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Akron v Dynamo
Akron
DynamoPremier League · SAT 24 OCT · Solidarnost Samara Arena
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Dynamo win at 53%.
- 2′Much as we predicted: Dynamo was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 24–24–52
- 3′KICK-OFF Akron v Dynamo
- 16′Akron find the net on 17′. 0–0 · 24–26–50
- 17′We said Dynamo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–0 · 50–23–26
- 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Akron 1–0 Dynamo · Artem Shumanskiy (assist Dmitriy Pestryakov)
- 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Dynamo win: 53% at kick-off, 26% now
- 17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Akron win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Dynamo win 50%)
- 23′We said Dynamo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 52–24–24
- 25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Vyacheslav Bardybakhin · Akron
- 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Dynamo win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 53–25–22
- 33′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Dynamo · On: Juan Caceres · Off: Nicolas Marichal
- 37′We said Dynamo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 55–25–19
- 38′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Kristijan Bistrović · Akron
- 45′HALF-TIME Akron 1–0 Dynamo
- 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Dynamo · On: Ivan Sergeev · Off: Daniil Fomin
- 47′SECOND HALF Akron 1–0 Dynamo
- 50′We said Dynamo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–26–14
- 51′11 shots for Dynamo, 6 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 60–26–14
- 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Dynamo win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
- 56′We said Dynamo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 21–42–37
- 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Akron 1–1 Dynamo
- 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Dynamo win: 53% at kick-off, 37% now
- 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Akron win 62%)
- 57′Yaroslav Gladyshev scores for Dynamo on 55′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 21–43–37
- 59′13 shots for Dynamo, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 20–44–36
- 59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Akron · On: Dudu Rodrigues · Off: Dmitriy Pestryakov
- 62′We said Dynamo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 19–47–34
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Dynamo win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
- 70′70′: Kristijan Bistrović on the scoresheet for Akron. 1–1 · 16–56–28
- 70′We said Dynamo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 2–1 · 72–22–6
- 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Akron 2–1 Dynamo · Kristijan Bistrović
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Dynamo win: 53% at kick-off, 6% now
- 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Akron win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 56%)
- 72′Dynamo have had 16 attempts to 7 and it is still 2–1. 2–1 · 74–21–5
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Akron · On: Khetag Khosonov · Off: Karlen Hovhannisyan
- 73′We said Dynamo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 75–21–4
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Akron · On: Maksim Boldyrev · Off: Slobodan Tedić
- 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Stefan Loncar · Akron
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Dynamo · On: Maximiliano Gutierrez · Off: Arthur Gomes
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Dynamo win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Dynamo · On: Viktor Okishor · Off: Yaroslav Gladyshev
- 80′Dynamo have had 20 attempts to 7 and it is still 2–1. 2–1 · 83–15–2
- 85′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Srđan Blagojević · Akron
- 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Akron · On: Denis Popenkov · Off: Roberto Fernández
- 91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Akron · On: Ionuț Nedelcearu · Off: Kristijan Bistrović
