FK Neftekhimik v Leningradets prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FK NeftekhimikDrawLeningradets

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · FK Neftekhimik 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FK Neftekhimik are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FK Neftekhimik 50%, draw 28%, Leningradets 23%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on FK Neftekhimik v LeningradetsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FK Neftekhimik win50%

Draw28%

Leningradets win23%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 15

VenueNeftekhimik Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FK Neftekhimik

Leningradets

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · the Russian First League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Leningradets	14	−14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	−11	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fk neftekhimik winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

50% The market45%

Us50%

~~Market~~45%

We make FK Neftekhimik a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FK Neftekhimik v Leningradets~~1.44 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 13~~16 v 15

~~The market · FK Neftekhimik win~~45% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FK Neftekhimik win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Neftekhimik win	50%	45%	+5
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Leningradets win	23%	26%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	41%	42%	−1
Both teams to score	44%	48%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	67%	67%	0
Over 3.5 goals	20%	23%	−3
FK Neftekhimik or draw	77%	74%	+3
FK Neftekhimik clean sheet	42%	–	–
Leningradets clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 10.8 8.2 3.8 1 13.7 12.7 5.3 2 10.1 8.7 3.8 3 4.9 4.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Neftekhimik down, Leningradets across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,735 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 132 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FK Neftekhimik at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Leningradets away: 0.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for FK Neftekhimik, 0.87 for Leningradets. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FKN 1–2 LEN · LEN 1–2 FKN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 28 Aug

FK NEFTEKHIMIK

LWLLLL0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 1–2

LENINGRADETS

WDLWLL3–2 · 2–2 · 0–6 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	15	+29	40
2	FC Sochi	14	+9	29
3	Torpedo Moskva	15	+15	28
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	+7	27
5	Veles	15	+2	27
6	Ural	14	+12	25
7	FC UFA	15	+3	21
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	+4	20
9	Rotor Volgograd	15	+5	19
10	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	−2	18
11	Arsenal Tula	14	−11	16
12	Chelyabinsk	14	−5	15
13	Enisey	15	−14	14
14	KAMAZ	14	−7	13
15	Leningradets	14	−14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	−11	12
17	Ska-khabarovsk	15	−10	10
18	Tekstilshchik	14	−12	10