Fakel v Rodina Moskva prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Fakel 0–1 Rodina Moskva FAKEL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fakel win~~42%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.771

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.843

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fakel win at 42%.
2′Much as we predicted: Fakel was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–29–29
2′KICK-OFF Fakel v Rodina Moskva
29′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Fakel
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Fakel win 37%)
45′43′: German Onugkha on the scoresheet for Rodina Moskva, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–24–66
45′We said Fakel at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–24–66
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 10–24–66
45′⚽ GOAL · 43' Fakel 0–1 Rodina Moskva · German Onugkha (penalty)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Fakel win: 42% at kick-off, 10% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Rodina Moskva win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 41%)
45′HALF-TIME Fakel 0–1 Rodina Moskva
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Fakel · On: Anton Kovalev · Off: Darko Todorovic
46′SECOND HALF Fakel 0–1 Rodina Moskva
48′We said Fakel at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–67
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Rodina Moskva · On: Iker Pozo · Off: Andrey Egorychev
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Leon Musaev · Rodina Moskva
63′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Albert Gabaraev · Fakel
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Fakel · On: Maksim Turishchev · Off: Belajdi Pusi
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Fakel · On: Axel Gnapi · Off: Aleksandr Koksharov
66′We said Fakel at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rodina Moskva · On: Ruslan Fishchenko · Off: Leon Musaev
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rodina Moskva · On: Artem Maksimenko · Off: Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Fakel win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Fakel · On: Ravil Netfullin · Off: Butta Magomedov
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Anton Kovalev · Fakel
78′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Ruslan Fishchenko · Rodina Moskva
79′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Aleksandr Koksharov · Fakel
79′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Aleksandr Koksharov · Fakel
80′🟨 YELLOW · 76' German Onugkha · Rodina Moskva
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Rodina Moskva · On: Artur Gharibyan · Off: Rodrigo Becão
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Rodina Moskva · On: Dmitriy Tananeev · Off: Soltmurad Bakaev
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Fakel · On: Nikolay Giorgobiani · Off: Vyacheslav Yakimov
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Artem Meshchaninov · Rodina Moskva
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Abdula Bagamaev · Fakel
98′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Iker Pozo · Rodina Moskva
FTFULL TIME Fakel 0–1 Rodina Moskva
FTFakel 0–1 Rodina Moskva · Fakel win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fakel are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fakel 42%, draw 29%, Rodina Moskva 29%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Fakel v Rodina MoskvaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Fakel win42%

Draw29%

Rodina Moskva win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueFakel Stadium

RefereeIvan Abrosimov

Line-ups

Fakel

5-3-2

Rodina Moskva

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fakel

Rodina Moskva

7Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · the Russian Premier League

Last match: 19 Oct · the Russian Premier League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Fakel	11	−11	6
16	Rodina Moskva	11	−15	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Fakel

5-3-2

96 I. Obukhov

55 D. Todorović

5 A. Gabaraev

40 Clayton

53 M. Bardachev

10 I. Alshin

97 B. Magomedov

23 V. Yakimov

8 A. Bagamaev

19 B. Pusi

90 A. Koksharov

Coach · Aleksey Rebko

Substitutes

35 · V. Dorovskikh

22 · H. El Mahasni

1 · D. Frolkin

99 · N. Giorgobiani

9 · A. Gnapi Dable

17 · A. Kovalev

52 · R. Netfullin

18 · K. Simonov

7 · M. Turishchev

20 · I. Yurganov

44 · Y. Zhuravlev

Rodina Moskva

5-4-1

13 S. Volkov

2 Igor Silva

50 Rodrigo Becão

38 L. Musaev

26 A. Meshchaninov

20 D. Machado

18 M. Abdusalamov

10 Y. Reyna

5 A. Egorychev

17 S. Bakaev

7 G. Onugkha

Coach · Jonatan Alba

Substitutes

23 · K. Ushatov

99 · I. Timoshenko

19 · D. Tananeev

8 · Iker Pozo

75 · M. Nadé

9 · A. Maksimenko

3 · L. Goglichidze

77 · A. Gharibyan

6 · R. Fishchenko

95 · K. Cissoko

1 · S. Aydarov

80 · S. Bessmertny

Our number · fakel winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market46%

Us42%

~~Market~~46%

We make Fakel a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fakel v Rodina Moskva~~1.39 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 6~~15 v 16

~~The market · Fakel win~~46% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fakel win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fakel win	42%	46%	−4
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Rodina Moskva win	29%	26%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	45%	47%	−2
Both teams to score	50%	51%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	71%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	27%	−3
Fakel or draw	71%	74%	−3
Fakel clean sheet	34%	–	–
Rodina Moskva clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.7 8.1 5.0 1 10.5 13.4 6.8 2.6 2 8.0 8.5 4.7 3 3.8 4.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fakel down, Rodina Moskva across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,309 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.3% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fakel at home: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Rodina Moskva away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Fakel, 1.10 for Rodina Moskva. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FAK 1–3 ROD · ROD 2–0 FAK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

FAKEL

LLDLLW0–1 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 2–1

RODINA MOSKVA

LLLDLD0–3 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dynamo	11	+9	25
2	Zenit	11	+12	24
3	Spartak Moscow	11	+13	23
4	CSKA Moscow	11	+7	22
5	FC Krasnodar	11	+6	22
6	FC Orenburg	12	+2	16
7	Dinamo Makhachkala	11	−5	13
8	Baltika	11	+2	13
9	FC Rostov	11	−6	12
10	Rubin	11	−4	12
11	Krylia Sovetov	11	−2	12
12	Lokomotiv	11	+2	11
13	Akhmat	12	−2	11
14	Akron	11	−8	9
15	Fakel	11	−11	6
16	Rodina Moskva	11	−15	6