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Baltika v FC Rostov
Baltika
FC RostovPremier League · SUN 18 OCT · Rostec Arena
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Baltika win at 48%.
- 2′Little has changed for our model: Baltika 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–30–22
- 5′KICK-OFF Baltika v FC Rostov
- 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Baltika win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
- 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Baltika win 37%)
- 45′HALF-TIME Baltika 0–0 FC Rostov
- 46′SECOND HALF Baltika 0–0 FC Rostov
- 47′We said Baltika at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–44–19
- 51′We said Baltika at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
- 59′8 shots for FC Rostov, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 30–53–17
- 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Baltika · On: Sergey Varatynov · Off: Eduardo Anderson
- 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Baltika · On: Maksim Petrov · Off: Egor Golenkov
- 61′We said Baltika at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Baltika win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
- 64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Rostov · On: Ronaldo · Off: Ivan Komarov
- 69′We said Baltika at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–63–13
- 74′We said Baltika at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
- 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Baltika win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Baltika · On: Chinonso Offor · Off: Brayan Gil
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Baltika · On: Mikhail Ryadno · Off: Eldar Ćivić
- 78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Danila Prokhin · FC Rostov
- 80′We said Baltika at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–79–8
- 84′We said Baltika at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–86–5
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Baltika win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FC Rostov · On: Imran Aznaurov · Off: Olakunle Olusegun
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FC Rostov · On: Anton Shamonin · Off: Timur Suleymanov
- 90′We said Baltika at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
- 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Baltika · On: Stefan Kovač · Off: Konstantin Shiltsov
- FTFULL TIME Baltika 0–0 FC Rostov
- FTBaltika 0–0 FC Rostov · Baltika win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Baltika are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Baltika 48%, draw 30%, FC Rostov 22%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Baltika win48%
FC Rostov win22%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:00
RoundMatchday 11
VenueRostec Arena
Match timeline
All events
BaltikaMIN
FC RostovEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Baltika
5-3-2
FC Rostov
4-3-3
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Baltika
FC Rostov
Last match: 14 Oct · the Russian Cup
Last match: 14 Oct · the Russian Cup
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Baltika
5-3-2
1 E. Latyshonok
22 M. Beveev
21 E. Anderson
24 L. Mouyokolo
4 N. Gassama
77 E. Ćivić
10 I. Petrov
26 I. Belikov
7 K. Shiltsov
69 E. Golenkov
91 B. Gil
Coach · A. Talalaev
Substitutes
3 · I. Kirsch
42 · V. Pospelov
68 · M. Ryadno
98 · German Iva
14 · S. Kovač
81 · I. Kukushkin
44 · E. Lyubakov
18 · F. Moufi
2 · S. Varatynov
9 · C. Offor
73 · M. Petrov
11 · I. Porokhov
FC Rostov
4-3-3
84 A. Petrov
4 V. Melekhin
3 O. Sako
40 Ygor Nogueira
87 A. Langovich
8 A. Mironov
27 D. Prokhin
18 K. Kuchaev
10 I. Komarov
99 T. Suleymanov
6 O. Olusegun
Coach · D. Kirichenko
Substitutes
78 · D. Chistyakov
34 · D. Golikov
26 · D. Khlusevich
5 · Y. Mikhaylov
16 · M. Mukhin
7 · Ronaldo
22 · D. Semenchuk
91 · Anton Shamonin
21 · D. Shantaliy
1 · R. Yatimov
73 · Imran Aznaurov
59 · N. Babakin
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Baltika
5-3-2
1 E. Latyshonok
22 M. Beveev
21 E. Anderson
24 L. Mouyokolo
4 N. Gassama
77 E. Ćivić
10 I. Petrov
26 I. Belikov
7 K. Shiltsov
69 E. Golenkov
91 B. Gil
Coach · A. Talalaev
Substitutes
3 · I. Kirsch
42 · V. Pospelov
68 · M. Ryadno
98 · German Iva
14 · S. Kovač
81 · I. Kukushkin
44 · E. Lyubakov
18 · F. Moufi
2 · S. Varatynov
9 · C. Offor
73 · M. Petrov
11 · I. Porokhov
FC Rostov
4-3-3
84 A. Petrov
4 V. Melekhin
3 O. Sako
40 Ygor Nogueira
87 A. Langovich
8 A. Mironov
27 D. Prokhin
18 K. Kuchaev
10 I. Komarov
99 T. Suleymanov
6 O. Olusegun
Coach · D. Kirichenko
Substitutes
78 · D. Chistyakov
34 · D. Golikov
26 · D. Khlusevich
5 · Y. Mikhaylov
16 · M. Mukhin
7 · Ronaldo
22 · D. Semenchuk
91 · Anton Shamonin
21 · D. Shantaliy
1 · R. Yatimov
73 · Imran Aznaurov
59 · N. Babakin
We make Baltika a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 49%, 48% now. The market has not moved either.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltika win | 48% | 45% | +3 |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | −1 |
| FC Rostov win | 22% | 24% | −2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 37% | +2 |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 43% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | 62% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 19% | +1 |
| Baltika or draw | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Baltika clean sheet | 43% | – | – |
| FC Rostov clean sheet | 25% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 22 Aug
BALTIKA
FC ROSTOV
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo | 11 | +9 | 25 |
| 2 | Zenit | 11 | +12 | 24 |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 11 | +7 | 22 |
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 11 | +6 | 22 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 6 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 11 | −5 | 13 |
| 7 | Baltika | 10 | +2 | 12 |
| 8 | Rubin | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | FC Orenburg | 10 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 | Krylia Sovetov | 11 | −2 | 12 |
| 11 | Akhmat | 11 | −1 | 11 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv | 11 | +2 | 11 |
| 13 | FC Rostov | 10 | −6 | 11 |
| 14 | Akron | 11 | −8 | 9 |
| 15 | Fakel | 11 | −11 | 6 |
| 16 | Rodina Moskva | 10 | −15 | 5 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Dynamo
Zenit
CSKA Moscow
FC Krasnodar
Spartak Moscow
Dinamo Makhachkala
Rubin
FC Orenburg
Krylia Sovetov
Akhmat
Lokomotiv
Akron
Fakel
Rodina Moskva