Dynamo v CSKA Moscow

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Dynamo win at 42%.
2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Dynamo 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–30
3. 2′KICK-OFF Dynamo v CSKA Moscow
4. 19′We said Dynamo at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–18–11
5. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Dynamo 1–0 CSKA Moscow
6. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Dynamo win: 42% at kick-off, 70% now
7. 19′GOAL DISALLOWED · 19' Dynamo
8. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Dynamo win: 42% at kick-off, 40% now
9. 20′A goal for Dynamo on 18′. 0–0 · 40–31–29
10. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Luciano Gondou · CSKA Moscow
11. 32′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
12. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Dynamo 1–0 CSKA Moscow
13. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Dynamo win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
14. 33′31′: Konstantin Tyukavin on the scoresheet for Dynamo, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
15. 35′Dynamo are down to ten from 33′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 72–19–9
16. 35′🟥 RED CARD · 33' Andrey Lunev · Dynamo
17. 45′CSKA Moscow level it on 43′ through Ivan Oblyakov. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–39–27
18. 45′⚽ GOAL · 43' Dynamo 1–1 CSKA Moscow · Ivan Oblyakov (penalty)
19. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Dynamo win: 42% at kick-off, 35% now
20. 45′HALF-TIME Dynamo 1–1 CSKA Moscow
21. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Dynamo win 34%)
22. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Daniil Fomin · Dynamo
23. 46′SECOND HALF Dynamo 1–1 CSKA Moscow
24. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Dynamo win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
25. 57′We said Dynamo at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–46–24
26. 59′We said Dynamo at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–48–23
27. 68′We said Dynamo at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–57–19
28. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' CSKA Moscow · On: Matheus Alves · Off: Kirill Glebov
29. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Dynamo · On: Maximiliano Gutierrez · Off: Arthur Gomes
30. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Dynamo · On: Maksim Osipenko · Off: Dmitriy Skopintsev
31. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' CSKA Moscow · On: Maksim Voronov · Off: Luciano Gondou
32. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Dynamo win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
33. 75′We said Dynamo at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–66–15
34. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Dynamo · On: Viktor Okishor · Off: Yaroslav Gladyshev
35. 80′We said Dynamo at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–75–11
36. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' CSKA Moscow · On: Imran Firov · Off: Ivan Oleynikov
37. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Dynamo · On: Ivan Sergeev · Off: Konstantin Tyukavin
38. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Dynamo win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
39. 84′We said Dynamo at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
40. 89′Roberto Fernandez scores for Dynamo on 88′. 1–1 · 5–90–4
41. 89′We said Dynamo at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–1 · 96–4–0
42. 89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Dynamo 2–1 CSKA Moscow · Roberto Fernandez
43. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Dynamo win: 42% at kick-off, 96% now
44. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Dynamo win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
45. 90′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 96–4–0
46. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Roberto Fernandez · Dynamo
47. 93′90′: Viktor Okishor on the scoresheet for Dynamo. 2–1 · 98–2–0
48. 93′We said Dynamo at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
49. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Dynamo 3–1 CSKA Moscow · Viktor Okishor
50. 94′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
51. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Danil Glebov · Dynamo
52. FTFULL TIME Dynamo 3–1 CSKA Moscow
53. FTDynamo 3–1 CSKA Moscow · Dynamo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.