Ska-khabarovsk v Enisey prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 08:31

Ska-khabarovsk 3–0 Enisey SKA-KHABAROVSK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ska-khabarovsk win~~39%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.561

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.524

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ska-khabarovsk win at 39%.
2′Much as we predicted: Ska-khabarovsk was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–34
2′KICK-OFF Ska-khabarovsk v Enisey
12′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Enisey
16′We published Ska-khabarovsk at 39%. Our model now makes it 67%. 1–0 · 67–20–13
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Ska-khabarovsk 1–0 Enisey
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Ska-khabarovsk win: 39% at kick-off, 67% now
17′14′: Arshak Koryan on the scoresheet for Ska-khabarovsk, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–20–13
22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Enisey
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–11
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Ska-khabarovsk win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
37′We published Ska-khabarovsk at 39%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–10
41′7 shots for Enisey, 2 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 70–21–9
44′Enisey have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 71–21–8
45′HALF-TIME Ska-khabarovsk 1–0 Enisey
46′SECOND HALF Ska-khabarovsk 1–0 Enisey
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Ska-khabarovsk
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Enisey · On: Maksim Balakhonov · Off: Nikita Shershov
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Enisey · On: Yan Tses · Off: Aleksandr Lomakin
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Ska-khabarovsk
57′We published Ska-khabarovsk at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Ska-khabarovsk win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Enisey · On: Luka Ratković · Off: Rodion Pechura
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Ska-khabarovsk · On: Egor Mosin · Off: Arshak Koryan
68′We published Ska-khabarovsk at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
68′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Ska-khabarovsk · On: Egor Noskov · Off: Daniil Borisov
76′We published Ska-khabarovsk at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–1
79′We published Ska-khabarovsk at 39%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
79′Ska-khabarovsk find the net on 78′. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Ska-khabarovsk 2–0 Enisey
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Ska-khabarovsk win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
83′We published Ska-khabarovsk at 39%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′Ska-khabarovsk find the net on 84′. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Ska-khabarovsk · On: Eldar Bliev · Off: Sadyg Bagiev
84′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Ska-khabarovsk · On: Stepan Glotov · Off: Mikheil Gorelishvili
84′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Enisey · On: David Kokoev · Off: Aleksandr Kanaplin
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Enisey
85′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Ska-khabarovsk 3–0 Enisey
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Ska-khabarovsk · On: Denis Fomin · Off: Yaroslav Grebenkin
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Enisey · On: Rostislav Ogienko · Off: Andrey Okladnikov
FTFULL TIME Ska-khabarovsk 3–0 Enisey
FTSka-khabarovsk 3–0 Enisey · Ska-khabarovsk win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ska-khabarovsk are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ska-khabarovsk 39%, draw 27%, Enisey 34%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Ska-khabarovsk v EniseyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ska-khabarovsk win39%

Draw27%

Enisey win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 15

VenueLenin Stadium

Line-ups

Ska-khabarovsk

Enisey

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ska-khabarovsk

Enisey

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Russian First League

Last match: 17 Oct · the Russian First League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Enisey	14	−11	14
18	Ska-khabarovsk	14	−13	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ska-khabarovsk

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Shtepa

4 K. Savichev

7 N. Moțpan

8 D. Markitesov

21 M. Maksimov

77 A. Koryan

84 Y. Grebenkin

24 M. Gorelishvili

63 D. Borisov

6 S. Bagiev

2 A. Zhirov

Coach · Sergey Zhukov

Substitutes

20 · I. Shkolik

61 · M. Uzhgin

91 · E. Noskov

9 · Jacobo Alcalde

10 · K. Aliev

5 · E. Bliev

16 · V. Botnar

37 · Makar Chirkov

17 · D. Fomin

50 · S. Glotov

14 · E. Mosin

31 · D. Nagaev

Enisey

Formation not confirmed

23 S. Antipin

7 A. Chukanov

22 A. Gyurdzhan

21 E. Ivanov

8 A. Kanaplin

90 A. Lomakin

33 A. Maslovskiy

87 A. Mazurin

75 A. Okladnikov

81 R. Pechura

25 N. Shershov

Coach · A. Tarkhanov

Substitutes

27 · L. Ratković

1 · M. Oparin

77 · R. Ogienko

36 · V. Lutashev

17 · D. Kokoev

15 · A. Balakhonov

3 · Y. Tses

Our number · ska-khabarovsk winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

39% The market41%

Us39%

~~Market~~41%

We make Ska-khabarovsk a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ska-khabarovsk v Enisey~~1.41 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 7 v 14~~18 v 13

~~The market · Ska-khabarovsk win~~41% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ska-khabarovsk win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ska-khabarovsk win	39%	41%	−2
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Enisey win	34%	31%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	51%	48%	+3
Both teams to score	55%	53%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	71%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	29%	28%	+1
Ska-khabarovsk or draw	66%	69%	−3
Ska-khabarovsk clean sheet	28%	–	–
Enisey clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.5 8.2 5.7 2.5 1 8.9 12.6 7.8 3.4 2 6.6 8.4 5.4 2.4 3 3.1 4.0 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ska-khabarovsk down, Enisey across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,731 First League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 128 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ska-khabarovsk at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Enisey away: 0.67 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Ska-khabarovsk, 1.30 for Enisey. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SKA 1–1 ENI · ENI 1–2 SKA · SKA 1–2 ENI · ENI 2–2 SKA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 5 Sept

SKA-KHABAROVSK

LDDDDL2–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 1–2

ENISEY

LLWDLL0–2 · 0–4 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	14	+28	37
2	FC Sochi	14	+9	29
3	Torpedo Moskva	15	+15	28
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	+7	27
5	Veles	15	+2	27
6	Ural	14	+12	25
7	FC UFA	14	+4	21
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	+4	20
9	Rotor Volgograd	15	+5	19
10	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	−2	18
11	Arsenal Tula	14	−11	16
12	Chelyabinsk	14	−5	15
13	Enisey	14	−11	14
14	KAMAZ	14	−7	13
15	Leningradets	14	−14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	−11	12
17	Tekstilshchik	14	−12	10
18	Ska-khabarovsk	14	−13	7