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Ural v Veles

Ural

1–2Full time

Veles

First League · SAT 10 OCT · Central Stadium(Yekaterinburg)

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:08

Ural 1–2 Veles URAL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ural win~~59%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.087

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.221

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ural win at 59%.
2′Much as we predicted: Ural was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–23–17
2′KICK-OFF Ural v Veles
6′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Veles
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Ural 0–1 Veles
21′⚽ GOAL · 16' Ural 0–1 Veles · Vladislav Galkin
22′Veles ahead on 16′ through Vladislav Galkin. 0–1. 0–1 · 27–27–45
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Ural win: 59% at kick-off, 27% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Veles win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Ural win 27%)
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Ural 0–2 Veles · Vladislav Galkin
25′⚽ GOAL · 23' Ural 0–2 Veles
33′Artur Koloskov scores for Veles on 23′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 8–15–77
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Ural win: 59% at kick-off, 8% now
43′We said Ural at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–13–82
45′HALF-TIME Ural 0–2 Veles
46′SECOND HALF Ural 0–2 Veles
49′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Veles
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ural · On: Evgeniy Kharin · Off: Vladislav Karapuzov
52′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Veles
56′We said Ural at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–88
57′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Ural
60′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Veles
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Ural
65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Ural · On: Denis Bokov · Off: Bertrand Fourrier
65′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Ural
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Ural 1–2 Veles · Artur Koloskov
69′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Veles · On: Karim Giraev · Off: Zakhar Tarasenko
69′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Silvije Begić · Ural
69′⚽ GOAL · 66' Ural 1–2 Veles · Silvije Begić
72′⚽ GOAL · 66' Ural 1–2 Veles · Silvije Begić
76′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Veles · On: Dmitriy Kuchugura · Off: Aleksandr Shubin
83′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Veles · On: Nuri Abdokov · Off: Vladislav Galkin
83′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Veles
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Ural
FTFULL TIME Ural 1–2 Veles
FTUral 1–2 Veles · Ural win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ural win59%

Draw23%

Veles win17%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 10:00

Venue · Central Stadium(Yekaterinburg)

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Ural

3-4-2-1

57 A. Selikhov

15 D. Tikhiy

24 A. Korotkov

16 Italo

17 V. Karapuzov

13 M. Kaynov

6 F. Sungatulin

2 S. Begic

10 M. Sekulic

97 I. Ishkov

99 B. Fourrier

Coach · Sergey Yuran

Substitutes

86 · I. Kuznetsov

43 · R. Shoronov

5 · V. Stezhko

35 · D. Prishchepa

59 · E. Kharin

37 · V. Bondarev

18 · N. Morozov

11 · D. Bokov

Veles

4-3-2-1

41 S. Samok

22 Y. Zavezen

15 K. Pliev

5 A. Koloskov

23 K. Skvortsov

8 Z. Tarasenko

87 I. Nikin

97 A. Shubin

77 O. Smirnov

11 K. Korolkov

90 V. Galkin

Coach · Aleksey Stukalov

Substitutes

6 · I. Melikov

7 · A. Murza

9 · K. Giraev

10 · M. Bammatgereev

17 · P. Kotov

18 · D. Sergeev

40 · A. Bezchasnyuk

70 · M. Zakharzhevskiy

76 · I. Kuptsov

88 · D. Sadov

94 · D. Kuchugura

99 · N. Abdokov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ural

3-4-2-1

57 A. Selikhov

15 D. Tikhiy

24 A. Korotkov

16 Italo

17 V. Karapuzov

13 M. Kaynov

6 F. Sungatulin

2 S. Begic

10 M. Sekulic

97 I. Ishkov

99 B. Fourrier

Coach · Sergey Yuran

Substitutes

86 · I. Kuznetsov

43 · R. Shoronov

5 · V. Stezhko

35 · D. Prishchepa

59 · E. Kharin

37 · V. Bondarev

18 · N. Morozov

11 · D. Bokov

Veles

4-3-2-1

41 S. Samok

22 Y. Zavezen

15 K. Pliev

5 A. Koloskov

23 K. Skvortsov

8 Z. Tarasenko

87 I. Nikin

97 A. Shubin

77 O. Smirnov

11 K. Korolkov

90 V. Galkin

Coach · Aleksey Stukalov

Substitutes

6 · I. Melikov

7 · A. Murza

9 · K. Giraev

10 · M. Bammatgereev

17 · P. Kotov

18 · D. Sergeev

40 · A. Bezchasnyuk

70 · M. Zakharzhevskiy

76 · I. Kuptsov

88 · D. Sadov

94 · D. Kuchugura

99 · N. Abdokov

Our number · ural winPublished 10 Oct 10:08

59% The market65%

Us59%

~~Market~~65%

We make Ural a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ural win	59%	65%	−6
Draw	23%	22%	+2
Veles win	17%	13%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	51%	50%	+1
Both teams to score	49%	45%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	72%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	30%	0
Ural or draw	83%	87%	−4
Ural clean sheet	42%	–	–
Veles clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.6%

0123450 7.5 5.5 2.6 1 11.6 11.0 4.6 2 10.9 9.4 4.2 3 6.7 5.8 2.5 4 3.2 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ural down, Veles across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,714 First League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Ural at home: 2.00 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Veles away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Ural, 0.88 for Veles. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 09:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in First League

URAL

WDWDWW2–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

VELES

WWDLDL2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	12	+22	31
2	Ural	12	+14	25
3	Spartak Kostroma	13	+5	24
4	FC Sochi	12	+7	23
5	Veles	13	+1	23
6	Torpedo Moskva	12	+12	21
7	FC UFA	12	+3	18
8	Rotor Volgograd	12	+6	17
9	Shinnik Yaroslavl	12	+2	16
10	Arsenal Tula	13	−9	16
11	Chelyabinsk	13	−4	15
12	Volga Ulyanovsk	13	−3	14
13	Enisey	12	−5	14
14	Leningradets	12	−10	13
15	FK Neftekhimik	13	−10	12
16	KAMAZ	12	−8	9
17	Tekstilshchik	12	−11	7
18	Ska-khabarovsk	12	−12	6