Tekstilshchik v Chelyabinsk prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Tekstilshchik 2–1 Chelyabinsk CHELYABINSK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chelyabinsk win~~44%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.778

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.725

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chelyabinsk win at 44%.
4′Little has changed for our model: Chelyabinsk 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 29–28–44
4′KICK-OFF Tekstilshchik v Chelyabinsk
7′A goal for Tekstilshchik on 8′. 0–0 · 28–28–43
9′We said Chelyabinsk at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 1–0 · 57–23–20
9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Tekstilshchik 1–0 Chelyabinsk
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Chelyabinsk win: 44% at kick-off, 20% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Tekstilshchik win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Chelyabinsk win 20%)
14′We said Chelyabinsk at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 58–23–19
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 61–24–15
30′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Artem Krutovskikh · Tekstilshchik
33′We said Chelyabinsk at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–24–14
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Chelyabinsk win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
37′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Chelyabinsk
45′HALF-TIME Tekstilshchik 1–0 Chelyabinsk
47′SUBSTITUTION · 41' Chelyabinsk · On: Dmitriy Kamenshchikov · Off: Nikolay Pridava Corrected
47′SECOND HALF Tekstilshchik 1–0 Chelyabinsk
51′We said Chelyabinsk at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–24–9
53′We said Chelyabinsk at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Tekstilshchik 2–0 Chelyabinsk
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Chelyabinsk win: 44% at kick-off, 2% now
57′Tekstilshchik ahead on 50′ through Aleksandr Pomalyuk. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
57′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Chelyabinsk · On: Aleksandr Bem · Off: Aleksey Berdnikov Corrected
57′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Khetag Kochiev · Chelyabinsk
74′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Chelyabinsk · On: Konstantin Kertanov · Off: Sergey Makarov Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Chelyabinsk · On: Baba N'Diaye · Off: Denis Pokotylo Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Tekstilshchik · On: Aleksandr Gapechkin · Off: Yuriy Petin Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Tekstilshchik · On: Stanislav Biblik · Off: Aleksandr Pomalyuk Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Tekstilshchik · On: Ivan Ivanov · Off: Dmytro Ivanisenya Corrected
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Tekstilshchik
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Tekstilshchik · On: Daniil Marugin · Off: Nikolay Ishchenko Corrected
83′A goal for Chelyabinsk on 81′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 90–9–1
83′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 90–9–1
83′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Tekstilshchik · On: Maksim Kriushichev · Off: artem mikhailusov Corrected
83′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Tekstilshchik
83′⚽ GOAL · 81' Tekstilshchik 2–1 Chelyabinsk
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Tekstilshchik
FTFULL TIME Tekstilshchik 2–1 Chelyabinsk
FTTekstilshchik 2–1 Chelyabinsk · Chelyabinsk win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chelyabinsk are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tekstilshchik 29%, draw 27%, Chelyabinsk 44%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Tekstilshchik v ChelyabinskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tekstilshchik win29%

Draw27%

Chelyabinsk win44%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueTekstilshchik Stadium

Line-ups

Tekstilshchik

4-2-3-1

Chelyabinsk

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tekstilshchik

Chelyabinsk

4Days since last match5

Last match: 14 Oct · the Russian Cup

Last match: 13 Oct · the Russian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Chelyabinsk	13	−4	15
18	Tekstilshchik	13	−13	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tekstilshchik

4-2-3-1

58 S. Fadeev

27 A. Krutovskikh

74 E. Guziev

66 Y. Petin

23 D. Ivannikov

21 D. Ivanisenia

30 D. Simonov

7 A. Dzhebov

91 A. Pomalyuk

83 N. Ishchenko

17 A. Mikhailusov

Coach · Dmitriy Pyatibratov

Substitutes

2 · A. Gapechkin

3 · D. Marugin

11 · M. Kriushichev

18 · I. Ivanov

19 · M. Noskov

29 · K. Nikitin

55 · V. Gapeev

77 · S. Biblik

87 · A. Filev

95 · M. Volkov

Chelyabinsk

4-2-3-1

1 I. Lomaev

24 N. Pridava

50 V. Lystsov

15 K. Kochiev

21 A. Berdnikov

70 G. Levin

6 S. Makarov

10 R. Gadzhimuradov

33 D. Pokotylo

55 G. Borisov

29 M. Urvantsev

Coach · Roman Pilipchuk

Substitutes

5 · B. Gatin

11 · G. Miroshnichenko

17 · B. N'Diaye

18 · K. Kertanov

27 · I. Gribakin

72 · A. Bem

74 · L. Kacorri

77 · D. Samoilov

93 · I. Tuseev

99 · D. Kamenshchikov

Our number · chelyabinsk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market41%

Us44%

~~Market~~41%

We make Chelyabinsk a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tekstilshchik v Chelyabinsk~~1.10 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 15~~18 v 12

~~The market · Chelyabinsk win~~41% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chelyabinsk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tekstilshchik win	29%	31%	−2
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Chelyabinsk win	44%	41%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	47%	44%	+3
Both teams to score	50%	50%	0
Over 1.5 goals	72%	69%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	26%	23%	+3
Tekstilshchik or draw	56%	59%	−3
Tekstilshchik clean sheet	24%	–	–
Chelyabinsk clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.7 10.8 8.1 4.0 1 8.2 12.6 8.6 4.2 2 4.9 6.7 4.7 2.3 3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tekstilshchik down, Chelyabinsk across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,726 First League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.8% of games this season, across 123 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tekstilshchik at home: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Chelyabinsk away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Tekstilshchik, 1.45 for Chelyabinsk. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 12:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TEK 1–2 CHE · CHE 3–3 TEK · TEK 0–0 CHE · CHE 1–1 TEK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 22 Aug

TEKSTILSHCHIK

LLLDLL0–2 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–2

CHELYABINSK

LLDWDW1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	13	+27	34
2	FC Sochi	14	+9	29
3	Torpedo Moskva	14	+15	27
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	+7	27
5	Veles	14	+2	26
6	Ural	13	+13	25
7	FC UFA	14	+4	21
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	13	+4	19
9	Rotor Volgograd	14	+5	18
10	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	−2	18
11	Arsenal Tula	14	−11	16
12	Chelyabinsk	13	−4	15
13	Enisey	14	−11	14
14	KAMAZ	14	−7	13
15	Leningradets	14	−14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	−11	12
17	Ska-khabarovsk	14	−13	7
18	Tekstilshchik	13	−13	7