FC Krasnodar v Baltika

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Krasnodar win at 55%.
2. 3′Much as we predicted: FC Krasnodar was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–27–19
3. 3′KICK-OFF FC Krasnodar v Baltika
4. 20′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Baltika
5. 31′We published FC Krasnodar at 55%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–14–5
6. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' FC Krasnodar 1–0 Baltika
7. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' FC Krasnodar win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
8. 32′Jhon Cordoba scores for FC Krasnodar on 30′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–14–4
9. 33′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 81–14–4
10. 45′HALF-TIME FC Krasnodar 1–0 Baltika
11. 54′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Baltika · On: Fahd Moufi · Off: Maksim Petrov
12. 54′SECOND HALF FC Krasnodar 1–0 Baltika
13. 54′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Baltika · On: Ivan Belikov · Off: Ilya Petrov
14. 58′We said FC Krasnodar at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–49–16
15. 59′We said FC Krasnodar at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–50–15
16. 59′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 34–50–15
17. 59′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45+14' FC Krasnodar
18. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+14' FC Krasnodar win: 55% at kick-off, 34% now
19. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+14' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was FC Krasnodar win 82%)
20. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Eldar Ćivić · Baltika
21. 61′We published FC Krasnodar at 55%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
22. 61′⚽ GOAL · 45+16' FC Krasnodar 1–0 Baltika · Jhon Cordoba
23. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+16' FC Krasnodar win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
24. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+16' FC Krasnodar win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 52%)
25. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+18' FC Krasnodar win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
26. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Ilya Vakhania · FC Krasnodar
27. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Christian · FC Krasnodar
28. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' FC Krasnodar · On: Magomed Ozdoev · Off: Daniil Utkin
29. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Baltika · On: Vladislav Pospelov · Off: Konstantin Shiltsov
30. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Baltika · On: Chinonso Offor · Off: Eduardo Anderson Corrected
31. 75′We published FC Krasnodar at 55%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
32. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FC Krasnodar · On: Juan Manuel Boselli · Off: Christian
33. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' FC Krasnodar · On: Sergey Petrov · Off: Ilya Vakhania
34. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Baltika · On: Ilya Porokhov · Off: Eldar Ćivić
35. 84′We published FC Krasnodar at 55%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
36. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' FC Krasnodar win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
37. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Lucas Olaza · FC Krasnodar
38. 93′Loris Mouyokolo scores for Baltika on 90′. 1–0 · 99–1–0
39. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Murad Musaev · FC Krasnodar
40. 94′We said FC Krasnodar at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–1 · 2–97–1
41. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' FC Krasnodar 1–1 Baltika · Loris Mouyokolo (assist Vladislav Pospelov)
42. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' FC Krasnodar win: 55% at kick-off, 2% now
43. 94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was FC Krasnodar win 99%)
44. FTFULL TIME FC Krasnodar 1–1 Baltika
45. FTFC Krasnodar 1–1 Baltika · FC Krasnodar win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.