CSKA Moscow v Spartak Moscow prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CSKA MoscowDrawSpartak Moscow

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · CSKA Moscow 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CSKA Moscow are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CSKA Moscow 41%, draw 28%, Spartak Moscow 31%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on CSKA Moscow v Spartak MoscowBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

CSKA Moscow win41%

Draw28%

Spartak Moscow win31%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueVEB Arena

RefereeKirill Levnikov

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CSKA Moscow

Spartak Moscow

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Russian Premier League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Spartak Moscow	11	+13	23
5	CSKA Moscow	11	+7	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cska moscow winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market32%

Us41%

~~Market~~32%

We make CSKA Moscow a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CSKA Moscow v Spartak Moscow~~1.41 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 22 v 23~~5 v 4

~~The market · CSKA Moscow win~~32% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CSKA Moscow win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CSKA Moscow win	41%	32%	+9
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Spartak Moscow win	31%	42%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	48%	56%	−8
Both teams to score	53%	59%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	74%	77%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	27%	35%	−8
CSKA Moscow or draw	69%	58%	+11
CSKA Moscow clean sheet	30%	–	–
Spartak Moscow clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 8.6 7.8 5.3 2.1 1 9.3 13.3 7.4 3.0 2 7.3 8.6 5.2 2.1 3 3.5 4.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CSKA Moscow down, Spartak Moscow across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,313 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.9% of games this season, across 93 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CSKA Moscow at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Spartak Moscow away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for CSKA Moscow, 1.20 for Spartak Moscow. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SPA 1–0 CSK · SPA 1–0 CSK · CSK 3–2 SPA · SPA 1–2 CSK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

CSKA MOSCOW

DWDWWL2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 1–3

SPARTAK MOSCOW

DLWWDW1–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dynamo	12	+7	25
2	Zenit	11	+12	24
3	FC Krasnodar	12	+6	23
4	Spartak Moscow	11	+13	23
5	CSKA Moscow	11	+7	22
6	FC Orenburg	12	+2	16
7	Krylia Sovetov	12	0	15
8	Baltika	12	+2	14
9	Dinamo Makhachkala	11	−5	13
10	FC Rostov	11	−6	12
11	Rubin	12	−6	12
12	Akron	12	−6	12
13	Lokomotiv	11	+2	11
14	Akhmat	12	−2	11
15	Rodina Moskva	12	−14	9
16	Fakel	12	−12	6