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Rotor Volgograd v Volga Ulyanovsk

Rotor Volgograd

2–2Full time

Volga Ulyanovsk

First League · SAT 10 OCT · Volgograd Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Rotor Volgograd 2–2 Volga Ulyanovsk ROTOR VOLGOGRAD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rotor Volgograd win~~58%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.922

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.800

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rotor Volgograd win at 58%.
5′KICK-OFF Rotor Volgograd v Volga Ulyanovsk
9′4′ and it is 0–1: Volga Ulyanovsk have scored. 0–1 · 30–27–43
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Rotor Volgograd win: 58% at kick-off, 30% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Volga Ulyanovsk win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Rotor Volgograd win 30%)
30′We said Rotor Volgograd at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–29–50
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Rotor Volgograd win: 58% at kick-off, 22% now
45′HALF-TIME Rotor Volgograd 0–1 Volga Ulyanovsk
49′SECOND HALF Rotor Volgograd 0–1 Volga Ulyanovsk
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Rotor Volgograd 1–1 Volga Ulyanovsk · Kirill Folmer
54′⚽ GOAL · 50' Rotor Volgograd 1–1 Volga Ulyanovsk · Artem Simonyan
57′⚽ GOAL · 4' Rotor Volgograd 1–1 Volga Ulyanovsk · Kirill Folmer
57′⚽ GOAL · 50' Rotor Volgograd 1–1 Volga Ulyanovsk · Artem Simonyan
57′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Volga Ulyanovsk · On: Andrey Nikitin · Off: Denis Rakhmanov
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Rotor Volgograd 2–1 Volga Ulyanovsk · Artem Simonyan
74′⚽ GOAL · 71' Rotor Volgograd 2–1 Volga Ulyanovsk
78′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Volga Ulyanovsk · On: Igor Gershun · Off: Kirill Folmer
78′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Volga Ulyanovsk · On: Astemir Khashkulov · Off: Vladislav Yakovlev
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Rotor Volgograd 2–2 Volga Ulyanovsk · Abu-Said Eldarushev
85′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Volga Ulyanovsk · On: Ignat Kasyanov · Off: Konstantin Kovalev
85′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Volga Ulyanovsk · On: Luka Bagatelia · Off: Ruslan Shagiakhmetov
85′⚽ GOAL · 80' Rotor Volgograd 2–2 Volga Ulyanovsk
89′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Rotor Volgograd · On: Aleksandr Khokhlachev · Off: Ilya Rodionov
89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Rotor Volgograd · On: Said Aliev · Off: Aleksandr Khubulov
90′⚽ GOAL · 4' Rotor Volgograd 2–2 Volga Ulyanovsk · Kirill Folmer
90′⚽ GOAL · 50' Rotor Volgograd 2–2 Volga Ulyanovsk · Artem Simonyan
90′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Volga Ulyanovsk · On: Andrey Nikitin · Off: Denis Rakhmanov
90′⚽ GOAL · 70' Rotor Volgograd 2–2 Volga Ulyanovsk · Abu-Said Eldarushev
90′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Volga Ulyanovsk · On: Igor Gershun · Off: Kirill Folmer
90′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Volga Ulyanovsk · On: Astemir Khashkulov · Off: Vladislav Yakovlev
90′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Volga Ulyanovsk · On: Ignat Kasyanov · Off: Konstantin Kovalev
90′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Volga Ulyanovsk · On: Luka Bagatelia · Off: Ruslan Shagiakhmetov
90′⚽ GOAL · 80' Rotor Volgograd 2–2 Volga Ulyanovsk · Luka Bagatelia
90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Rotor Volgograd · On: Aleksandr Khokhlachev · Off: Ilya Rodionov
90′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Rotor Volgograd · On: Said Aliev · Off: Aleksandr Khubulov
FTFULL TIME Rotor Volgograd 2–2 Volga Ulyanovsk
FTRotor Volgograd 2–2 Volga Ulyanovsk · Rotor Volgograd win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Rotor Volgograd win58%

Draw25%

Volga Ulyanovsk win17%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Volgograd Arena

