Nizhny Novgorod v Arsenal Tula prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Nizhny NovgorodDrawArsenal Tula

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Nizhny Novgorod 73%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nizhny Novgorod are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nizhny Novgorod 73%, draw 16%, Arsenal Tula 11%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Nizhny Novgorod v Arsenal TulaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Nizhny Novgorod win73%

Draw16%

Arsenal Tula win11%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 16

VenueSovcombank Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nizhny Novgorod

Arsenal Tula

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Russian First League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nizhny novgorod winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

73% The market–

Us73%

We make Nizhny Novgorod a 73% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nizhny Novgorod v Arsenal Tula~~2.63 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 5 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 40 v 19~~1 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nizhny Novgorod win	73%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Arsenal Tula win	11%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Nizhny Novgorod or draw	89%	–	–
Nizhny Novgorod clean sheet	39%	–	–
Arsenal Tula clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.7%

0123450 3.4 2.5 1 7.3 7.3 3.3 2 9.7 8.9 4.2 3 8.4 7.7 3.6 4 5.6 5.1 2.4 5 3.0 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Nizhny Novgorod down, Arsenal Tula across0–5 goals a side shown (94.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,735 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 132 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nizhny Novgorod at home: 4.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Arsenal Tula away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.63 goals for Nizhny Novgorod, 0.94 for Arsenal Tula. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ARS 0–2 NIZ · NIZ 1–2 ARS · ARS 2–2 NIZ · NIZ 2–3 ARS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 5 Sept

NIZHNY NOVGOROD

WWWWWW1–0 · 2–1 · 6–0 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

ARSENAL TULA

LDLWLW0–3 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	15	+29	40
2	FC Sochi	15	+11	32
3	Torpedo Moskva	15	+15	28
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	+7	27
5	Veles	15	+2	27
6	Ural	14	+12	25
7	FC UFA	15	+3	21
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	+4	20
9	Rotor Volgograd	15	+5	19
10	Arsenal Tula	15	−10	19
11	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	−2	18
12	Chelyabinsk	14	−5	15
13	Enisey	15	−14	14
14	KAMAZ	15	−8	13
15	Leningradets	14	−14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	−11	12
17	Ska-khabarovsk	15	−10	10
18	Tekstilshchik	15	−14	10