Ska-khabarovsk v Volga Ulyanovsk prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 08:31

Ska-khabarovsk 1–2 Volga Ulyanovsk SKA-KHABAROVSK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ska-khabarovsk win~~44%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.757

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.705

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ska-khabarovsk win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ska-khabarovsk 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–30
1′KICK-OFF Ska-khabarovsk v Volga Ulyanovsk
18′A goal for Volga Ulyanovsk on 17′. 0–0 · 41–30–29
18′We said Ska-khabarovsk at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–23–59
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Ska-khabarovsk 0–1 Volga Ulyanovsk
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Ska-khabarovsk win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Volga Ulyanovsk win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Ska-khabarovsk win 18%)
24′Ska-khabarovsk find the net on 24′. 0–1 · 16–24–60
25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Ska-khabarovsk 1–1 Volga Ulyanovsk
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Ska-khabarovsk win: 44% at kick-off, 40% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Ska-khabarovsk win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Volga Ulyanovsk win 28%)
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Volga Ulyanovsk
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Ska-khabarovsk win 35%)
45′HALF-TIME Ska-khabarovsk 1–1 Volga Ulyanovsk
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Ska-khabarovsk win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
46′SECOND HALF Ska-khabarovsk 1–1 Volga Ulyanovsk
52′We said Ska-khabarovsk at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–44–24
55′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–1 · 31–46–23
59′We said Ska-khabarovsk at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–49–22
67′We said Ska-khabarovsk at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–57–19
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Volga Ulyanovsk
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Ska-khabarovsk win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Ska-khabarovsk · On: Egor Mosin · Off: Arshak Koryan
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Ska-khabarovsk · On: Mikheil Gorelishvili · Off: Maxim Maksimov
71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Volga Ulyanovsk · On: Dmitriy Rakhmanov · Off: Ignat Kasyanov
71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Volga Ulyanovsk · On: Igor Gershun · Off: Andrey Nikitin
76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Volga Ulyanovsk · On: Aydar Khabibullin · Off: Artem Bykov
76′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Volga Ulyanovsk · On: Ruslan Shagiakhmetov · Off: Kirill Folmer
79′We said Ska-khabarovsk at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–11
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Ska-khabarovsk win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
83′We said Ska-khabarovsk at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
83′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–9–90
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Ska-khabarovsk 1–2 Volga Ulyanovsk
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Ska-khabarovsk win: 44% at kick-off, 1% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Volga Ulyanovsk win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 9%)
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ska-khabarovsk · On: Jacobo Alcalde · Off: Stepan Glotov
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ska-khabarovsk · On: Igor Shkolik · Off: Nikita Motpan
84′Volga Ulyanovsk score on 82′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–8–91
84′PENALTY MISSED · 82' Volga Ulyanovsk
87′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Volga Ulyanovsk
87′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Ska-khabarovsk
88′81′: Aleksandr Saplinov on the scoresheet for Volga Ulyanovsk, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–6–94
88′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Volga Ulyanovsk · On: Oleg Krasilnichenko · Off: Danil Stepanov
FTFULL TIME Ska-khabarovsk 1–2 Volga Ulyanovsk
FTSka-khabarovsk 1–2 Volga Ulyanovsk · Ska-khabarovsk win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ska-khabarovsk are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ska-khabarovsk 44%, draw 27%, Volga Ulyanovsk 30%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Ska-khabarovsk v Volga UlyanovskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ska-khabarovsk win44%

Draw27%

Volga Ulyanovsk win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueLenin Stadium

Line-ups

Ska-khabarovsk

3-5-2

Volga Ulyanovsk

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ska-khabarovsk

Volga Ulyanovsk

4Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · the Russian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Volga Ulyanovsk	14	−3	15
17	Ska-khabarovsk	13	−12	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ska-khabarovsk

3-5-2

1 M. Shtepa

4 K. Savichev

63 D. Borisov

84 Y. Grebenkin

7 N. Motpan

2 A. Zhirov

6 S. Bagiev

21 M. Maksimov

8 D. Markitesov

77 A. Koryan

50 S. Glotov

Coach · Sergey Zhukov

Substitutes

16 · V. Botnar

31 · D. Nagaev

91 · E. Noskov

17 · D. Fomin

37 · M. Chirkov

14 · E. Mosin

61 · M. Uzhgin

20 · I. Shkolik

5 · E. Bliev

24 · M. Gorelishvili

10 · K. Aliev

9 · J. Alcalde

Volga Ulyanovsk

4-2-3-1

1 R. Shakerov

5 D. Stepanov

4 K. Ibragimov

50 A. Bykov

88 M. Dziov

60 I. Kasyanov

9 K. Folmer

7 A. Nikitin

99 A. Kostin

55 A. Saplinov

11 A. Khashkulov

Coach · Aleksandr Grishchenko

Substitutes

95 · A. Khodanovich

3 · O. Krasilnichenko

20 · K. Kovalev

30 · A. Khabibullin

10 · R. Shagiakhmetov

17 · I. Gershun

22 · D. Rakhmanov

77 · L. Bagatelia

Our number · ska-khabarovsk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market40%

Us44%

~~Market~~40%

We make Ska-khabarovsk a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ska-khabarovsk v Volga Ulyanovsk~~1.47 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 30 Aug~~W0 D4 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 15~~17 v 11

~~The market · Ska-khabarovsk win~~40% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ska-khabarovsk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ska-khabarovsk win	44%	40%	+4
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Volga Ulyanovsk win	30%	32%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	49%	47%	+2
Both teams to score	53%	52%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	71%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	27%	26%	+1
Ska-khabarovsk or draw	70%	68%	+2
Ska-khabarovsk clean sheet	32%	–	–
Volga Ulyanovsk clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.9 7.9 4.9 1 10.1 12.6 7.0 2.8 2 7.7 8.8 5.1 2.0 3 3.8 4.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ska-khabarovsk down, Volga Ulyanovsk across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,726 First League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.8% of games this season, across 123 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ska-khabarovsk at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Volga Ulyanovsk away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Ska-khabarovsk, 1.17 for Volga Ulyanovsk. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 05:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SKA 1–1 VOL · VOL 1–0 SKA · SKA 1–1 VOL · VOL 0–0 SKA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 30 Aug

SKA-KHABAROVSK

LLDDDD0–2 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–3

VOLGA ULYANOVSK

WDLLWD3–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	13	+27	34
2	FC Sochi	14	+9	29
3	Torpedo Moskva	14	+15	27
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	+7	27
5	Veles	14	+2	26
6	Ural	13	+13	25
7	FC UFA	14	+4	21
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	13	+4	19
9	Rotor Volgograd	14	+5	18
10	Arsenal Tula	14	−11	16
11	Volga Ulyanovsk	14	−3	15
12	Chelyabinsk	13	−4	15
13	Enisey	14	−11	14
14	KAMAZ	14	−7	13
15	Leningradets	14	−14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	−11	12
17	Ska-khabarovsk	13	−12	7
18	Tekstilshchik	13	−13	7