KAMAZ v FK Neftekhimik

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said KAMAZ win at 44%.
2. 3′Little has changed for our model: KAMAZ 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–30–26
3. 3′KICK-OFF KAMAZ v FK Neftekhimik
4. 20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' FK Neftekhimik
5. 31′We said KAMAZ at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–25–62
6. 31′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 13–25–62
7. 31′A goal for FK Neftekhimik on 28′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–25–62
8. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' KAMAZ 0–1 FK Neftekhimik
9. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' KAMAZ win: 44% at kick-off, 13% now
10. 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' FK Neftekhimik win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was KAMAZ win 13%)
11. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 27' David Khubaev · KAMAZ
12. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 29' KAMAZ
13. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 30' FK Neftekhimik
14. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Roman Akbashev · KAMAZ
15. 45′We said KAMAZ at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
16. 45′Platon Platonov scores for FK Neftekhimik on 28′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–24–66
17. 45′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 9–24–66
18. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Artem Kotik · FK Neftekhimik
19. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' FK Neftekhimik
20. 45′HALF-TIME KAMAZ 0–1 FK Neftekhimik
21. 46′SECOND HALF KAMAZ 0–1 FK Neftekhimik
22. 51′FK Neftekhimik are down to ten from 50′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 8–24–69
23. 51′🟥 RED CARD · 50' Stanislav Puzanov · FK Neftekhimik
24. 64′We said KAMAZ at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
25. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' KAMAZ win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
26. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 52' FK Neftekhimik · On: Sultan Dzhamilov · Off: Artem Kotik
27. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 56' KAMAZ · On: Maksim Laykin · Off: Ruslan Ayukin
28. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 56' KAMAZ · On: Mukhammad Sultonov · Off: David Khubaev
29. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 63' KAMAZ · On: Roman Manuylov · Off: Artem Sukhanov
30. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Sultan Dzhamilov · FK Neftekhimik
31. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Artem Popov · KAMAZ
32. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Enri Mukba · FK Neftekhimik
33. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 77' FK Neftekhimik · On: Ivan Pyatkin · Off: Danila Sukhomlinov
34. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 80' KAMAZ · On: Andrey Solodukhin · Off: Roman Tkachuk
35. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 80' KAMAZ · On: Evgeniy Voronin · Off: Vitaliy Semenov
36. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FK Neftekhimik · On: Islam Mashukov · Off: Enri Mukba
37. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' KAMAZ 1–1 FK Neftekhimik
38. 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was FK Neftekhimik win 4%)
39. 92′85′: Maksim Laykin on the scoresheet for KAMAZ, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 3–95–2
40. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Maksim Burko · KAMAZ
41. 94′We said KAMAZ at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–1 · 99–1–0
42. 94′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 99–1–0
43. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' KAMAZ 2–1 FK Neftekhimik
44. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' KAMAZ win: 44% at kick-off, 99% now
45. 94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' KAMAZ win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
46. FTFULL TIME KAMAZ 2–1 FK Neftekhimik
47. FTKAMAZ 2–1 FK Neftekhimik · KAMAZ win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.