KAMAZ v Torpedo Moskva prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KAMAZDrawTorpedo Moskva

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Torpedo Moskva 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Torpedo Moskva are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: KAMAZ 30%, draw 29%, Torpedo Moskva 41%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on KAMAZ v Torpedo MoskvaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

KAMAZ win30%

Draw29%

Torpedo Moskva win41%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 16

VenueKAMAZ Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

KAMAZ

Torpedo Moskva

7Days since last match8

Last match: 24 Oct · the Russian First League

Last match: 23 Oct · the Russian First League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Torpedo Moskva	15	+15	28
14	KAMAZ	15	−8	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · torpedo moskva winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Torpedo Moskva a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · KAMAZ v Torpedo Moskva~~1.05 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 28~~14 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KAMAZ win	30%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Torpedo Moskva win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
KAMAZ or draw	59%	–	–
KAMAZ clean sheet	28%	–	–
Torpedo Moskva clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.6 11.8 7.9 3.4 1 9.7 13.4 8.1 3.5 2 5.4 6.8 4.3 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KAMAZ down, Torpedo Moskva across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,735 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 132 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KAMAZ at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Torpedo Moskva away: 2.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for KAMAZ, 1.28 for Torpedo Moskva. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~TOR 2–0 KAM · KAM 1–1 TOR · TOR 1–1 KAM · KAM 1–2 TOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 6 Sept

KAMAZ

LDWDWL0–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 3–4

TORPEDO MOSKVA

LDDWWD1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	15	+29	40
2	FC Sochi	15	+11	32
3	Torpedo Moskva	15	+15	28
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	+7	27
5	Veles	15	+2	27
6	Ural	14	+12	25
7	FC UFA	15	+3	21
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	+4	20
9	Rotor Volgograd	15	+5	19
10	Arsenal Tula	15	−10	19
11	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	−2	18
12	Chelyabinsk	14	−5	15
13	Enisey	15	−14	14
14	KAMAZ	15	−8	13
15	Leningradets	14	−14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	−11	12
17	Ska-khabarovsk	15	−10	10
18	Tekstilshchik	15	−14	10