Spartak Kostroma v Leningradets prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Spartak Kostroma 2–0 Leningradets SPARTAK KOSTROMA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spartak Kostroma win~~59%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.253

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.159

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spartak Kostroma win at 59%.
4′Much as we predicted: Spartak Kostroma was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–24–17
4′KICK-OFF Spartak Kostroma v Leningradets
15′Spartak Kostroma find the net on 17′. 0–0 · 56–27–17
19′We published Spartak Kostroma at 59%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–5
19′⚽ GOAL · 17' Spartak Kostroma 1–0 Leningradets
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Spartak Kostroma win: 59% at kick-off, 83% now
20′GOAL DISALLOWED · 20' Spartak Kostroma
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Spartak Kostroma win: 59% at kick-off, 54% now
28′Spartak Kostroma find the net on 28′. 0–0 · 52–31–17
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 83–13–4
31′⚽ GOAL · 28' Spartak Kostroma 1–0 Leningradets
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Spartak Kostroma win: 59% at kick-off, 83% now
38′A goal for Spartak Kostroma on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–4
39′We published Spartak Kostroma at 59%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–4
39′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 83–13–4
45′HALF-TIME Spartak Kostroma 1–0 Leningradets
46′SECOND HALF Spartak Kostroma 1–0 Leningradets
55′We published Spartak Kostroma at 59%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
70′We published Spartak Kostroma at 59%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Spartak Kostroma 2–0 Leningradets
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Spartak Kostroma win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
75′69′: Denis Zhilmostnykh on the scoresheet for Spartak Kostroma, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
75′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Spartak Kostroma · On: Ruslan Chervyakov · Off: David Kirakosyan
75′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Spartak Kostroma · On: Nikita Demchenko · Off: D. Gurtskaia
75′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Leningradets · On: Maksim bachinski · Off: Alexandrovich dmitry yakovlev
78′We published Spartak Kostroma at 59%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Spartak Kostroma · On: David Karaev · Off: armin spahic
88′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Leningradets · On: Olivier Kenfack · Off: Artem Kulishev
90′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Leningradets · On: Sergei Nikolaev · Off: Gennadiy Kiselev
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Spartak Kostroma · On: Amir Mokhammad · Off: Amur Kalmykov
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Spartak Kostroma · On: ilia rubtsov · Off: Marko Bugarin
FTFULL TIME Spartak Kostroma 2–0 Leningradets
FTSpartak Kostroma 2–0 Leningradets · Spartak Kostroma win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spartak Kostroma are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Spartak Kostroma 59%, draw 24%, Leningradets 17%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Spartak Kostroma v LeningradetsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Spartak Kostroma win59%

Draw24%

Leningradets win17%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 14

VenueStadion Urozhay

Line-ups

Spartak Kostroma

4-2-3-1

Leningradets

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spartak Kostroma

Leningradets

4Days since last match3

Last match: 13 Oct · the Russian Cup

Last match: 14 Oct · the Russian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Spartak Kostroma	13	+5	24
14	Leningradets	13	−12	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Spartak Kostroma

4-2-3-1

50 E. Shamov

5 D. Zhilmostnykh

2 N. Tarasov

21 M. Bugarin

7 K. Malyarov

6 N. Mohammadi

73 D. Kirakosyan

17 D. Kaptilovich

87 A. Spahic

11 D. Gurtskaia

90 A. Kalmykov

Coach · Andrey Ashikhmin

Substitutes

68 · M. Gaydash

3 · S. Bugriev

96 · A. Mokhammad

8 · N. Demchenko

22 · A. Nemchenko

66 · M. Nikiforov

69 · K. Chursin

70 · R. Chervyakov

82 · O. Nikiforenko

10 · D. Karaev

Leningradets

3-4-3

96 A. Kuznetsov

78 G. Kiselev

4 R. Kudryavtsev

44 N. Kalugin

10 E. Zarypbekov

21 A. Makarov

5 K. Morozov

6 D. Rodin

11 D. Yakovlev

32 A. Kulishev

7 D. Nikitin

Coach · Sergey Podpaliy

Substitutes

1 · E. Smirnov

37 · K. Isaev

19 · A. Maksetsov

2 · S. Nikolaev

52 · I. Petukhov

14 · O. Kenfak

77 · M. Bachinskiy

Our number · spartak kostroma winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

59% The market68%

Us59%

~~Market~~68%

We make Spartak Kostroma a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Spartak Kostroma v Leningradets~~1.80 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 24 v 13~~6 v 14

~~The market · Spartak Kostroma win~~68% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Spartak Kostroma win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 68% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spartak Kostroma win	59%	68%	−9
Draw	24%	20%	+4
Leningradets win	17%	12%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	49%	55%	−6
Both teams to score	47%	47%	0
Over 1.5 goals	74%	76%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	34%	−6
Spartak Kostroma or draw	83%	88%	−5
Spartak Kostroma clean sheet	43%	–	–
Leningradets clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.3%

0123450 7.9 5.7 2.6 1 12.3 11.1 4.5 2 11.3 9.4 4.0 3 6.8 5.6 2.4 4 3.2 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spartak Kostroma down, Leningradets across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,722 First League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 119 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spartak Kostroma at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Leningradets away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Spartak Kostroma, 0.85 for Leningradets. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SPA 0–1 LEN · LEN 2–1 SPA · LEN 2–0 SPA · SPA 2–1 LEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 29 Aug

SPARTAK KOSTROMA

WWWWLL1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–3

LENINGRADETS

LWDLWL0–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 0–6 · 1–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	13	+27	34
2	FC Sochi	14	+9	29
3	Torpedo Moskva	14	+15	27
4	Veles	14	+2	26
5	Ural	13	+13	25
6	Spartak Kostroma	13	+5	24
7	Shinnik Yaroslavl	13	+4	19
8	Rotor Volgograd	14	+5	18
9	FC UFA	13	+2	18
10	Arsenal Tula	13	−9	16
11	Volga Ulyanovsk	14	−3	15
12	Chelyabinsk	13	−4	15
13	Enisey	14	−11	14
14	Leningradets	13	−12	13
15	FK Neftekhimik	13	−10	12
16	KAMAZ	13	−8	10
17	Ska-khabarovsk	13	−12	7
18	Tekstilshchik	13	−13	7