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Fakel v Lokomotiv

Fakel

0–5Full time

Lokomotiv

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Fakel Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06

Fakel 0–5 Lokomotiv LOKOMOTIV WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lokomotiv win~~45%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.450

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.581

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lokomotiv win at 45%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Lokomotiv 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 26–28–46
3′KICK-OFF Fakel v Lokomotiv
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Fakel 0–0 Lokomotiv · Nikolay Titkov
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Fakel 0–1 Lokomotiv · Nikolay Titkov
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Danila Godyaev · Lokomotiv
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Fakel 0–1 Lokomotiv · Nikolay Komlichenko
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Fakel 0–2 Lokomotiv · Nikolay Komlichenko
37′Nikolay Komlichenko scores for Lokomotiv on 32′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–95
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Egor Pogostnov · Lokomotiv
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Lokomotiv win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
45′We said Lokomotiv at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
45′HALF-TIME Fakel 0–2 Lokomotiv
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Fakel · On: Aleksandr Koksharov · Off: Anton Kovalev
47′SECOND HALF Fakel 0–2 Lokomotiv
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Fakel 0–2 Lokomotiv · César Montes
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Fakel 0–3 Lokomotiv · César Montes
58′49′ and it is 0–3: César Montes on the scoresheet for Lokomotiv. 0–3 · 0–0–100
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Lokomotiv · On: Lucas Fasson · Off: Danila Godyaev
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Fakel 0–3 Lokomotiv · Egor Pogostnov
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Fakel · On: Ravil Netfullin · Off: Aleksey Sutormin
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Fakel · On: Ilnur Alshin · Off: Abdula Bagamaev
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Fakel · On: Belajdi Pusi · Off: Maksim Turishchev
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Fakel 0–4 Lokomotiv · Egor Pogostnov
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Fakel 0–4 Lokomotiv · Egor Pogostnov
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Fakel 0–4 Lokomotiv · Nikolay Komlichenko
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Fakel 0–5 Lokomotiv · Nikolay Komlichenko
77′Nikolay Komlichenko scores for Lokomotiv on 74′ — 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Lokomotiv · On: Vadim Rakov · Off: Zelimkhan Bakaev
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Lokomotiv · On: Ilya Eremeev · Off: Sergey Pinyaev
90′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Lokomotiv · On: Mikhail Shchetinin · Off: Aleksandr Rudenko
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Lokomotiv · On: Aleksandr Kovalenko · Off: Sergey Babkin
FTFULL TIME Fakel 0–5 Lokomotiv
FTFakel 0–5 Lokomotiv · Lokomotiv win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Fakel win25%

Draw30%

Lokomotiv win45%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:15

Venue · Fakel Stadium

Referee · Andrey Prokopov

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Fakel

3-4-3

35 V. Dorovskikh

5 A. Gabaraev

40 Clayton Sampaio

44 Y. Zhuravlev

55 D. Todorovic

97 B. Magomedov

23 V. Yakimov

8 A. Bagamaev

17 A. Kovalev

7 M. Turishchev

11 A. Sutormin

Coach · Oleg Vasilenko

Substitutes

96 · I. Obukhov

1 · D. Frolkin

27 · S. Magkeev

22 · H. El Mhassani

52 · R. Netfullin

10 · I. Alshin

90 · A. Koksharov

9 · A. Gnapi Dable

19 · B. Pusi

66 · N. Patkovich

Lokomotiv

4-2-3-1

1 A. Mitryushkin

24 M. Nenakhov

59 E. Pogostnov

23 C. Montes

47 D. Godyaev

18 N. Titkov

6 S. Babkin

7 Z. Bakaev

19 A. Rudenko

9 S. Pinyaev

27 N. Komlichenko

Coach · Mikhail Galaktionov

Substitutes

22 · I. Lantratov

16 · D. Veselov

14 · G. Dzhikiya

5 · G. Nyamsi

3 · Lucas Fasson

8 · A. Kovalenko

75 · I. Eremeev

88 · M. Shchetinin

74 · D. Chevardin

11 · V. Rakov

99 · R. Myalkovskiy

63 · V. Golubev

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Fakel

3-4-3

35 V. Dorovskikh

5 A. Gabaraev

40 Clayton Sampaio

44 Y. Zhuravlev

55 D. Todorovic

97 B. Magomedov

23 V. Yakimov

8 A. Bagamaev

17 A. Kovalev

7 M. Turishchev

11 A. Sutormin

Coach · Oleg Vasilenko

Substitutes

96 · I. Obukhov

1 · D. Frolkin

27 · S. Magkeev

22 · H. El Mhassani

52 · R. Netfullin

10 · I. Alshin

90 · A. Koksharov

9 · A. Gnapi Dable

19 · B. Pusi

66 · N. Patkovich

Lokomotiv

4-2-3-1

1 A. Mitryushkin

24 M. Nenakhov

59 E. Pogostnov

23 C. Montes

47 D. Godyaev

18 N. Titkov

6 S. Babkin

7 Z. Bakaev

19 A. Rudenko

9 S. Pinyaev

27 N. Komlichenko

Coach · Mikhail Galaktionov

Substitutes

22 · I. Lantratov

16 · D. Veselov

14 · G. Dzhikiya

5 · G. Nyamsi

3 · Lucas Fasson

8 · A. Kovalenko

75 · I. Eremeev

88 · M. Shchetinin

74 · D. Chevardin

11 · V. Rakov

99 · R. Myalkovskiy

63 · V. Golubev

Our number · lokomotiv winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

45% The market38%

Us45%

~~Market~~38%

We make Lokomotiv a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.4.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fakel win	25%	33%	−8
Draw	30%	29%	0
Lokomotiv win	45%	38%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	40%	44%	−4
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	67%	68%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	24%	−4
Fakel or draw	55%	62%	−7
Fakel clean sheet	26%	–	–
Lokomotiv clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 11.5 12.7 9.3 4.2 1 8.4 13.6 8.5 3.8 2 4.5 5.9 4.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fakel down, Lokomotiv across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,293 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fakel at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lokomotiv away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Fakel, 1.35 for Lokomotiv. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 13:02. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FAK 0–1 LOK · LOK 2–1 FAK · LOK 2–0 FAK · FAK 1–4 LOK

Form · last six in Premier League

FAKEL

LDLLDL0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–1

LOKOMOTIV

DLLWLD1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Krasnodar	9	+7	21
2	Spartak Moscow	9	+9	19
3	CSKA Moscow	9	+6	19
4	Dynamo	9	+6	19
5	Zenit	9	+10	18
6	Rubin	9	+1	12
7	Dinamo Makhachkala	9	−1	12
8	Baltika	9	+2	11
9	Krylia Sovetov	9	−1	11
10	FC Rostov	10	−6	11
11	Akhmat	9	0	10
12	FC Orenburg	9	−3	9
13	Akron	10	−8	8
14	Lokomotiv	9	−3	7
15	Rodina Moskva	9	−12	5
16	Fakel	9	−7	3