Akhmat v FC Orenburg prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:01

Akhmat 0–1 FC Orenburg AKHMAT WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Akhmat win~~46%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.843

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.861

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Akhmat win at 46%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Akhmat 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–29–26
2′KICK-OFF Akhmat v FC Orenburg
39′38′: Dmitriy Rybchinskiy on the scoresheet for FC Orenburg, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 13–25–62
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Akhmat 0–1 FC Orenburg · Dmitriy Rybchinskiy
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Akhmat win: 46% at kick-off, 13% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' FC Orenburg win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Akhmat win 38%)
40′We said Akhmat at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–25–62
40′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 13–25–62
45′HALF-TIME Akhmat 0–1 FC Orenburg
46′SECOND HALF Akhmat 0–1 FC Orenburg
51′We said Akhmat at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
52′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Akhmat · On: Mohamed Konate · Off: Kirill Shchetinin
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' FC Orenburg · On: Danila Khotulev · Off: Aleksey Tataev
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Akhmat win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Gedeon Guzina · FC Orenburg
67′We said Akhmat at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Mohamed Konate · Akhmat
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Akhmat · On: Erald maksuti · Off: Miroslav Bogosavac
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Akhmat · On: Maksim Sidorov · Off: Georgiy Melkadze
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Orenburg · On: Egor Nazarenko · Off: Damian Puebla
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Orenburg · On: Renat Golybin · Off: Dmitriy Rybchinskiy
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Akhmat · On: Maksim Samorodov · Off: Egas Cacintura
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Orenburg · On: Andrey Kasadzhikov · Off: Jordhy Thompson
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Orenburg · On: Anton Lukashov · Off: Gedeon Guzina
92′Akhmat have had 15 attempts to 10 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 0–3–97
94′Akhmat have had 17 attempts to 10 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 0–2–98
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Anton Lukashov · FC Orenburg
97′20 shots for Akhmat, 10 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 0–2–98
FTFULL TIME Akhmat 0–1 FC Orenburg
FTAkhmat 0–1 FC Orenburg · Akhmat win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Akhmat are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Akhmat 46%, draw 28%, FC Orenburg 26%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Akhmat v FC OrenburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Akhmat win46%

Draw28%

FC Orenburg win26%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueAkhmat-Arena

RefereeSergey Cheban

Line-ups

Akhmat

4-2-3-1

FC Orenburg

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Akhmat

FC Orenburg

5Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · the Russian Premier League

Last match: 19 Oct · the Russian Premier League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	FC Orenburg	11	+1	13
13	Akhmat	11	−1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Akhmat

4-2-3-1

1 V. Ulyanov

95 A. Adamov

6 K. Sidibé

5 K. Cake

8 M. Bogosavac

4 T. Ibishev

11 Ismael Silva Lima

7 L. Sadulaev

17 Egas Cacintura

10 K. Shchetinin

77 G. Melkadze

Coach · S. Cherchesov

Substitutes

70 · A. Gadzhiev

97 · A. Kasadzhikov

42 · Manuel Keliano

13 · M. Konaté

76 · E. Maksuti

71 · R. Mitsaev

20 · M. Samorodov

81 · M. Sidorov

54 · Kirill Kistenev

87 · A. R. Elberdov

FC Orenburg

4-2-3-1

1 B. Ovsyannikov

24 M. Sivis

6 J. Palacios

5 A. Tataev

26 E. Tsenov

78 R. Kul

57 E. Bolotov

10 J. Thompson

8 D. Puebla

20 D. Rybchinskiy

30 G. Guzina

Coach · I. Akhmetzyanov

Substitutes

27 · Renat Golybin

3 · D. Vedernikov

80 · M. Pykhcheev

11 · E. Nazarenko

63 · O. Minatulaev

22 · A. Lukashov

53 · V. Korobov

4 · D. Khotulev

38 · A. Kasimov

77 · A. Kasadzhikov

7 · J. González

35 · A. Degtev

Our number · akhmat winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 21 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

46% The market48%

Us46%

~~Market~~48%

We make Akhmat a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Akhmat v FC Orenburg~~1.47 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 13~~13 v 6

~~The market · Akhmat win~~48% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Akhmat win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Akhmat win	46%	48%	−2
Draw	28%	27%	+1
FC Orenburg win	26%	25%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	46%	50%	−4
Both teams to score	51%	54%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	73%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	30%	−5
Akhmat or draw	74%	75%	−1
Akhmat clean sheet	36%	–	–
FC Orenburg clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.5 7.4 4.4 1 10.8 13.4 6.4 2.2 2 8.7 9.0 4.7 3 4.3 4.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Akhmat down, FC Orenburg across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,308 Premier League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Akhmat at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). FC Orenburg away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Akhmat, 1.04 for FC Orenburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 17:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AKH 1–0 FCO · AKH 0–1 FCO · FCO 2–2 AKH · FCO 2–1 AKH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

AKHMAT

DDWLDL3–3 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–3

FC ORENBURG

DDLDWD1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dynamo	11	+9	25
2	Zenit	11	+12	24
3	Spartak Moscow	11	+13	23
4	CSKA Moscow	11	+7	22
5	FC Krasnodar	11	+6	22
6	FC Orenburg	11	+1	13
7	Baltika	11	+2	13
8	Dinamo Makhachkala	11	−5	13
9	FC Rostov	11	−6	12
10	Rubin	11	−4	12
11	Krylia Sovetov	11	−2	12
12	Lokomotiv	11	+2	11
13	Akhmat	11	−1	11
14	Akron	11	−8	9
15	Fakel	11	−11	6
16	Rodina Moskva	11	−15	6