Volga Ulyanovsk v Tekstilshchik prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Volga UlyanovskDrawTekstilshchik

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Volga Ulyanovsk 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Volga Ulyanovsk are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Volga Ulyanovsk 54%, draw 25%, Tekstilshchik 21%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Volga Ulyanovsk v TekstilshchikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Volga Ulyanovsk win54%

Draw25%

Tekstilshchik win21%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 16

VenueTrud Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Volga Ulyanovsk

Tekstilshchik

13Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Russian First League

Last match: 24 Oct · the Russian First League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	−2	18
18	Tekstilshchik	15	−14	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · volga ulyanovsk winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Volga Ulyanovsk a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Volga Ulyanovsk v Tekstilshchik~~1.67 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 18 v 10~~11 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Volga Ulyanovsk win	54%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Tekstilshchik win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Volga Ulyanovsk or draw	79%	–	–
Volga Ulyanovsk clean sheet	41%	–	–
Tekstilshchik clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.1%

0123450 8.5 6.6 3.3 1 12.1 11.8 5.2 2 10.3 9.2 4.2 3 5.8 5.1 2.3 4 2.5 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Volga Ulyanovsk down, Tekstilshchik across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,735 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 132 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Volga Ulyanovsk at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tekstilshchik away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Volga Ulyanovsk, 0.91 for Tekstilshchik. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TEK 1–0 VOL · VOL 0–0 TEK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 4 Sept

VOLGA ULYANOVSK

DLLWDW2–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

TEKSTILSHCHIK

LDLLWL1–4 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	15	+29	40
2	FC Sochi	15	+11	32
3	Torpedo Moskva	15	+15	28
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	+7	27
5	Veles	15	+2	27
6	Ural	14	+12	25
7	FC UFA	15	+3	21
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	+4	20
9	Rotor Volgograd	15	+5	19
10	Arsenal Tula	15	−10	19
11	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	−2	18
12	Chelyabinsk	14	−5	15
13	Enisey	15	−14	14
14	KAMAZ	15	−8	13
15	Leningradets	14	−14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	−11	12
17	Ska-khabarovsk	15	−10	10
18	Tekstilshchik	15	−14	10