Shinnik Yaroslavl v Spartak Kostroma prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Shinnik YaroslavlDrawSpartak Kostroma

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Shinnik Yaroslavl 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shinnik Yaroslavl are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shinnik Yaroslavl 39%, draw 30%, Spartak Kostroma 31%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Shinnik Yaroslavl v Spartak KostromaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Shinnik Yaroslavl win39%

Draw30%

Spartak Kostroma win31%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 15

VenueShinnik

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shinnik Yaroslavl

Spartak Kostroma

8Days since last match9

Last match: 18 Oct · the Russian First League

Last match: 17 Oct · the Russian First League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	+7	27
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	+4	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shinnik yaroslavl winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

39% The market36%

Us39%

~~Market~~36%

We make Shinnik Yaroslavl a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shinnik Yaroslavl v Spartak Kostroma~~1.17 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 27~~8 v 4

~~The market · Shinnik Yaroslavl win~~36% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Shinnik Yaroslavl win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shinnik Yaroslavl win	39%	36%	+3
Draw	30%	32%	−2
Spartak Kostroma win	31%	32%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	37%	38%	−1
Both teams to score	44%	46%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	65%	64%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	18%	20%	−2
Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw	69%	68%	+1
Shinnik Yaroslavl clean sheet	36%	–	–
Spartak Kostroma clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 12.1 10.8 5.8 2.0 1 12.5 13.7 6.7 2.3 2 7.7 7.7 3.9 3 3.0 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shinnik Yaroslavl down, Spartak Kostroma across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,735 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 132 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Spartak Kostroma away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Shinnik Yaroslavl, 1.02 for Spartak Kostroma. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SPA 1–1 SHI · SHI 2–2 SPA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 5 Sept

SHINNIK YAROSLAVL

DDLDWD2–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

SPARTAK KOSTROMA

WWWLLW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	15	+29	40
2	FC Sochi	15	+11	32
3	Torpedo Moskva	15	+15	28
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	+7	27
5	Veles	15	+2	27
6	Ural	14	+12	25
7	FC UFA	15	+3	21
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	+4	20
9	Rotor Volgograd	15	+5	19
10	Arsenal Tula	15	−10	19
11	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	−2	18
12	Chelyabinsk	14	−5	15
13	Enisey	15	−14	14
14	KAMAZ	15	−8	13
15	Leningradets	14	−14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	−11	12
17	Ska-khabarovsk	15	−10	10
18	Tekstilshchik	15	−14	10