Akhmat v Baltika prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Akhmat 0–0 Baltika BALTIKA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Baltika win~~36%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.728

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.723

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Baltika win at 36%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Baltika 36% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 35–28–37
2′KICK-OFF Akhmat v Baltika
3′Little has changed for our model: Baltika 36% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 35–29–37
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Chinonso Offor · Baltika
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Baltika win 31%)
45′HALF-TIME Akhmat 0–0 Baltika
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Baltika win 31%)
47′SECOND HALF Akhmat 0–0 Baltika
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Baltika · On: Andrey Mendel · Off: Ilya Petrov
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Baltika · On: Brayan Gil · Off: Chinonso Offor
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Ivan Belikov · Baltika
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Sergey Varatynov · Baltika
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Baltika · On: Eduardo Anderson · Off: Sergey Varatynov
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Akhmat · On: Erald maksuti · Off: Mohamed Konate
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Baltika · On: Vladislav Pospelov · Off: Maksim Petrov
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Akhmat · On: Manuel Keliano · Off: Júlio Romão
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Manuel Keliano · Akhmat
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Baltika · On: Mikhail Ryadno · Off: Konstantin Shiltsov
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Andrey Mendel · Baltika
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Ismael Silva · Akhmat
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Klisman Cake · Akhmat
FTFULL TIME Akhmat 0–0 Baltika
FTAkhmat 0–0 Baltika · Baltika win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Akhmat win34%

Draw30%

Baltika win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenueAkhmat-Arena

RefereeAleksei Suchkov

Line-ups

Akhmat

5-4-1

Baltika

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Akhmat

Baltika

24Days since last match25

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Baltika	9	+2	11
13	Akhmat	9	0	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Akhmat

5-4-1

1 Vadim Ulyanov

95 Arsen Adamov

4 Turpal-Ali Ibishev

6 Kalidou Sidibé

5 Klisman Cake

8 Miroslav Bogosavac

17 Egas Cacintura

11 Ismael Silva

18 Júlio Romão

7 Lechi Sadulaev

13 Mohamed Konaté

Coach · Stanislav Cherchesov

Substitutes

76 · Erald Maksuti

42 · Manuel Keliano

71 · Rasul Mitsaev

90 · Ousmane N’Dong

81 · Maksim Sidorov

87 · Akhmed Elberdov

10 · Kirill Shchetinin

19 · Sergey Pryakhin

54 · Kirill Kistenev

70 · Abakar Gadzhiev

97 · Aleksey Kasadzhikov

Baltika

5-4-1

1 Evgeniy Latyshonok

22 Mingiyan Beveev

2 Sergey Varatynov

24 Loris Mouyokolo

4 Nathan Gassama

77 Eldar Ćivić

73 Maksim Petrov

26 Ivan Belikov

10 Ilya Petrov

7 Konstantin Shiltsov

9 Nnamdi Chinonso Offor

Coach · Andrey Talalaev

Substitutes

8 · Andrey Mendel

91 · Brayan Gil

21 · Eduardo Anderson

42 · Vladislav Pospelov

68 · Mikhail Ryadno

44 · Egor Lyubakov

81 · Ivan Kukushkin

98 · German Iva

3 · Ilya Kirsch

11 · Ilya Porokhov

14 · Stefan Kovač

69 · Egor Golenkov

Our number · baltika winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

36% The market32%

Us36%

~~Market~~32%

We make Baltika a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · baltika win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 33% to 32% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Akhmat win	34%	37%	−3
Draw	30%	31%	0
Baltika win	36%	32%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	41%	41%	0
Both teams to score	48%	48%	0
Over 1.5 goals	69%	66%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	21%	23%	−2
Akhmat or draw	64%	68%	−3
Akhmat clean sheet	31%	–	–
Baltika clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 11.0 10.4 6.8 2.7 1 10.0 14.1 7.7 3.1 2 6.4 7.4 4.4 3 2.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Akhmat down, Baltika across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,297 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Akhmat at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Baltika away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Akhmat, 1.19 for Baltika. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 11:38. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~AKH 1–1 BAL · BAL 2–0 AKH · AKH 1–7 BAL · BAL 1–0 AKH

Form · last six in Premier League

AKHMAT

LWDDWL0–1 · 4–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–2

BALTIKA

LDWLDL1–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zenit	10	+11	21
2	FC Krasnodar	10	+6	21
3	Spartak Moscow	10	+9	20
4	CSKA Moscow	9	+6	19
5	Dynamo	9	+6	19
6	Rubin	9	+1	12
7	FC Orenburg	10	+1	12
8	Krylia Sovetov	10	−1	12
9	Dinamo Makhachkala	10	−5	12
10	Baltika	9	+2	11
11	FC Rostov	10	−6	11
12	Lokomotiv	10	+2	10
13	Akhmat	9	0	10
14	Akron	10	−8	8
15	Rodina Moskva	9	−12	5
16	Fakel	10	−12	3