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Rotor Volgograd

4-3-3

13 N. Chagrov

26 R. Baytukov

15 E. Danilkin

17 N. Pokidyshev

24 A. Kleshchenko

10 A. Simonyan

18 I. Rodionov

5 A. Troshechkin

11 A. Eldarushev

28 A. Khubulov

2 I. Manelov

Coach · Dmitriy Parfenov

Substitutes

1 · V. Sugrobov

4 · G. Yudintsev

6 · M. Umnikov

7 · A. Khokhlachev

8 · T. Ayupov

9 · S. Aliev

12 · A. Revazov

20 · I. Litvenok

22 · A. Tsaraev

29 · A. Khityaev

Volga Ulyanovsk

4-2-3-1

95 A. Khodanovich

20 K. Kovalev

88 M. Dziov

50 A. Bykov

5 D. Stepanov

10 R. Shagiakhmetov

99 A. Kostin

8 D. Rakhmanov

9 K. Folmer

55 A. Saplinov

14 V. Yakovlev

Coach · Aleksandr Grishchenko

Substitutes

1 · R. Shakerov

3 · O. Krasilnichenko

7 · A. Nikitin

11 · A. Khashkulov

15 · D. Kokoev

17 · I. Gershun

22 · D. Rakhmanov

60 · I. Kasyanov

77 · L. Bagatelia

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Rotor Volgograd

4-3-3

13 N. Chagrov

26 R. Baytukov

15 E. Danilkin

17 N. Pokidyshev

24 A. Kleshchenko

10 A. Simonyan

18 I. Rodionov

5 A. Troshechkin

11 A. Eldarushev

28 A. Khubulov

2 I. Manelov

Coach · Dmitriy Parfenov

Substitutes

1 · V. Sugrobov

4 · G. Yudintsev

6 · M. Umnikov

7 · A. Khokhlachev

8 · T. Ayupov

9 · S. Aliev

12 · A. Revazov

20 · I. Litvenok

22 · A. Tsaraev

29 · A. Khityaev

Volga Ulyanovsk

4-2-3-1

95 A. Khodanovich

20 K. Kovalev

88 M. Dziov

50 A. Bykov

5 D. Stepanov

10 R. Shagiakhmetov

99 A. Kostin

8 D. Rakhmanov

9 K. Folmer

55 A. Saplinov

14 V. Yakovlev

Coach · Aleksandr Grishchenko

Substitutes

1 · R. Shakerov

3 · O. Krasilnichenko

7 · A. Nikitin

11 · A. Khashkulov

15 · D. Kokoev

17 · I. Gershun

22 · D. Rakhmanov

60 · I. Kasyanov

77 · L. Bagatelia

Our number · rotor volgograd winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

58% The market48%

Us58%

~~Market~~48%

We make Rotor Volgograd a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rotor volgograd win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 46% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rotor Volgograd win	58%	48%	+10
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Volga Ulyanovsk win	17%	24%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	44%	44%	0
Both teams to score	44%	49%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	70%	68%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	24%	−1
Rotor Volgograd or draw	83%	76%	+7
Rotor Volgograd clean sheet	46%	–	–
Volga Ulyanovsk clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 9.4 6.3 2.7 1 13.9 11.6 4.3 2 11.9 9.1 3.6 3 6.7 5.1 4 2.9 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rotor Volgograd down, Volga Ulyanovsk across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,714 First League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rotor Volgograd at home: 2.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Volga Ulyanovsk away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Rotor Volgograd, 0.78 for Volga Ulyanovsk. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ROT 0–0 VOL · VOL 1–2 ROT

Form · last six in First League

ROTOR VOLGOGRAD

LLLDWW1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 2–0

VOLGA ULYANOVSK

DWDLLW2–2 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	12	+22	31
2	Ural	12	+14	25
3	Spartak Kostroma	13	+5	24
4	FC Sochi	12	+7	23
5	Veles	13	+1	23
6	Torpedo Moskva	12	+12	21
7	FC UFA	12	+3	18
8	Rotor Volgograd	12	+6	17
9	Shinnik Yaroslavl	12	+2	16
10	Arsenal Tula	13	−9	16
11	Chelyabinsk	13	−4	15
12	Volga Ulyanovsk	13	−3	14
13	Enisey	12	−5	14
14	Leningradets	12	−10	13
15	FK Neftekhimik	13	−10	12
16	KAMAZ	12	−8	9
17	Tekstilshchik	12	−11	7
18	Ska-khabarovsk	12	−12	6