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Nizhny Novgorod v Enisey

Nizhny Novgorod

5–0Full time

Enisey

First League · SAT 10 OCT · Nizhny Novgorod Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Nizhny Novgorod 5–0 Enisey NIZHNY NOVGOROD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nizhny Novgorod win~~62%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.215

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.255

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nizhny Novgorod win at 62%.
5′A goal for Nizhny Novgorod on 5′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 62–20–18
5′KICK-OFF Nizhny Novgorod v Enisey
7′⚽ GOAL · 5' Nizhny Novgorod 1–0 Enisey
21′⚽ GOAL · 19' Nizhny Novgorod 2–0 Enisey
25′19′ and it is 2–0: Gleb Popolitov on the scoresheet for Nizhny Novgorod. 2–0 · 94–4–1
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Nizhny Novgorod win: 62% at kick-off, 94% now
42′SUBSTITUTION · 36' Nizhny Novgorod · On: Nikita Ermakov · Off: Andrey Ivlev
45′We said Nizhny Novgorod at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Enisey
45′HALF-TIME Nizhny Novgorod 2–0 Enisey
46′SECOND HALF Nizhny Novgorod 2–0 Enisey
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Enisey · On: David Kokoev · Off: Andrea Chukanov
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nizhny Novgorod · On: Valeriy Tsarukyan · Off: Ivan Bober
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nizhny Novgorod · On: Valeriy Tsarukyan · Off: Ivan Bober
57′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Nizhny Novgorod
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Nizhny Novgorod 3–0 Enisey · Vyacheslav Grulev
60′⚽ GOAL · 5' Nizhny Novgorod 3–0 Enisey · Andrey Ivlev
60′⚽ GOAL · 19' Nizhny Novgorod 3–0 Enisey · Vyacheslav Grulev
60′SUBSTITUTION · 36' Nizhny Novgorod · On: Nikita Ermakov · Off: Andrey Ivlev
60′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Aleksandr Nadolskiy · Enisey
60′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Enisey · On: Rodion Pechura · Off: Aleksandr Nadolskiy
60′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Enisey · On: David Kokoev · Off: Andrea Chukanov
60′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nizhny Novgorod · On: Valeriy Tsarukyan · Off: Ivan Bober
60′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Vyacheslav Grulev · Nizhny Novgorod
63′⚽ GOAL · 59' Nizhny Novgorod 3–0 Enisey · Vladislav Sarveli
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Nizhny Novgorod 4–0 Enisey · Vladislav Sarveli
67′⚽ GOAL · 63' Nizhny Novgorod 4–0 Enisey
67′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Enisey
76′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Nizhny Novgorod · On: Timofey Komissarov · Off: Vyacheslav Grulev
76′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Nizhny Novgorod · On: Vladimir Ignatenko · Off: Vladislav Sarveli
76′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Enisey · On: Maksim Balakhonov · Off: Nikita Shershov
76′🟨 YELLOW · 70' David Kokoev · Enisey
84′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Enisey · On: Aleksandr Lomakin · Off: Aleksandr Kanaplin
84′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Enisey · On: Luka Ratković · Off: Andrey Okladnikov
84′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Nizhny Novgorod · On: Gleb Shilnikov · Off: Yuriy Koledin
88′⚽ GOAL · 85' Nizhny Novgorod 4–0 Enisey
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Nizhny Novgorod 5–0 Enisey · Vyacheslav Grulev
FTFULL TIME Nizhny Novgorod 5–0 Enisey
FTNizhny Novgorod 5–0 Enisey · Nizhny Novgorod win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Nizhny Novgorod win62%

Draw20%

Enisey win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Nizhny Novgorod Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Nizhny Novgorod

