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Rotor Volgograd v FC Sochi
Rotor Volgograd
FC SochiFirst League · FRI 16 OCT · Volgograd Arena
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Rotor Volgograd win at 43%.
- 2′Much as we predicted: Rotor Volgograd was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
- 2′KICK-OFF Rotor Volgograd v FC Sochi
- 17′FC Sochi score on 16′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 17–24–59
- 17′FC Sochi score on 17′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 17–24–59
- 17′We said Rotor Volgograd at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–24–59
- 17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Rotor Volgograd 0–1 FC Sochi
- 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Rotor Volgograd win: 43% at kick-off, 17% now
- 17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' FC Sochi win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Rotor Volgograd win 17%)
- 20′SUBSTITUTION · 17' Rotor Volgograd · On: Georgiy Yudintsev · Off: Nikolay Pokidyshev
- 29′We said Rotor Volgograd at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–61
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 14–24–62
- 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Rotor Volgograd win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
- 43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' FC Sochi
- 45′HALF-TIME Rotor Volgograd 0–1 FC Sochi
- 46′SECOND HALF Rotor Volgograd 0–1 FC Sochi
- 47′We said Rotor Volgograd at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
- 54′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Rotor Volgograd
- 63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Rotor Volgograd · On: Said Aliev · Off: Artem Simonyan
- 65′We said Rotor Volgograd at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
- 66′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Rotor Volgograd
- 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Rotor Volgograd win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rotor Volgograd · On: Aleksandr Khubulov · Off: Abu-Said Eldarushev
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rotor Volgograd · On: Aleksandr Khokhlachev · Off: Ilya Rodionov
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rotor Volgograd · On: Egor Danilkin · Off: Irakliy Manelov
- 72′Rotor Volgograd have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 3–17–80
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FC Sochi · On: Oleg Kozhemyakin · Off: Aleksandr Osipov
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Sochi · On: Pavel Meleshin · Off: Zakhar Fedorov
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Sochi · On: Maksim Kuzmin · Off: Mikhail Ignatov
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Sochi · On: Ramil Sheydayev · Off: Aleksandr Metsiev
- 90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Rotor Volgograd
- 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' FC Sochi · On: Roman Pasevich · Off: Ruslan Magal
- 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Timofey Mitrov · FC Sochi
- FTFULL TIME Rotor Volgograd 0–1 FC Sochi
- FTRotor Volgograd 0–1 FC Sochi · Rotor Volgograd win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassRotor Volgograd are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Rotor Volgograd 43%, draw 28%, FC Sochi 29%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Rotor Volgograd win43%
FC Sochi win29%Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:00
RoundMatchday 14
VenueVolgograd Arena
Match timeline
All events
Rotor VolgogradMIN
FC SochiEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rotor Volgograd
4-3-3
FC Sochi
3-4-3
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Rotor Volgograd
FC Sochi
Last match: 10 Oct · the Russian First League
Last match: 11 Oct · the Russian First League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Rotor Volgograd
4-3-3
13 N. Chagrov
29 A. Khityaev
17 N. Pokidyshev
25 Emerson
24 A. Kleshchenko
6 M. Umnikov
10 A. Simonyan
5 A. Troshechkin
18 I. Rodionov
11 A. Eldarushev
2 I. Manelov
Coach · Dmitriy Parfenov
Substitutes
1 · V. Sugrobov
4 · G. Yudintsev
7 · A. Khokhlachev
8 · T. Ayupov
9 · S. Aliev
12 · A. Revazov
15 · E. Danilkin
20 · I. Litvenok
22 · A. Tsaraev
28 · A. Khubulov
FC Sochi
3-4-3
51 T. Mitrov
44 N. Stojic
33 Marcelo Alves
3 A. Soldatenkov
27 K. Zaika
66 A. Metsiev
5 A. Osipov
17 A. Makarchuk
28 R. Magal
8 M. Ignatov
9 Z. Fedorov
Coach · Igor Osinkin
Substitutes
6 · M. Kuzmin
7 · R. Sheydayev
11 · P. Meleshin
22 · O. Kozhemyakin
59 · R. Bart
60 · M. Nosatiy
85 · D. Silev
97 · R. Pasevich
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Rotor Volgograd
4-3-3
13 N. Chagrov
29 A. Khityaev
17 N. Pokidyshev
25 Emerson
24 A. Kleshchenko
6 M. Umnikov
10 A. Simonyan
5 A. Troshechkin
18 I. Rodionov
11 A. Eldarushev
2 I. Manelov
Coach · Dmitriy Parfenov
Substitutes
1 · V. Sugrobov
4 · G. Yudintsev
7 · A. Khokhlachev
8 · T. Ayupov
9 · S. Aliev
12 · A. Revazov
15 · E. Danilkin
20 · I. Litvenok
22 · A. Tsaraev
28 · A. Khubulov
FC Sochi
3-4-3
51 T. Mitrov
44 N. Stojic
33 Marcelo Alves
3 A. Soldatenkov
27 K. Zaika
66 A. Metsiev
5 A. Osipov
17 A. Makarchuk
28 R. Magal
8 M. Ignatov
9 Z. Fedorov
Coach · Igor Osinkin
Substitutes
6 · M. Kuzmin
7 · R. Sheydayev
11 · P. Meleshin
22 · O. Kozhemyakin
59 · R. Bart
60 · M. Nosatiy
85 · D. Silev
97 · R. Pasevich
We make Rotor Volgograd a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rotor Volgograd win | 43% | 36% | +7 |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | −2 |
| FC Sochi win | 29% | 34% | −5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 39% | +7 |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 46% | +4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 64% | +7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 20% | +4 |
| Rotor Volgograd or draw | 71% | 66% | +5 |
| Rotor Volgograd clean sheet | 33% | – | – |
| FC Sochi clean sheet | 25% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in First League this season · since 24 Aug
ROTOR VOLGOGRAD
FC SOCHI
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 13 | +27 | 34 |
| 2 | FC Sochi | 13 | +8 | 26 |
| 3 | Veles | 14 | +2 | 26 |
| 4 | Ural | 13 | +13 | 25 |
| 5 | Torpedo Moskva | 13 | +14 | 24 |
| 6 | Spartak Kostroma | 13 | +5 | 24 |
| 7 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 13 | +4 | 19 |
| 8 | Rotor Volgograd | 13 | +6 | 18 |
| 9 | FC UFA | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tula | 13 | −9 | 16 |
| 11 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 14 | −3 | 15 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk | 13 | −4 | 15 |
| 13 | Enisey | 13 | −10 | 14 |
| 14 | Leningradets | 13 | −12 | 13 |
| 15 | FK Neftekhimik | 13 | −10 | 12 |
| 16 | KAMAZ | 13 | −8 | 10 |
| 17 | Ska-khabarovsk | 13 | −12 | 7 |
| 18 | Tekstilshchik | 13 | −13 | 7 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Nizhny Novgorod
Veles
Ural
Torpedo Moskva
Spartak Kostroma
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FC UFA
Arsenal Tula
Volga Ulyanovsk
Chelyabinsk
Enisey
Leningradets
FK Neftekhimik
KAMAZ
Ska-khabarovsk
Tekstilshchik