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Ska-khabarovsk v KAMAZ

Ska-khabarovsk

3–3Full time

KAMAZ

First League · SAT 10 OCT · Lenin Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 10:38

Ska-khabarovsk 3–3 KAMAZ SKA-KHABAROVSK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ska-khabarovsk win~~39%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.756

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.765

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ska-khabarovsk win at 39%.
2′Much as we predicted: Ska-khabarovsk was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–33
2′KICK-OFF Ska-khabarovsk v KAMAZ
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Ska-khabarovsk 1–0 KAMAZ
25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Ska-khabarovsk 1–0 KAMAZ
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Ska-khabarovsk 2–0 KAMAZ · Arshak Koryan
38′⚽ GOAL · 35' Ska-khabarovsk 2–0 KAMAZ · Maxim Maksimov
41′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Ska-khabarovsk
43′35′ and it is 2–0: Maxim Maksimov on the scoresheet for Ska-khabarovsk. 2–0 · 93–6–1
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Ska-khabarovsk win: 39% at kick-off, 93% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Ska-khabarovsk 2–1 KAMAZ · Maxim Maksimov
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Ska-khabarovsk 2–1 KAMAZ
45′HALF-TIME Ska-khabarovsk 2–1 KAMAZ
45′⚽ GOAL · 24' Ska-khabarovsk 2–1 KAMAZ · Arshak Koryan
45′⚽ GOAL · 35' Ska-khabarovsk 2–1 KAMAZ · Maxim Maksimov
45′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Sadyg Bagiev · Ska-khabarovsk
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Ska-khabarovsk 2–1 KAMAZ · Vitaliy Semenov
46′SECOND HALF Ska-khabarovsk 2–1 KAMAZ
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' KAMAZ · On: Artem Sukhanov · Off: Roman Manuylov
59′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Ska-khabarovsk
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Ska-khabarovsk 2–2 KAMAZ · Vitaliy Semenov
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' KAMAZ · On: David Khubaev · Off: Roman Zashchepkin
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Ska-khabarovsk 2–2 KAMAZ
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ska-khabarovsk · On: Eldar Bliev · Off: Sadyg Bagiev
66′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Maksim Laykin · KAMAZ
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Ska-khabarovsk 2–3 KAMAZ · Roman Akbashev
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Ska-khabarovsk 2–3 KAMAZ
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ska-khabarovsk · On: Stepan Glotov · Off: Maxim Maksimov
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ska-khabarovsk · On: Nikita Motpan · Off: Arshak Koryan
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Ska-khabarovsk 3–3 KAMAZ · Maksim Laykin
90′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ska-khabarovsk · On: Stepan Glotov · Off: Maxim Maksimov
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Ska-khabarovsk · On: Egor Noskov · Off: Kamran Aliev
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Ska-khabarovsk · On: Jacobo Alcalde · Off: Igor Shkolik
90′SUBSTITUTION · 85' KAMAZ · On: Evgeniy Voronin · Off: Merabi Uridia
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Ska-khabarovsk 3–3 KAMAZ
FTFULL TIME Ska-khabarovsk 3–3 KAMAZ
FTSka-khabarovsk 3–3 KAMAZ · Ska-khabarovsk win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ska-khabarovsk win39%

