Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › First League › Torpedo Moskva v Rotor Volgograd

Back
Russia flag

Torpedo Moskva v Rotor Volgograd

Torpedo Moskva
1–1Full time
Rotor Volgograd

First League · FRI 23 OCT · Arena Khimki

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:31
Torpedo Moskva 1–1 Rotor Volgograd TORPEDO MOSKVA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Torpedo Moskva win43%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.755
The market’s Brier score0.777

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Torpedo Moskva win at 43%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Torpedo Moskva was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–30–27
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Torpedo Moskva v Rotor Volgograd
  4. 3′A goal for Torpedo Moskva on 1′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–10
  5. 3′⚽ GOAL · 1' Torpedo Moskva 1–0 Rotor Volgograd
  6. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Torpedo Moskva win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
  7. 4′A goal for Torpedo Moskva on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–10
  8. 4′We published Torpedo Moskva at 43%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–18–10
  9. 28′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Rotor Volgograd
  10. 29′We published Torpedo Moskva at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
  11. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–7
  12. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Rotor Volgograd
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Torpedo Moskva 1–0 Rotor Volgograd
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Torpedo Moskva 1–0 Rotor Volgograd
  15. 56′We published Torpedo Moskva at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  16. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Torpedo Moskva win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
  17. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Rotor Volgograd · On: Said Aliev · Off: Aleksandr Khubulov
  18. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Rotor Volgograd · On: Aleksandr Khokhlachev · Off: Abu-Said Eldarushev
  19. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Torpedo Moskva · On: Bojan Roganovic · Off: Ruslan Apekov
  20. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Torpedo Moskva · On: Vladimir Moskvichev · Off: Artem Pogosov
  21. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Torpedo Moskva · On: Aleksey Kashtanov · Off: Jonathan Okoronkwo
  22. 69′We published Torpedo Moskva at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  23. 70′We said Torpedo Moskva at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 1–1 · 20–65–15
  24. 70′Rotor Volgograd score on 70′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 20–65–15
  25. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Torpedo Moskva 1–1 Rotor Volgograd
  26. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Torpedo Moskva win: 43% at kick-off, 20% now
  27. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Torpedo Moskva win 85%)
  28. 72′We said Torpedo Moskva at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–14
  29. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Rotor Volgograd · On: Georgiy Yudintsev · Off: Irakliy Manelov
  30. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Rotor Volgograd · On: Nikolay Poyarkov · Off: Ilya Rodionov
  31. 78′We said Torpedo Moskva at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–10
  32. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Torpedo Moskva win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
  33. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Torpedo Moskva · On: Aleksandr Yushin · Off: Ilya Berkovskiy
  34. 83′We said Torpedo Moskva at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–7
  35. 90′We said Torpedo Moskva at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
  36. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Torpedo Moskva win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
  37. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Torpedo Moskva · On: Usman ajibona · Off: Stepan Oganesyan
  38. FTFULL TIME Torpedo Moskva 1–1 Rotor Volgograd
  39. FTTorpedo Moskva 1–1 Rotor Volgograd · Torpedo Moskva win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Torpedo Moskva are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Torpedo Moskva 43%, draw 30%, Rotor Volgograd 28%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Torpedo Moskva v Rotor VolgogradBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Torpedo Moskva win43%
Draw30%
Rotor Volgograd win28%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 15

VenueArena Khimki

Line-ups

Torpedo Moskva

4-4-2

Rotor Volgograd

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Torpedo Moskva

Rotor Volgograd

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Russian First League

Last match: 16 Oct · the Russian First League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Torpedo Moskva14+1527
9Rotor Volgograd14+518

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Torpedo Moskva

4-4-2

25 R. Soldatenko

99 G. Shevchenko

2 N. Bozov

4 S. Borodin

17 I. Berkovskiy

11 R. Apekov

97 M. Ćurić

24 A. Pogosov

9 S. Oganesyan

20 J. Okoronkwo

10 D. Tsypchenko

Coach · A. Storozhuk

Substitutes

8 · U. Ajibona

7 · A. Yushin

90 · B. Roganović

84 · V. Churilov

21 · A. Galoyan

3 · A. Ivankov

79 · A. Kashtanov

58 · D. Ladokha

48 · S. Mokrousov

5 · V. Moskvichev

27 · A. Orekhov

22 · Konstantin Parkhomenko

Rotor Volgograd

5-3-2

13 N. Chagrov

2 I. Manelov

15 E. Danilkin

25 Emmersón

24 A. Kleshchenko

29 A. Khityaev

10 A. Simonyan

5 A. Troshechkin

18 I. Rodionov

28 A. Khubulov

11 A. Eldarushev

Coach · Dmitriy Parfenov

Substitutes

1 · V. Sugrobov

12 · A. Revazov

16 · N. Poyarkov

20 · I. Litvenok

7 · A. Khokhlachev

8 · T. Ayupov

9 · S. Aliev

4 · G. Yudintsev

Our number · torpedo moskva winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
43% The market44%
Us43%
Market44%

We make Torpedo Moskva a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Torpedo Moskva v Rotor Volgograd1.27 – 0.96
Form · last six in First League this season · since 31 AugW3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 27 v 183 v 9
The market · Torpedo Moskva win44% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2323 OCT 15:44
Our probability · Torpedo Moskva win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Torpedo Moskva win43%44%−1
Draw30%29%+1
Rotor Volgograd win28%27%+1
Over 2.5 goals38%43%−5
Both teams to score44%49%−5
Over 1.5 goals65%68%−3
Over 3.5 goals19%23%−4
Torpedo Moskva or draw72%73%−1
Torpedo Moskva clean sheet39%––
Rotor Volgograd clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%
0123450 11.7 9.8 5.0 1 13.1 13.5 6.2 2.0 2 8.6 8.1 3.9 3 3.7 3.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Torpedo Moskva down, Rotor Volgograd across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.83
Over 2.51 of 6
Both scored2 of 6
Last meetingsTOR 2–0 ROT · ROT 3–0 TOR · TOR 0–1 ROT · ROT 1–1 TOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 31 Aug

TORPEDO MOSKVA

WLDDWW4–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 2–1

ROTOR VOLGOGRAD

LDWWDL0–1 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Nizhny Novgorod14+2837
2FC Sochi14+929
3Torpedo Moskva14+1527
4Spartak Kostroma14+727
5Veles15+227
6Ural14+1225
7FC UFA14+421
8Shinnik Yaroslavl14+420
9Rotor Volgograd14+518
10Volga Ulyanovsk15−218
11Arsenal Tula14−1116
12Chelyabinsk14−515
13Enisey14−1114
14KAMAZ14−713
15Leningradets14−1413
16FK Neftekhimik14−1112
17Tekstilshchik14−1210
18Ska-khabarovsk14−137

The competition's standings before kick-off.