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Akron v Dynamo

Akron
3–1Full time
Dynamo

Premier League · SAT 24 OCT · Solidarnost Samara Arena

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 13:21
Akron 3–1 Dynamo DYNAMO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Dynamo win53%
The market said58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.917
The market’s Brier score1.062

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 33 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Dynamo win at 53%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Dynamo was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 24–24–52
  3. 3′KICK-OFF Akron v Dynamo
  4. 16′Akron find the net on 17′. 0–0 · 24–26–50
  5. 17′We said Dynamo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–0 · 50–23–26
  6. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Akron 1–0 Dynamo · Artem Shumanskiy (assist Dmitriy Pestryakov)
  7. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Dynamo win: 53% at kick-off, 26% now
  8. 17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Akron win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Dynamo win 50%)
  9. 23′We said Dynamo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 52–24–24
  10. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Vyacheslav Bardybakhin · Akron
  11. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Dynamo win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
  12. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 53–25–22
  13. 33′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Dynamo · On: Juan Caceres · Off: Nicolas Marichal
  14. 37′We said Dynamo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 55–25–19
  15. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Kristijan Bistrović · Akron
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Akron 1–0 Dynamo
  17. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Dynamo · On: Ivan Sergeev · Off: Daniil Fomin
  18. 47′SECOND HALF Akron 1–0 Dynamo
  19. 50′We said Dynamo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–26–14
  20. 51′11 shots for Dynamo, 6 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 60–26–14
  21. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Dynamo win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
  22. 56′We said Dynamo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 21–42–37
  23. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Akron 1–1 Dynamo
  24. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Dynamo win: 53% at kick-off, 37% now
  25. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Akron win 62%)
  26. 57′Yaroslav Gladyshev scores for Dynamo on 55′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 21–43–37
  27. 59′13 shots for Dynamo, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 20–44–36
  28. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Akron · On: Dudu Rodrigues · Off: Dmitriy Pestryakov
  29. 62′We said Dynamo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 19–47–34
  30. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Dynamo win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
  31. 70′70′: Kristijan Bistrović on the scoresheet for Akron. 1–1 · 16–56–28
  32. 70′We said Dynamo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 2–1 · 72–22–6
  33. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Akron 2–1 Dynamo · Kristijan Bistrović
  34. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Dynamo win: 53% at kick-off, 6% now
  35. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Akron win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 56%)
  36. 72′Dynamo have had 16 attempts to 7 and it is still 2–1. 2–1 · 74–21–5
  37. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Akron · On: Khetag Khosonov · Off: Karlen Hovhannisyan
  38. 73′We said Dynamo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 75–21–4
  39. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Akron · On: Maksim Boldyrev · Off: Slobodan Tedić
  40. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Stefan Loncar · Akron
  41. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Dynamo · On: Maximiliano Gutierrez · Off: Arthur Gomes
  42. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Dynamo win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
  43. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Dynamo · On: Viktor Okishor · Off: Yaroslav Gladyshev
  44. 80′Dynamo have had 20 attempts to 7 and it is still 2–1. 2–1 · 83–15–2
  45. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Srđan Blagojević · Akron
  46. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Akron · On: Denis Popenkov · Off: Roberto Fernández
  47. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Akron · On: Ionuț Nedelcearu · Off: Kristijan Bistrović
  48. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Dynamo · On: Josue Casimir · Off: Rubens
  49. 95′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+5' Akron
  50. 96′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  51. 96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Akron 3–1 Dynamo
  52. FTFULL TIME Akron 3–1 Dynamo
  53. FTAkron 3–1 Dynamo · Dynamo win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dynamo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Akron 24%, draw 24%, Dynamo 53%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Akron v DynamoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Akron win24%
Draw24%
Dynamo win53%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 10:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenueSolidarnost Samara Arena

RefereeIgor Kaplenkov

Line-ups

Akron

4-3-3

Dynamo

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Akron

Dynamo

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · the Russian Premier League

Last match: 18 Oct · the Russian Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Dynamo11+925
14Akron11−89

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Akron

4-3-3

88 V. Gudiev

13 V. Bardybakhin

26 João Escoval

19 M. Bokoev

21 R. Fernández

6 K. Hovhannisyan

8 K. Bistrović

15 S. Lončar

71 D. Pestryakov

9 S. Tedić

99 A. Shumanskiy

Coach · S. Blagojević

Substitutes

81 · N. Bazilevskiy

55 · M. Vidosavljević

2 · Y. Rocha

89 · D. Popenkov

24 · I. Nedelcearu

10 · Kevin Arevalo

91 · M. Boldyrev

69 · A. Dmitriev

11 · Dudu

80 · K. Khosonov

98 · R. Volochay

17 · Artem Sidorenko

Dynamo

4-2-3-1

99 A. Lunev

2 N. Marichal

55 M. Osipenko

57 David Ricardo

8 Rubens

74 D. Fomin

15 D. Glebov

91 Y. Gladyshev

10 Bitello

11 Arthur Gomes

70 K. Tyukavin

Coach · S. Schwarz

Substitutes

28 · M. Gutiérrez

31 · I. Leshchuk

60 · T. Marinkin

21 · A. Miranchuk

88 · V. Okishor

1 · K. Rasulov

33 · I. Sergeev

7 · D. Skopintsev

6 · R. Fernández

77 · J. Casimir

4 · J. Cáceres

56 · L. Zaydenzal

Our number · dynamo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 04:06 · locked at kick-off
53% The market58%
Us53%
Market58%

We make Dynamo a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Akron v Dynamo1.23 – 1.93
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 AugW1 D4 L1 · W6 D0 L0
Table places · points 9 v 2514 v 1
The market · Dynamo win58% · ours 53%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 10:16
Our probability · Dynamo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Akron win24%18%+6
Draw24%23%+1
Dynamo win53%58%−5
Over 2.5 goals61%54%+7
Both teams to score61%53%+8
Over 1.5 goals83%76%+7
Over 3.5 goals39%34%+5
Akron or draw47%42%+5
Akron clean sheet15%––
Dynamo clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%
0123450 5.3 7.4 7.8 5.0 2.5 1 4.4 10.9 9.5 6.1 3.0 2 3.3 6.2 5.8 3.7 3 2.6 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Akron down, Dynamo across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.60
Over 2.53 of 5
Both scored3 of 5
Last meetingsAKR 2–3 DYN · DYN 1–2 AKR · DYN 2–1 AKR · AKR 0–2 DYN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

AKRON

DDDWLD2–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

DYNAMO

WWWWWW1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Dynamo11+925
2Zenit11+1224
3Spartak Moscow11+1323
4CSKA Moscow11+722
5FC Krasnodar11+622
6FC Orenburg12+216
7Dinamo Makhachkala11−513
8Baltika11+213
9FC Rostov11−612
10Rubin11−412
11Krylia Sovetov11−212
12Lokomotiv11+211
13Akhmat12−211
14Akron11−89
15Fakel11−116
16Rodina Moskva11−156

The competition's standings before kick-off.