4-3-3

30 N. Medvedev

3 Y. Koledin

22 N. Kakkoev

2 V. Aleksandrov

66 Y. Gudkov

77 A. Ivlev

78 N. Kalinski

7 I. Bober

11 G. Popolitov

27 V. Grulev

9 V. Sarveli

Coach · Vadim Garanin

Substitutes

4 · R. Evgenyev

15 · A. Ektov

17 · G. Shilnikov

19 · N. Ermakov

72 · T. Komissarov

80 · V. Tsarukyan

81 · N. Generalov

91 · V. Ignatenko

98 · I. Imamov

Enisey

4-2-3-1

23 S. Antipin

25 N. Shershov

22 A. Gyurdzhan

55 N. Bogatyrev

33 A. Maslovskiy

7 A. Chukanov

8 A. Kanaplin

18 A. Nadolskiy

21 E. Ivanov

87 A. Mazurin

75 A. Okladnikov

Coach · Vyacheslav Molchanov

Substitutes

1 · M. Oparin

3 · Y. Tses

10 · A. Aliyev

15 · M. Balakhonov

17 · D. Kokoev

27 · L. Ratkovic

77 · R. Ogienko

81 · R. Pechura

90 · A. Lomakin

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Nizhny Novgorod

4-3-3

30 N. Medvedev

3 Y. Koledin

22 N. Kakkoev

2 V. Aleksandrov

66 Y. Gudkov

77 A. Ivlev

78 N. Kalinski

7 I. Bober

11 G. Popolitov

27 V. Grulev

9 V. Sarveli

Coach · Vadim Garanin

Substitutes

4 · R. Evgenyev

15 · A. Ektov

17 · G. Shilnikov

19 · N. Ermakov

72 · T. Komissarov

80 · V. Tsarukyan

81 · N. Generalov

91 · V. Ignatenko

98 · I. Imamov

Enisey

4-2-3-1

23 S. Antipin

25 N. Shershov

22 A. Gyurdzhan

55 N. Bogatyrev

33 A. Maslovskiy

7 A. Chukanov

8 A. Kanaplin

18 A. Nadolskiy

21 E. Ivanov

87 A. Mazurin

75 A. Okladnikov

Coach · Vyacheslav Molchanov

Substitutes

1 · M. Oparin

3 · Y. Tses

10 · A. Aliyev

15 · M. Balakhonov

17 · D. Kokoev

27 · L. Ratkovic

77 · R. Ogienko

81 · R. Pechura

90 · A. Lomakin

Our number · nizhny novgorod winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

62% The market59%

Us62%

~~Market~~59%

We make Nizhny Novgorod a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nizhny novgorod win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 59% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nizhny Novgorod win	62%	59%	+3
Draw	20%	23%	−3
Enisey win	18%	18%	0
Over 2.5 goals	64%	56%	+9
Both teams to score	59%	54%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	85%	78%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	43%	35%	+8
Nizhny Novgorod or draw	82%	82%	0
Nizhny Novgorod clean sheet	34%	–	–
Enisey clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 4.2 3.6 2.2 1 7.6 9.1 4.8 2 8.8 9.5 5.2 3 6.5 7.1 3.9 4 3.7 4.0 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nizhny Novgorod down, Enisey across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,714 First League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Nizhny Novgorod at home: 4.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Enisey away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.23 goals for Nizhny Novgorod, 1.10 for Enisey. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:06. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in First League

NIZHNY NOVGOROD

LWDWWW2–3 · 4–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 6–0

ENISEY

LDLLWD1–3 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	12	+22	31
2	Ural	12	+14	25
3	Spartak Kostroma	13	+5	24
4	FC Sochi	12	+7	23
5	Veles	13	+1	23
6	Torpedo Moskva	12	+12	21
7	FC UFA	12	+3	18
8	Rotor Volgograd	12	+6	17
9	Shinnik Yaroslavl	12	+2	16
10	Arsenal Tula	13	−9	16
11	Chelyabinsk	13	−4	15
12	Volga Ulyanovsk	13	−3	14
13	Enisey	12	−5	14
14	Leningradets	12	−10	13
15	FK Neftekhimik	13	−10	12
16	KAMAZ	12	−8	9
17	Tekstilshchik	12	−11	7
18	Ska-khabarovsk	12	−12	6