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Model 1.2

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Baltika v FC Rostov

Baltika
0–0Full time
FC Rostov

Premier League · SUN 18 OCT · Rostec Arena

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:31
Baltika 0–0 FC Rostov BALTIKA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Baltika win48%
The market said45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.780
The market’s Brier score0.740

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 18 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Baltika win at 48%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Baltika 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–30–22
  3. 5′KICK-OFF Baltika v FC Rostov
  4. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Baltika win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
  5. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Baltika win 37%)
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Baltika 0–0 FC Rostov
  7. 46′SECOND HALF Baltika 0–0 FC Rostov
  8. 47′We said Baltika at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–44–19
  9. 51′We said Baltika at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
  10. 59′8 shots for FC Rostov, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 30–53–17
  11. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Baltika · On: Sergey Varatynov · Off: Eduardo Anderson
  12. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Baltika · On: Maksim Petrov · Off: Egor Golenkov
  13. 61′We said Baltika at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
  14. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Baltika win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
  15. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Rostov · On: Ronaldo · Off: Ivan Komarov
  16. 69′We said Baltika at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–63–13
  17. 74′We said Baltika at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
  18. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Baltika win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
  19. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Baltika · On: Chinonso Offor · Off: Brayan Gil
  20. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Baltika · On: Mikhail Ryadno · Off: Eldar Ćivić
  21. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Danila Prokhin · FC Rostov
  22. 80′We said Baltika at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–79–8
  23. 84′We said Baltika at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–86–5
  24. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Baltika win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
  25. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FC Rostov · On: Imran Aznaurov · Off: Olakunle Olusegun
  26. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FC Rostov · On: Anton Shamonin · Off: Timur Suleymanov
  27. 90′We said Baltika at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
  28. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Baltika · On: Stefan Kovač · Off: Konstantin Shiltsov
  29. FTFULL TIME Baltika 0–0 FC Rostov
  30. FTBaltika 0–0 FC Rostov · Baltika win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Baltika are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Baltika 48%, draw 30%, FC Rostov 22%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Baltika v FC RostovBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Baltika win48%
Draw30%
FC Rostov win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueRostec Arena

Line-ups

Baltika

5-3-2

FC Rostov

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Baltika

FC Rostov

4Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · the Russian Cup

Last match: 14 Oct · the Russian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Baltika10+212
13FC Rostov10−611

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Baltika

5-3-2

1 E. Latyshonok

22 M. Beveev

21 E. Anderson

24 L. Mouyokolo

4 N. Gassama

77 E. Ćivić

10 I. Petrov

26 I. Belikov

7 K. Shiltsov

69 E. Golenkov

91 B. Gil

Coach · A. Talalaev

Substitutes

3 · I. Kirsch

42 · V. Pospelov

68 · M. Ryadno

98 · German Iva

14 · S. Kovač

81 · I. Kukushkin

44 · E. Lyubakov

18 · F. Moufi

2 · S. Varatynov

9 · C. Offor

73 · M. Petrov

11 · I. Porokhov

FC Rostov

4-3-3

84 A. Petrov

4 V. Melekhin

3 O. Sako

40 Ygor Nogueira

87 A. Langovich

8 A. Mironov

27 D. Prokhin

18 K. Kuchaev

10 I. Komarov

99 T. Suleymanov

6 O. Olusegun

Coach · D. Kirichenko

Substitutes

78 · D. Chistyakov

34 · D. Golikov

26 · D. Khlusevich

5 · Y. Mikhaylov

16 · M. Mukhin

7 · Ronaldo

22 · D. Semenchuk

91 · Anton Shamonin

21 · D. Shantaliy

1 · R. Yatimov

73 · Imran Aznaurov

59 · N. Babakin

Our number · baltika winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 17:01 · locked at kick-off
48% The market45%
Us48%
Market45%

We make Baltika a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Baltika v FC Rostov1.40 – 0.86
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 22 AugW1 D3 L2 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 12 v 117 v 13
The market · Baltika win45% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 12 OCT 04:0418 OCT 18:48
Our probability · Baltika win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Baltika win48%45%+3
Draw30%31%−1
FC Rostov win22%24%−2
Over 2.5 goals39%37%+2
Both teams to score44%43%+1
Over 1.5 goals67%62%+5
Over 3.5 goals20%19%+1
Baltika or draw78%76%+2
Baltika clean sheet43%––
FC Rostov clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%
0123450 11.7 7.9 3.9 1 13.4 13.5 5.3 2 10.2 8.6 3.7 3 4.8 4.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Baltika down, FC Rostov across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.52 of 5
Both scored3 of 5
Last meetingsFCR 1–1 BAL · BAL 0–0 FCR · FCR 2–1 BAL · FCR 0–1 BAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 22 Aug

BALTIKA

DWLDLD1–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 0–0

FC ROSTOV

LLWLLW1–4 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Dynamo11+925
2Zenit11+1224
3CSKA Moscow11+722
4FC Krasnodar11+622
5Spartak Moscow10+920
6Dinamo Makhachkala11−513
7Baltika10+212
8Rubin10012
9FC Orenburg10+112
10Krylia Sovetov11−212
11Akhmat11−111
12Lokomotiv11+211
13FC Rostov10−611
14Akron11−89
15Fakel11−116
16Rodina Moskva10−155

The competition's standings before kick-off.