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Rotor Volgograd v FC Sochi

Rotor Volgograd
0–1Full time
FC Sochi

First League · FRI 16 OCT · Volgograd Arena

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 19:31
Rotor Volgograd 0–1 FC Sochi ROTOR VOLGOGRAD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Rotor Volgograd win43%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.759
The market’s Brier score0.655

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Rotor Volgograd win at 43%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Rotor Volgograd was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Rotor Volgograd v FC Sochi
  4. 17′FC Sochi score on 16′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 17–24–59
  5. 17′FC Sochi score on 17′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 17–24–59
  6. 17′We said Rotor Volgograd at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–24–59
  7. 17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Rotor Volgograd 0–1 FC Sochi
  8. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Rotor Volgograd win: 43% at kick-off, 17% now
  9. 17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' FC Sochi win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Rotor Volgograd win 17%)
  10. 20′SUBSTITUTION · 17' Rotor Volgograd · On: Georgiy Yudintsev · Off: Nikolay Pokidyshev
  11. 29′We said Rotor Volgograd at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–61
  12. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 14–24–62
  13. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Rotor Volgograd win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
  14. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' FC Sochi
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Rotor Volgograd 0–1 FC Sochi
  16. 46′SECOND HALF Rotor Volgograd 0–1 FC Sochi
  17. 47′We said Rotor Volgograd at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
  18. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Rotor Volgograd
  19. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Rotor Volgograd · On: Said Aliev · Off: Artem Simonyan
  20. 65′We said Rotor Volgograd at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
  21. 66′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Rotor Volgograd
  22. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Rotor Volgograd win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
  23. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rotor Volgograd · On: Aleksandr Khubulov · Off: Abu-Said Eldarushev
  24. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rotor Volgograd · On: Aleksandr Khokhlachev · Off: Ilya Rodionov
  25. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rotor Volgograd · On: Egor Danilkin · Off: Irakliy Manelov
  26. 72′Rotor Volgograd have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  27. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FC Sochi · On: Oleg Kozhemyakin · Off: Aleksandr Osipov
  28. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Sochi · On: Pavel Meleshin · Off: Zakhar Fedorov
  29. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Sochi · On: Maksim Kuzmin · Off: Mikhail Ignatov
  30. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Sochi · On: Ramil Sheydayev · Off: Aleksandr Metsiev
  31. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Rotor Volgograd
  32. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' FC Sochi · On: Roman Pasevich · Off: Ruslan Magal
  33. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Timofey Mitrov · FC Sochi
  34. FTFULL TIME Rotor Volgograd 0–1 FC Sochi
  35. FTRotor Volgograd 0–1 FC Sochi · Rotor Volgograd win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rotor Volgograd are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rotor Volgograd 43%, draw 28%, FC Sochi 29%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Rotor Volgograd v FC SochiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Rotor Volgograd win43%
Draw28%
FC Sochi win29%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueVolgograd Arena

Line-ups

Rotor Volgograd

4-3-3

FC Sochi

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rotor Volgograd

FC Sochi

6Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · the Russian First League

Last match: 11 Oct · the Russian First League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2FC Sochi13+826
8Rotor Volgograd13+618

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rotor Volgograd

4-3-3

13 N. Chagrov

29 A. Khityaev

17 N. Pokidyshev

25 Emerson

24 A. Kleshchenko

6 M. Umnikov

10 A. Simonyan

5 A. Troshechkin

18 I. Rodionov

11 A. Eldarushev

2 I. Manelov

Coach · Dmitriy Parfenov

Substitutes

1 · V. Sugrobov

4 · G. Yudintsev

7 · A. Khokhlachev

8 · T. Ayupov

9 · S. Aliev

12 · A. Revazov

15 · E. Danilkin

20 · I. Litvenok

22 · A. Tsaraev

28 · A. Khubulov

FC Sochi

3-4-3

51 T. Mitrov

44 N. Stojic

33 Marcelo Alves

3 A. Soldatenkov

27 K. Zaika

66 A. Metsiev

5 A. Osipov

17 A. Makarchuk

28 R. Magal

8 M. Ignatov

9 Z. Fedorov

Coach · Igor Osinkin

Substitutes

6 · M. Kuzmin

7 · R. Sheydayev

11 · P. Meleshin

22 · O. Kozhemyakin

59 · R. Bart

60 · M. Nosatiy

85 · D. Silev

97 · R. Pasevich

Our number · rotor volgograd winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
43% The market36%
Us43%
Market36%

We make Rotor Volgograd a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Rotor Volgograd v FC Sochi1.40 – 1.11
Form · last six in First League this season · since 24 AugW2 D2 L2 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 18 v 268 v 2
The market · Rotor Volgograd win36% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0516 OCT 16:30
Our probability · Rotor Volgograd win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Rotor Volgograd win43%36%+7
Draw28%30%−2
FC Sochi win29%34%−5
Over 2.5 goals46%39%+7
Both teams to score50%46%+4
Over 1.5 goals71%64%+7
Over 3.5 goals24%20%+4
Rotor Volgograd or draw71%66%+5
Rotor Volgograd clean sheet33%––
FC Sochi clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%
0123450 9.1 8.6 5.1 1 10.9 13.0 6.8 2.6 2 7.9 8.6 4.7 3 3.7 4.0 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Rotor Volgograd down, FC Sochi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsROT 1–1 FCS · FCS 0–0 ROT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 24 Aug

ROTOR VOLGOGRAD

LLDWWD0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 2–2

FC SOCHI

WWLWDW3–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Nizhny Novgorod13+2734
2FC Sochi13+826
3Veles14+226
4Ural13+1325
5Torpedo Moskva13+1424
6Spartak Kostroma13+524
7Shinnik Yaroslavl13+419
8Rotor Volgograd13+618
9FC UFA13+218
10Arsenal Tula13−916
11Volga Ulyanovsk14−315
12Chelyabinsk13−415
13Enisey13−1014
14Leningradets13−1213
15FK Neftekhimik13−1012
16KAMAZ13−810
17Ska-khabarovsk13−127
18Tekstilshchik13−137

The competition's standings before kick-off.