Dinamo Makhachkala v Akron prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Dinamo Makhachkala 1–1 Akron DINAMO MAKHACHKALA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Dinamo Makhachkala win~~44%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.786

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.795

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Makhachkala win at 44%.
2′Much as we predicted: Dinamo Makhachkala was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
2′KICK-OFF Dinamo Makhachkala v Akron
25′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Kirill Zinovich · Dinamo Makhachkala
35′Much as we predicted: Dinamo Makhachkala was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–36–26
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dinamo Makhachkala win 35%)
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Rodrigo Escoval · Akron
45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Vyacheslav Bardybakhin · Akron
45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Makhachkala 0–0 Akron
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Dinamo Makhachkala win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
47′SECOND HALF Dinamo Makhachkala 0–0 Akron
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Dinamo Makhachkala · On: Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad · Off: Valdemiro Pinto Domingos
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Dinamo Makhachkala · On: Daniil Lesovoy · Off: Kirill Zinovich
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Akron · On: Maksim Boldyrev · Off: Dudu Rodrigues
52′We said Dinamo Makhachkala at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–45–23
55′We expected about 2.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 31–47–22
59′We said Dinamo Makhachkala at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–21
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Dinamo Makhachkala · On: Marat Apshatsev · Off: Daler Kuzyaev
67′We said Dinamo Makhachkala at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–58–18
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Dinamo Makhachkala win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Akron · On: Milutin Vidosavljević · Off: Karlen Hovhannisyan
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Akron · On: Yomar Rocha · Off: Vyacheslav Bardybakhin
73′72′: Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad on the scoresheet for Dinamo Makhachkala. 0–0 · 20–65–15
74′We said Dinamo Makhachkala at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
74′⚽ GOAL · 72' Dinamo Makhachkala 1–0 Akron · Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Dinamo Makhachkala win: 44% at kick-off, 86% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Dinamo Makhachkala win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 13%)
75′We published Dinamo Makhachkala at 44%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–12–1
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Dinamo Makhachkala win: 44% at kick-off, 87% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Dinamo Makhachkala · On: Ilyas Akhmedov · Off: Gamid Agalarov
80′We published Dinamo Makhachkala at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Akron · On: Dmitriy Pestryakov · Off: Artem Shumanskiy
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Dinamo Makhachkala win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
87′We published Dinamo Makhachkala at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′Roberto Fernández scores for Akron on 87′. 1–0 · 95–4–0
89′We said Dinamo Makhachkala at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 1–1 · 5–91–4
89′⚽ GOAL · 87' Dinamo Makhachkala 1–1 Akron · Roberto Fernández
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Dinamo Makhachkala win: 44% at kick-off, 5% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Dinamo Makhachkala win 5%)
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Akron · On: Denis Popenkov · Off: Roberto Fernández
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Dinamo Makhachkala · On: Soslan Kagermazov · Off: Temirkan Sundukov
91′We said Dinamo Makhachkala at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Dinamo Makhachkala win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Milutin Vidosavljević · Akron
FTFULL TIME Dinamo Makhachkala 1–1 Akron
FTDinamo Makhachkala 1–1 Akron · Dinamo Makhachkala win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dinamo Makhachkala are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Makhachkala 44%, draw 28%, Akron 28%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Makhachkala v AkronBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Makhachkala win44%

Draw28%

Akron win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueAnzhi Arena

Line-ups

Dinamo Makhachkala

4-2-3-1

Akron

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Makhachkala

Akron

3Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · the Russian Cup

Last match: 13 Oct · the Russian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Dinamo Makhachkala	10	−5	12
14	Akron	10	−8	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dinamo Makhachkala

4-2-3-1

33 N. Karabashev

23 M. Makhamadjonov

24 A. Alarcón

99 M. Alibekov

14 D. Kuzyaev

47 N. Glushkov

16 H. Mrezigue

19 K. Zinovich

11 Miro

77 T. Sundukov

25 G. Agalarov

Coach · V. Evseev

Substitutes

30 · D. Aleksandrov

6 · M. Apshatsev

21 · Abdulpasha Dzhabrailov

10 · M. Hosseinnezhad

13 · S. Kagermazov

8 · V. Khubulov

88 · D. Lesovoy

39 · T. Magomedov

9 · R. Magomedov

28 · S. Serderov

1 · D. Volk

43 · I. Akhmedov

Akron

4-3-3

88 V. Gudiev

13 V. Bardybakhin

26 João Escoval

19 M. Bokoev

21 R. Fernández

15 S. Lončar

8 K. Bistrović

6 K. Hovhannisyan

11 Dudu

9 S. Tedić

99 A. Shumanskiy

Coach · S. Blagojević

Substitutes

10 · Kevin Arevalo

81 · N. Bazilevskiy

91 · M. Boldyrev

69 · A. Dmitriev

24 · I. Nedelcearu

71 · D. Pestryakov

89 · D. Popenkov

2 · Y. Rocha

17 · Artem Sidorenko

32 · I. Terekhovskiy

55 · M. Vidosavljević

98 · R. Volochay

Our number · dinamo makhachkala winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market44%

Us44%

~~Market~~44%

We make Dinamo Makhachkala a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dinamo Makhachkala v Akron~~1.46 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 23 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 8~~9 v 14

~~The market · Dinamo Makhachkala win~~44% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dinamo Makhachkala win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo Makhachkala win	44%	44%	0
Draw	28%	28%	0
Akron win	28%	28%	0
Over 2.5 goals	47%	47%	0
Both teams to score	52%	52%	0
Over 1.5 goals	73%	71%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	26%	0
Dinamo Makhachkala or draw	72%	72%	0
Dinamo Makhachkala clean sheet	33%	–	–
Akron clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.0 7.5 4.8 1 10.1 13.3 6.8 2.5 2 8.1 8.9 4.9 3 4.0 4.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Makhachkala down, Akron across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,300 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dinamo Makhachkala at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Akron away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Dinamo Makhachkala, 1.11 for Akron. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~AKR 1–1 DIN · DIN 1–1 AKR · AKR 1–0 DIN · DIN 1–1 AKR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 23 Aug

DINAMO MAKHACHKALA

LLWLLL0–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 0–4

AKRON

LDDDWL0–3 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dynamo	10	+7	22
2	CSKA Moscow	10	+9	22
3	Zenit	10	+11	21
4	FC Krasnodar	10	+6	21
5	Spartak Moscow	10	+9	20
6	Rubin	10	0	12
7	FC Orenburg	10	+1	12
8	Baltika	10	+2	12
9	Dinamo Makhachkala	10	−5	12
10	Krylia Sovetov	10	−1	12
11	Akhmat	10	0	11
12	FC Rostov	10	−6	11
13	Lokomotiv	10	+2	10
14	Akron	10	−8	8
15	Rodina Moskva	10	−15	5
16	Fakel	10	−12	3