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Leningradets v Torpedo Moskva

Leningradets

1–3Full time

Torpedo Moskva

First League · SAT 10 OCT · Nova Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Leningradets 1–3 Torpedo Moskva TORPEDO MOSKVA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Torpedo Moskva win~~49%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.393

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.268

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Torpedo Moskva win at 49%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Torpedo Moskva 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 23–27–49
2′KICK-OFF Leningradets v Torpedo Moskva
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Leningradets 0–0 Torpedo Moskva
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Leningradets 0–1 Torpedo Moskva
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Leningradets 0–2 Torpedo Moskva · Jonathan Okoronkwo
22′3′ and it is 0–2: Jonathan Okoronkwo on the scoresheet for Torpedo Moskva. 0–2 · 1–5–94
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Torpedo Moskva win: 49% at kick-off, 94% now
23′⚽ GOAL · 20' Leningradets 0–2 Torpedo Moskva
41′SUBSTITUTION · 37' Leningradets · On: Kirill Morozov · Off: Sergei Nikolaev
41′⚽ GOAL · 39' Leningradets 0–2 Torpedo Moskva
43′A goal for Leningradets on 39′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–96
45′HALF-TIME Leningradets 0–2 Torpedo Moskva
47′SECOND HALF Leningradets 0–2 Torpedo Moskva
48′Torpedo Moskva ahead on 20′ through Artem Pogosov. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–96
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Leningradets 1–2 Torpedo Moskva · Artem Pogosov
58′⚽ GOAL · 53' Leningradets 1–2 Torpedo Moskva · Roman Kudryavtsev
58′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Torpedo Moskva · On: Ruslan Apekov · Off: Aleksandr Yushin
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Leningradets 1–3 Torpedo Moskva · Roman Kudryavtsev
66′⚽ GOAL · 63' Leningradets 1–3 Torpedo Moskva · Artem Pogosov
68′63′ and it is 1–3: Artem Pogosov on the scoresheet for Torpedo Moskva. 1–3 · 0–1–99
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Torpedo Moskva win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Leningradets · On: Maksim bachinski · Off: Artem Kulishev
81′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Torpedo Moskva · On: Dmitriy Tsypchenko · Off: Aleksey Kashtanov
81′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Alexandrovich dmitry yakovlev · Leningradets
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Leningradets · On: Olivier Kenfack · Off: Alexandrovich dmitry yakovlev
90′We said Torpedo Moskva at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Torpedo Moskva · On: Vladimir Moskvichev · Off: Artem Pogosov
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Torpedo Moskva · On: Aleksandr Orekhov · Off: Stepan Oganesyan
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Torpedo Moskva · On: Usman ajibona · Off: Jonathan Okoronkwo
90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Torpedo Moskva
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Leningradets
FTFULL TIME Leningradets 1–3 Torpedo Moskva
FTLeningradets 1–3 Torpedo Moskva · Torpedo Moskva win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Leningradets win23%

Draw28%

Torpedo Moskva win49%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

Venue · Nova Arena

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Leningradets

4-4-2

96 A. Kuznetsov

78 G. Kiselev

4 R. Kudryavtsev

44 N. Kalugin

2 S. Nikolaev

10 E. Zarypbekov

6 D. Rodin

21 A. Makarov

11 D. Yakovlev

32 A. Kulishev

7 D. Nikitin

Coach · Sergey Podpaliy

Substitutes

1 · E. Smirnov

5 · K. Morozov

14 · O. Kenfak

19 · A. Maksetsov

31 · I. Orlyansky

52 · I. Petukhov

77 · M. Bachinskiy

83 · I. Petrov

Torpedo Moskva

4-3-3

58 D. Ladokha

17 I. Berkovsky

2 N. Bozov

4 S. Borodin

99 G. Shevchenko

24 A. Pogosov

97 M. Curic

7 A. Yushin

20 J. Okoronkwo

79 A. Kashtanov

9 S. Oganesyan

Coach · Aleksandr Storozhuk

Substitutes

3 · A. Ivankov

5 · V. Moskvichev

8 · U. Ajibona

10 · D. Tsypchenko

11 · R. Apekov

21 · A. Galoyan

22 · E. Parkhomenko

27 · A. Orekhov

48 · S. Mokrousov

84 · V. Churilov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Leningradets

4-4-2

96 A. Kuznetsov

78 G. Kiselev

4 R. Kudryavtsev

44 N. Kalugin

2 S. Nikolaev

10 E. Zarypbekov

6 D. Rodin

21 A. Makarov

11 D. Yakovlev

32 A. Kulishev

7 D. Nikitin

Coach · Sergey Podpaliy

Substitutes

1 · E. Smirnov

5 · K. Morozov

14 · O. Kenfak

19 · A. Maksetsov

31 · I. Orlyansky

52 · I. Petukhov

77 · M. Bachinskiy

83 · I. Petrov

Torpedo Moskva

4-3-3

58 D. Ladokha

17 I. Berkovsky

2 N. Bozov

4 S. Borodin

99 G. Shevchenko

24 A. Pogosov

97 M. Curic

7 A. Yushin

20 J. Okoronkwo

79 A. Kashtanov

9 S. Oganesyan

Coach · Aleksandr Storozhuk

Substitutes

3 · A. Ivankov

5 · V. Moskvichev

8 · U. Ajibona

10 · D. Tsypchenko

11 · R. Apekov

21 · A. Galoyan

22 · E. Parkhomenko

27 · A. Orekhov

48 · S. Mokrousov

84 · V. Churilov

Our number · torpedo moskva winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

49% The market58%

Us49%

~~Market~~58%

We make Torpedo Moskva a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · torpedo moskva win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leningradets win	23%	17%	+6
Draw	28%	25%	+3
Torpedo Moskva win	49%	58%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	40%	47%	−7
Both teams to score	44%	47%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	67%	70%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	20%	27%	−7
Leningradets or draw	51%	42%	+9
Leningradets clean sheet	25%	–	–
Torpedo Moskva clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.7%

0123450 11.1 13.7 10.1 4.8 1 8.3 12.8 8.6 4.1 2 3.9 5.4 3.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leningradets down, Torpedo Moskva across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,714 First League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leningradets at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Torpedo Moskva away: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.87 goals for Leningradets, 1.42 for Torpedo Moskva. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 11:37. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LEN 2–3 TOR · TOR 2–3 LEN

Form · last six in First League

LENINGRADETS

DLWDLW1–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 0–6 · 1–0

TORPEDO MOSKVA

WWWLDD3–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	12	+22	31
2	Ural	12	+14	25
3	Spartak Kostroma	13	+5	24
4	FC Sochi	12	+7	23
5	Veles	13	+1	23
6	Torpedo Moskva	12	+12	21
7	FC UFA	12	+3	18
8	Rotor Volgograd	12	+6	17
9	Shinnik Yaroslavl	12	+2	16
10	Arsenal Tula	13	−9	16
11	Chelyabinsk	13	−4	15
12	Volga Ulyanovsk	13	−3	14
13	Enisey	12	−5	14
14	Leningradets	12	−10	13
15	FK Neftekhimik	13	−10	12
16	KAMAZ	12	−8	9
17	Tekstilshchik	12	−11	7
18	Ska-khabarovsk	12	−12	6