 9.5 6.1 2.4 1 10.2 13.9 7.4 2.9 2 7.0 7.9 4.6 3 2.9 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Krasnodar down, Zenit across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,293 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Krasnodar at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Zenit away: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for FC Krasnodar, 1.16 for Zenit. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 17:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ZEN 1–1 FCK · FCK 0–2 ZEN · ZEN 4–1 FCK · FCK 2–0 ZEN

Form · last six in Premier League

FC KRASNODAR

WWWDDD1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0

ZENIT

WLWLWW3–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Krasnodar	9	+7	21
2	Spartak Moscow	9	+9	19
3	CSKA Moscow	9	+6	19
4	Dynamo	9	+6	19
5	Zenit	9	+10	18
6	Rubin	9	+1	12
7	Dinamo Makhachkala	9	−1	12
8	Baltika	9	+2	11
9	Krylia Sovetov	9	−1	11
10	FC Rostov	10	−6	11
11	Akhmat	9	0	10
12	FC Orenburg	9	−3	9
13	Akron	10	−8	8
14	Lokomotiv	9	−3	7
15	Rodina Moskva	9	−12	5
16	Fakel	9	−7	3