Volga Ulyanovsk v Veles prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Volga UlyanovskDrawVeles

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Volga Ulyanovsk 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Volga Ulyanovsk are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Volga Ulyanovsk 39%, draw 27%, Veles 34%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Volga Ulyanovsk v VelesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Volga Ulyanovsk win39%

Draw27%

Veles win34%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:30

RoundMatchday 15

VenueTrud Stadium (Ulyanovsk)

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Volga Ulyanovsk

Veles

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Russian First League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Veles	15	+2	27
11	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	−2	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · volga ulyanovsk winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

39% The market43%

Us39%

~~Market~~43%

We make Volga Ulyanovsk a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Volga Ulyanovsk v Veles~~1.35 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 27~~11 v 5

~~The market · Volga Ulyanovsk win~~43% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Volga Ulyanovsk win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Volga Ulyanovsk win	39%	43%	−4
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Veles win	34%	28%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	47%	45%	+2
Both teams to score	52%	50%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	73%	68%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	26%	25%	+1
Volga Ulyanovsk or draw	66%	72%	−6
Volga Ulyanovsk clean sheet	30%	–	–
Veles clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.5 8.9 5.8 2.4 1 9.8 12.9 7.5 3.1 2 6.9 8.2 5.0 2.1 3 3.1 3.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Volga Ulyanovsk down, Veles across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,735 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 132 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Volga Ulyanovsk at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Veles away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Volga Ulyanovsk, 1.23 for Veles. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~VEL 1–2 VOL · VEL 1–2 VOL · VOL 3–2 VEL · VEL 0–0 VOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 5 Sept

VOLGA ULYANOVSK

DLLWDW2–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

VELES

DLDLWD1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	15	+29	40
2	FC Sochi	15	+11	32
3	Torpedo Moskva	15	+15	28
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	+7	27
5	Veles	15	+2	27
6	Ural	14	+12	25
7	FC UFA	15	+3	21
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	+4	20
9	Rotor Volgograd	15	+5	19
10	Arsenal Tula	15	−10	19
11	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	−2	18
12	Chelyabinsk	14	−5	15
13	Enisey	15	−14	14
14	KAMAZ	15	−8	13
15	Leningradets	14	−14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	−11	12
17	Ska-khabarovsk	15	−10	10
18	Tekstilshchik	15	−14	10