Draw29%

KAMAZ win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 08:00

Venue · Lenin Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Ska-khabarovsk

3-4-2-1

1 M. Shtepa

2 A. Zhirov

17 D. Fomin

63 D. Borisov

4 K. Savichev

6 S. Bagiev

8 D. Markitesov

20 I. Shkolik

77 A. Koryan

10 K. Aliev

21 M. Maksimov

Coach · Sergey Zhukov

Substitutes

5 · E. Bliev

7 · N. Motpan

9 · J. Alcalde

14 · E. Mosin

24 · M. Gorelishvili

29 · A. Mukhin

31 · D. Nagaev

37 · M. Chirkov

50 · S. Glotov

61 · M. Uzhgin

84 · Y. Grebenkin

91 · E. Noskov

KAMAZ

4-2-3-1

31 A. Anisimov

27 R. Manuylov

15 M. Burko

67 R. Tkachuk

7 R. Ayukin

83 M. Laykin

10 R. Zashchepkin

18 A. Popov

99 R. Akbashev

79 V. Semenov

25 M. Uridia

Coach · Anton Khazov

Substitutes

2 · D. Khubaev

6 · T. Kalistratov

8 · E. Dolgopolov

9 · I. Moseychuk

13 · N. Rybalchenko

19 · M. Bogdanets

28 · M. Sultonov

37 · E. Voronin

76 · A. Sukhanov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ska-khabarovsk

3-4-2-1

1 M. Shtepa

2 A. Zhirov

17 D. Fomin

63 D. Borisov

4 K. Savichev

6 S. Bagiev

8 D. Markitesov

20 I. Shkolik

77 A. Koryan

10 K. Aliev

21 M. Maksimov

Coach · Sergey Zhukov

Substitutes

5 · E. Bliev

7 · N. Motpan

9 · J. Alcalde

14 · E. Mosin

24 · M. Gorelishvili

29 · A. Mukhin

31 · D. Nagaev

37 · M. Chirkov

50 · S. Glotov

61 · M. Uzhgin

84 · Y. Grebenkin

91 · E. Noskov

KAMAZ

4-2-3-1

31 A. Anisimov

27 R. Manuylov

15 M. Burko

67 R. Tkachuk

7 R. Ayukin

83 M. Laykin

10 R. Zashchepkin

18 A. Popov

99 R. Akbashev

79 V. Semenov

25 M. Uridia

Coach · Anton Khazov

Substitutes

2 · D. Khubaev

6 · T. Kalistratov

8 · E. Dolgopolov

9 · I. Moseychuk

13 · N. Rybalchenko

19 · M. Bogdanets

28 · M. Sultonov

37 · E. Voronin

76 · A. Sukhanov

Our number · ska-khabarovsk winPublished 10 Oct 08:02

39% The market42%

Us39%

~~Market~~42%

We make Ska-khabarovsk a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ska-khabarovsk win	39%	42%	−3
Draw	29%	29%	0
KAMAZ win	32%	29%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	42%	44%	−2
Both teams to score	48%	50%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	68%	68%	0
Over 3.5 goals	21%	25%	−3
Ska-khabarovsk or draw	68%	71%	−3
Ska-khabarovsk clean sheet	33%	–	–
KAMAZ clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.4 10.0 5.9 2.2 1 11.2 13.5 7.1 2.7 2 7.3 8.0 4.4 3 3.1 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ska-khabarovsk down, KAMAZ across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,714 First League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ska-khabarovsk at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). KAMAZ away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Ska-khabarovsk, 1.11 for KAMAZ. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 07:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KAM 1–1 SKA · SKA 1–1 KAM · SKA 2–1 KAM · KAM 3–0 SKA

Form · last six in First League

SKA-KHABAROVSK

LLLDDD2–4 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0

KAMAZ

LLWLDW0–1 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	12	+22	31
2	Ural	12	+14	25
3	Spartak Kostroma	13	+5	24
4	FC Sochi	12	+7	23
5	Veles	13	+1	23
6	Torpedo Moskva	12	+12	21
7	FC UFA	12	+3	18
8	Rotor Volgograd	12	+6	17
9	Shinnik Yaroslavl	12	+2	16
10	Arsenal Tula	13	−9	16
11	Chelyabinsk	13	−4	15
12	Volga Ulyanovsk	13	−3	14
13	Enisey	12	−5	14
14	Leningradets	12	−10	13
15	FK Neftekhimik	13	−10	12
16	KAMAZ	12	−8	9
17	Tekstilshchik	12	−11	7
18	Ska-khabarovsk	12	−12	6