Ural v Nizhny Novgorod

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ural win at 39%.
2. 3′Little has changed for our model: Ural 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–25–36
3. 3′KICK-OFF Ural v Nizhny Novgorod
4. 6′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Nizhny Novgorod
5. 10′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Nikita Kakkoev · Nizhny Novgorod
6. 18′We said Ural at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–20–15
7. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Ural 1–0 Nizhny Novgorod
8. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Ural win: 39% at kick-off, 65% now
9. 19′Martin Sekulic scores for Ural on 17′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–20–15
10. 25′Nizhny Novgorod score on 24′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 37–29–34
11. 25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Ural 1–1 Nizhny Novgorod
12. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Ural win: 39% at kick-off, 37% now
13. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Nizhny Novgorod
14. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Ural
15. 45′HALF-TIME Ural 1–1 Nizhny Novgorod
16. 46′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–1 · 33–36–31
17. 46′SECOND HALF Ural 1–1 Nizhny Novgorod
18. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Ural win 32%)
19. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Artem Sokolov · Nizhny Novgorod
20. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Ural win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
21. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Yuriy Koledin · Nizhny Novgorod
22. 62′We said Ural at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–47–26
23. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Nizhny Novgorod · On: Vladislav Sarveli · Off: Ivan Bober
24. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Ural
25. 67′We said Ural at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–23
26. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Nizhny Novgorod · On: Timofey Komissarov · Off: Gleb Popolitov
27. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Nizhny Novgorod · On: Gleb Shilnikov · Off: Yuriy Koledin
28. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Ural · On: Nikita morozov · Off: Vladislav Karapuzov
29. 75′We said Ural at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–63–18
30. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Ural win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
31. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Ural · On: Dmitriy Prishchepa · Off: Evgeniy Kharin
32. 80′We said Ural at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–73–13
33. 82′Ural are down to ten from 80′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 12–77–11
34. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Ural
35. 82′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Ural
36. 83′We said Ural at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
37. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Ural 1–2 Nizhny Novgorod
38. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Ural win: 39% at kick-off, 1% now
39. 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Nizhny Novgorod win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 10%)
40. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Ural · On: Vitaliy Stezhko · Off: Léo Cordeiro
41. 86′Nizhny Novgorod find the net on 82′. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–8–92
42. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Ural · On: Maksim Kaynov · Off: Vitaliy Bondarev
43. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Ural · On: Bertrand Fourrier · Off: Dmitriy Tikhiy
44. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Ural
45. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Vitaliy Stezhko · Ural
46. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Nizhny Novgorod · On: Mamadou Maiga · Off: Artem Sokolov
47. FTFULL TIME Ural 1–2 Nizhny Novgorod
48. FTUral 1–2 Nizhny Novgorod · Ural win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.