Veles v Shinnik Yaroslavl prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Veles 1–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl VELES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Veles win~~40%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.750

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.730

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Veles win at 40%.
3′Much as we predicted: Veles was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–30
3′KICK-OFF Veles v Shinnik Yaroslavl
28′Shinnik Yaroslavl find the net on 27′. 0–0 · 36–36–28
29′We said Veles at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–23–65
29′⚽ GOAL · 27' Veles 0–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Veles win: 40% at kick-off, 12% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Shinnik Yaroslavl win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Veles win 12%)
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 12–23–65
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Veles win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
41′We said Veles at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Shinnik Yaroslavl
45′HALF-TIME Veles 0–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Muslim Bammatgereev · Veles
47′SECOND HALF Veles 0–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Veles · On: Ivan Nikin · Off: Muslim Bammatgereev
62′We said Veles at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Shinnik Yaroslavl · On: Artem Lavrenkov · Off: Denis Mironov
69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Shinnik Yaroslavl · On: Daniil Martovoy · Off: Dmitri Samoilov
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Veles 1–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Shinnik Yaroslavl win 10%)
80′Veles find the net on 77′. 1–1. 1–1 · 11–79–10
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Veles · On: Nuri Abdokov · Off: Kirill Skvortsov
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Veles · On: Artur Murza · Off: Kirill Korolkov
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Veles · On: Dmitriy Kuchugura · Off: Aleksandr Shubin
82′Veles have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 9–83–8
88′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Shinnik Yaroslavl · On: Danila Yanov · Off: Ivan Shmakov
88′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Shinnik Yaroslavl · On: Anton Antonov · Off: Albek Gongapshev
88′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Veles · On: Dmitriy Sergeev · Off: Yuriy Zavezen
92′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Shinnik Yaroslavl · On: Maksim Karaev · Off: Ilya Azyavin
FTFULL TIME Veles 1–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl
FTVeles 1–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl · Veles win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Veles are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Veles 40%, draw 30%, Shinnik Yaroslavl 31%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Veles v Shinnik YaroslavlBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Veles win40%

Draw30%

Shinnik Yaroslavl win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueAvangard Stadium (Domodedovo)

Line-ups

Veles

Shinnik Yaroslavl

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Veles

Shinnik Yaroslavl

8Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · the Russian First League

Last match: 14 Oct · the Russian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Veles	14	+2	26
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	13	+4	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Veles

Formation not confirmed

41 S. Samok

23 K. Skvortsov

15 K. Pliev

5 A. Koloskov

22 Y. Zavezen

97 A. Shubin

10 M. Bammatgereev

90 V. Galkin

11 K. Korolkov

77 O. Smirnov

9 K. Giraev

Coach · Aleksey Stukalov

Substitutes

6 · I. Melikov

7 · A. Murza

17 · P. Kotov

18 · D. Sergeev

40 · A. Bezchasnyuk

70 · M. Zakharzhevskiy

76 · I. Kuptsov

87 · I. Nikin

88 · D. Sadov

94 · D. Kuchugura

99 · N. Abdokov

Shinnik Yaroslavl

Formation not confirmed

66 N. Yanovich

62 V. Karpov

27 A. Chernyi

23 N. Chistyakov

17 E. Valiakhmetov

50 A. Golubev

54 I. Shmakov

15 D. Samoylov

10 A. Gongapshev

24 I. Azyavin

88 D. Mironov

Coach · Denis Boyarintsev

Substitutes

7 · D. Martovoy

13 · D. Yanov

14 · G. Kalinin

19 · Y. Arbuzov

21 · D. Pushkarev

33 · A. Lavrenkov

49 · M. Karaev

77 · A. Antonov

95 · D. Vambolt

Our number · veles winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market40%

Us40%

~~Market~~40%

We make Veles a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Veles v Shinnik Yaroslavl~~1.23 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 26 v 19~~5 v 8

~~The market · Veles win~~40% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Veles win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Veles win	40%	40%	0
Draw	30%	30%	0
Shinnik Yaroslavl win	31%	30%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	39%	37%	+2
Both teams to score	45%	44%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	66%	62%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	19%	19%	0
Veles or draw	69%	70%	−1
Veles clean sheet	36%	–	–
Shinnik Yaroslavl clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 11.3 10.3 5.6 1 12.3 13.5 6.7 2.3 2 7.8 7.9 4.1 3 3.3 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Veles down, Shinnik Yaroslavl across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,726 First League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.8% of games this season, across 123 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Veles at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Shinnik Yaroslavl away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Veles, 1.03 for Shinnik Yaroslavl. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VEL 1–1 SHI · SHI 2–0 VEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 29 Aug

VELES

WDLDLW1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

SHINNIK YAROSLAVL

DDDLDW0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	14	+28	37
2	FC Sochi	14	+9	29
3	Torpedo Moskva	14	+15	27
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	+7	27
5	Veles	14	+2	26
6	Ural	14	+12	25
7	FC UFA	14	+4	21
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	13	+4	19
9	Rotor Volgograd	14	+5	18
10	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	−2	18
11	Arsenal Tula	14	−11	16
12	Chelyabinsk	13	−4	15
13	Enisey	14	−11	14
14	KAMAZ	14	−7	13
15	Leningradets	14	−14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	−11	12
17	Ska-khabarovsk	14	−13	7
18	Tekstilshchik	13	−13	7