CSKA Moscow v Rodina Moskva prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

CSKA Moscow 3–0 Rodina Moskva CSKA MOSCOW WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CSKA Moscow win~~70%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.141

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.156

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CSKA Moscow win at 70%.
3′Much as we predicted: CSKA Moscow was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 71% now. 0–0 · 71–18–12
7′Much as we predicted: CSKA Moscow was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–18–12
26′24′ and it is 1–0: Danil Krugovoy on the scoresheet for CSKA Moscow. 1–0 · 87–10–3
34′24′ and it is 1–0: Danil Krugovoy on the scoresheet for CSKA Moscow. 1–0 · 87–10–3
42′CSKA Moscow ahead on 35′ through Ivan Oblyakov. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
45′CSKA Moscow ahead on 35′ through Ivan Oblyakov. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' CSKA Moscow win: 70% at kick-off, 87% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' CSKA Moscow win: 70% at kick-off, 97% now
45′HALF-TIME CSKA Moscow 2–0 Rodina Moskva
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' CSKA Moscow win: 70% at kick-off, 98% now
46′SECOND HALF CSKA Moscow 2–0 Rodina Moskva
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Rodina Moskva · On: Kirill Ushatov · Off: Ruslan Fishchenko
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Rodina Moskva · On: Leon Musaev · Off: Brian Mansilla
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Rodina Moskva · On: German Onugkha · Off: Ivan Timoshenko
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' CSKA Moscow · On: Kirill Glebov · Off: Matheus Alves
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' CSKA Moscow · On: Tamerlan Musaev · Off: Luciano Gondou
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Rodina Moskva · On: Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov · Off: Soltmurad Bakaev
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Igor Silva · Rodina Moskva
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Deiver Machado · Rodina Moskva
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Rodina Moskva · On: Kerfala Cissoko · Off: Artem Maksimenko
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' CSKA Moscow 2–0 Rodina Moskva · Ivan Oblyakov
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' CSKA Moscow 3–0 Rodina Moskva · Ivan Oblyakov
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' CSKA Moscow · On: Danila Kozlov · Off: Ivan Oleynikov
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' CSKA Moscow · On: Danila Kozlov · Off: Ivan Oleynikov
FTFULL TIME CSKA Moscow 3–0 Rodina Moskva
FTCSKA Moscow 3–0 Rodina Moskva · CSKA Moscow win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

CSKA Moscow win70%

Draw19%

Rodina Moskva win12%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:30

VenueVEB Arena

RefereeArtem Chistyakov

Line-ups

CSKA Moscow

5-3-2

Rodina Moskva

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

CSKA Moscow

Rodina Moskva

24Days since last match25

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	CSKA Moscow	9	+6	19
15	Rodina Moskva	9	−12	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

CSKA Moscow

5-3-2

49 Vladislav Torop

21 Mohamed Azzi

4 João Victor

90 Matvey Lukin

23 Dzhamalutdin Abdulkadyrov

3 Danil Krugovoy

31 Matvey Kislyak

10 Ivan Oblyakov

19 Ivan Oleynikov

7 Matheus Alves

32 Luciano Gondou

Coach · Dmitriy Igdisamov

Substitutes

17 · Kirill Glebov

11 · Tamerlan Musaev

18 · Danila Kozlov

99 · Nikolay Barovskiy

39 · Maksim Borisko

79 · Kirill Danilov

61 · Pavel Filyushin

84 · Vakulich Alexander

62 · Imran Firov

37 · Henrique Carmo

20 · Matija Popović

97 · Maksim Voronov

Rodina Moskva

5-4-1

13 Sergey Volkov

2 Igor Silva

26 Artem Meshchaninov

6 Ruslan Fishchenko

75 Mickaël Nadé

20 Deiver Machado

9 Artem Maksimenko

10 Yordy Reyna

11 Brian Mansilla

17 Soltmurad Bakaev

99 Ivan Timoshenko

Coach · Barseg Kirakosyan

Substitutes

23 · Kirill Ushatov

38 · Leon Musaev

7 · German Onugkha

18 · Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov

95 · Kerfala Cissoko

1 · Sergey Aydarov

3 · Leo Goglichidze

88 · Artem Sokol

19 · Dmitriy Tananeev

50 · Rodrigo Becão

80 · Stanislav Bessmertniy

55 · Mitja Križan

Our number · cska moscow winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

70% The market68%

Us70%

~~Market~~68%

We make CSKA Moscow a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.4–0.9.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CSKA Moscow win	70%	68%	+2
Draw	19%	19%	0
Rodina Moskva win	12%	13%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	62%	62%	0
Both teams to score	52%	54%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	84%	82%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	41%	41%	0
CSKA Moscow or draw	88%	87%	+2
CSKA Moscow clean sheet	43%	–	–
Rodina Moskva clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.8%

0123450 4.9 2.8 1 8.7 8.7 3.5 2 10.8 9.1 4.0 3 8.5 7.1 3.1 4 5.2 4.3 5 2.6 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+CSKA Moscow down, Rodina Moskva across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,297 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

CSKA Moscow at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Rodina Moskva away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.39 goals for CSKA Moscow, 0.86 for Rodina Moskva. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 14:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Premier League

CSKA MOSCOW

WWDWDW1–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1

RODINA MOSKVA

DLLLLD3–3 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zenit	10	+11	21
2	FC Krasnodar	10	+6	21
3	Spartak Moscow	10	+9	20
4	CSKA Moscow	9	+6	19
5	Dynamo	9	+6	19
6	Rubin	9	+1	12
7	FC Orenburg	10	+1	12
8	Krylia Sovetov	10	−1	12
9	Dinamo Makhachkala	10	−5	12
10	Baltika	9	+2	11
11	FC Rostov	10	−6	11
12	Lokomotiv	10	+2	10
13	Akhmat	9	0	10
14	Akron	10	−8	8
15	Rodina Moskva	9	−12	5
16	Fakel	10	−12	3