- 91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Dynamo · On: Josue Casimir · Off: Rubens
- 95′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+5' Akron
- 96′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Akron 3–1 Dynamo
- FTFULL TIME Akron 3–1 Dynamo
- FTAkron 3–1 Dynamo · Dynamo win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Dynamo are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Akron 24%, draw 24%, Dynamo 53%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Akron win24%
Dynamo win53%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 10:45
RoundMatchday 12
VenueSolidarnost Samara Arena
RefereeIgor Kaplenkov
Match timeline
All events
AkronMIN
DynamoEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Akron
4-3-3
Dynamo
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Akron
Dynamo
Last match: 17 Oct · the Russian Premier League
Last match: 18 Oct · the Russian Premier League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Akron
4-3-3
88 V. Gudiev
13 V. Bardybakhin
26 João Escoval
19 M. Bokoev
21 R. Fernández
6 K. Hovhannisyan
8 K. Bistrović
15 S. Lončar
71 D. Pestryakov
9 S. Tedić
99 A. Shumanskiy
Coach · S. Blagojević
Substitutes
81 · N. Bazilevskiy
55 · M. Vidosavljević
2 · Y. Rocha
89 · D. Popenkov
24 · I. Nedelcearu
10 · Kevin Arevalo
91 · M. Boldyrev
69 · A. Dmitriev
11 · Dudu
80 · K. Khosonov
98 · R. Volochay
17 · Artem Sidorenko
Dynamo
4-2-3-1
99 A. Lunev
2 N. Marichal
55 M. Osipenko
57 David Ricardo
8 Rubens
74 D. Fomin
15 D. Glebov
91 Y. Gladyshev
10 Bitello
11 Arthur Gomes
70 K. Tyukavin
Coach · S. Schwarz
Substitutes
28 · M. Gutiérrez
31 · I. Leshchuk
60 · T. Marinkin
21 · A. Miranchuk
88 · V. Okishor
1 · K. Rasulov
33 · I. Sergeev
7 · D. Skopintsev
6 · R. Fernández
77 · J. Casimir
4 · J. Cáceres
56 · L. Zaydenzal
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Akron
4-3-3
88 V. Gudiev
13 V. Bardybakhin
26 João Escoval
19 M. Bokoev
21 R. Fernández
6 K. Hovhannisyan
8 K. Bistrović
15 S. Lončar
71 D. Pestryakov
9 S. Tedić
99 A. Shumanskiy
Coach · S. Blagojević
Substitutes
81 · N. Bazilevskiy
55 · M. Vidosavljević
2 · Y. Rocha
89 · D. Popenkov
24 · I. Nedelcearu
10 · Kevin Arevalo
91 · M. Boldyrev
69 · A. Dmitriev
11 · Dudu
80 · K. Khosonov
98 · R. Volochay
17 · Artem Sidorenko
Dynamo
4-2-3-1
99 A. Lunev
2 N. Marichal
55 M. Osipenko
57 David Ricardo
8 Rubens
74 D. Fomin
15 D. Glebov
91 Y. Gladyshev
10 Bitello
11 Arthur Gomes
70 K. Tyukavin
Coach · S. Schwarz
Substitutes
28 · M. Gutiérrez
31 · I. Leshchuk
60 · T. Marinkin
21 · A. Miranchuk
88 · V. Okishor
1 · K. Rasulov
33 · I. Sergeev
7 · D. Skopintsev
6 · R. Fernández
77 · J. Casimir
4 · J. Cáceres
56 · L. Zaydenzal
We make Dynamo a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 52%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Akron win | 24% | 18% | +6 |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | +1 |
| Dynamo win | 53% | 58% | −5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 54% | +7 |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 53% | +8 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 76% | +7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 34% | +5 |
| Akron or draw | 47% | 42% | +5 |
| Akron clean sheet | 15% | – | – |
| Dynamo clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug
AKRON
DYNAMO
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo | 11 | +9 | 25 |
| 2 | Zenit | 11 | +12 | 24 |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 11 | +13 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA Moscow | 11 | +7 | 22 |
| 5 | FC Krasnodar | 11 | +6 | 22 |
| 6 | FC Orenburg | 12 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 11 | −5 | 13 |
| 8 | Baltika | 11 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 | FC Rostov | 11 | −6 | 12 |
| 10 | Rubin | 11 | −4 | 12 |
| 11 | Krylia Sovetov | 11 | −2 | 12 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv | 11 | +2 | 11 |
| 13 | Akhmat | 12 | −2 | 11 |
| 14 | Akron | 11 | −8 | 9 |
| 15 | Fakel | 11 | −11 | 6 |
| 16 | Rodina Moskva | 11 | −15 | 6 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Zenit
Spartak Moscow
CSKA Moscow
FC Krasnodar
FC Orenburg
Dinamo Makhachkala
Baltika
FC Rostov
Rubin
Krylia Sovetov
Lokomotiv
Akhmat
Fakel
Rodina Moskva