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Shinnik Yaroslavl v Tekstilshchik

Shinnik Yaroslavl

2–0Full time

Tekstilshchik

First League · SAT 10 OCT · Shinnik

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2–0 Tekstilshchik SHINNIK YAROSLAVL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shinnik Yaroslavl win~~56%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.297

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.309

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shinnik Yaroslavl win at 56%.
10′Shinnik Yaroslavl find the net on 3′. 0–0. 0–0 · 55–28–18
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–0 Tekstilshchik
19′⚽ GOAL · 16' Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–0 Tekstilshchik
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Shinnik Yaroslavl 2–0 Tekstilshchik · Nikita Chistyakov
30′Nikita Chistyakov scores for Shinnik Yaroslavl on 15′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Shinnik Yaroslavl win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
38′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Eduard Valiakhmetov · Shinnik Yaroslavl
40′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Aleksandr Gapechkin · Tekstilshchik
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Tekstilshchik
45′HALF-TIME Shinnik Yaroslavl 2–0 Tekstilshchik
48′SECOND HALF Shinnik Yaroslavl 2–0 Tekstilshchik
56′⚽ GOAL · 4' Shinnik Yaroslavl 2–0 Tekstilshchik · Nikita Kotin
56′⚽ GOAL · 15' Shinnik Yaroslavl 2–0 Tekstilshchik · Nikita Chistyakov
56′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Eduard Valiakhmetov · Shinnik Yaroslavl
56′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Aleksandr Gapechkin · Tekstilshchik
56′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Dmitriy Ivannikov · Tekstilshchik
71′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Tekstilshchik · On: Artem Krutovskikh · Off: Daniil Marugin
71′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Tekstilshchik · On: artem mikhailusov · Off: Kirill Nikitin
71′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Tekstilshchik · On: Arseniy Filev · Off: Stanislav Biblik
71′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Shinnik Yaroslavl · On: Denis Mironov · Off: Daniil Martovoy
71′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Shinnik Yaroslavl · On: Artur Chernyi · Off: Nikita Kotin
74′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Shinnik Yaroslavl · On: Yaroslav Arbuzov · Off: Dmitri Samoilov
74′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Shinnik Yaroslavl · On: Danila Yanov · Off: Ilya Azyavin
79′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Tekstilshchik · On: Aleksandr Pomalyuk · Off: Abdullo Dzhebov
82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Tekstilshchik · On: Maksim Kriushichev · Off: Dmytro Ivanisenya
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Shinnik Yaroslavl · On: Maksim Karaev · Off: Nikita Chistyakov
FTFULL TIME Shinnik Yaroslavl 2–0 Tekstilshchik
FTShinnik Yaroslavl 2–0 Tekstilshchik · Shinnik Yaroslavl win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Shinnik Yaroslavl win56%

Draw27%

Tekstilshchik win17%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Shinnik

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Shinnik Yaroslavl

4-3-3

66 N. Yanovich

17 E. Valiakhmetov

53 N. Kotin

62 V. Karpov

23 N. Chistyakov

64 O. Lanin

7 D. Martovoy

50 A. Golubev

10 A. Gongapshev

24 I. Azyavin

15 D. Samoylov

Coach · Denis Boyarintsev

Substitutes

13 · D. Yanov

19 · Y. Arbuzov

21 · D. Pushkarev

27 · A. Chernyi

33 · A. Lavrenkov

49 · M. Karaev

54 · I. Shmakov

77 · A. Antonov

88 · D. Mironov

95 · D. Vambolt

Tekstilshchik

4-2-3-1

58 S. Fadeev

2 A. Gapechkin

3 D. Marugin

74 E. Guziev

23 D. Ivannikov

7 A. Dzhebov

21 D. Ivanisenia

29 K. Nikitin

30 D. Simonov

83 N. Ishchenko

77 S. Biblik

Coach · Dmitriy Pyatibratov

Substitutes

11 · M. Kriushichev

17 · A. Mikhailusov

18 · I. Ivanov

19 · M. Noskov

27 · A. Krutovskikh

55 · V. Gapeev

66 · Y. Petin

87 · A. Filev

91 · A. Pomalyuk

95 · M. Volkov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Shinnik Yaroslavl

4-3-3

66 N. Yanovich

17 E. Valiakhmetov

53 N. Kotin

62 V. Karpov

23 N. Chistyakov

64 O. Lanin

7 D. Martovoy

50 A. Golubev

10 A. Gongapshev

24 I. Azyavin

15 D. Samoylov

Coach · Denis Boyarintsev

Substitutes

13 · D. Yanov

19 · Y. Arbuzov

21 · D. Pushkarev

27 · A. Chernyi

33 · A. Lavrenkov

49 · M. Karaev

54 · I. Shmakov

77 · A. Antonov

88 · D. Mironov

95 · D. Vambolt

Tekstilshchik

4-2-3-1

58 S. Fadeev

2 A. Gapechkin

3 D. Marugin

74 E. Guziev

23 D. Ivannikov

7 A. Dzhebov

21 D. Ivanisenia

29 K. Nikitin

30 D. Simonov

83 N. Ishchenko

77 S. Biblik

Coach · Dmitriy Pyatibratov

Substitutes

11 · M. Kriushichev

17 · A. Mikhailusov

18 · I. Ivanov

19 · M. Noskov

27 · A. Krutovskikh

55 · V. Gapeev

66 · Y. Petin

87 · A. Filev

91 · A. Pomalyuk

95 · M. Volkov

Our number · shinnik yaroslavl winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

56% The market55%

Us56%

~~Market~~55%

We make Shinnik Yaroslavl a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · shinnik yaroslavl win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 55% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shinnik Yaroslavl win	56%	55%	+1
Draw	27%	27%	0
Tekstilshchik win	17%	18%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	40%	42%	−3
Both teams to score	40%	44%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	66%	67%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	23%	−3
Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw	83%	82%	+1
Shinnik Yaroslavl clean sheet	49%	–	–
Tekstilshchik clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.2%

0123450 11.3 7.1 2.9 1 15.2 11.9 4.2 2 12.0 8.5 3.1 3 6.3 4.4 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shinnik Yaroslavl down, Tekstilshchik across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,714 First League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Tekstilshchik away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Shinnik Yaroslavl, 0.73 for Tekstilshchik. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:06. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in First League

SHINNIK YAROSLAVL

WDDDLD3–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

TEKSTILSHCHIK

WLLLDL1–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	12	+22	31
2	Ural	12	+14	25
3	Spartak Kostroma	13	+5	24
4	FC Sochi	12	+7	23
5	Veles	13	+1	23
6	Torpedo Moskva	12	+12	21
7	FC UFA	12	+3	18
8	Rotor Volgograd	12	+6	17
9	Shinnik Yaroslavl	12	+2	16
10	Arsenal Tula	13	−9	16
11	Chelyabinsk	13	−4	15
12	Volga Ulyanovsk	13	−3	14
13	Enisey	12	−5	14
14	Leningradets	12	−10	13
15	FK Neftekhimik	13	−10	12
16	KAMAZ	12	−8	9
17	Tekstilshchik	12	−11	7
18	Ska-khabarovsk	12	−12	6