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Model 1.1
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FK Neftekhimik v Chelyabinsk

FK Neftekhimik
2–4Full time
Chelyabinsk

First League · FRI 9 OCT · Neftekhimik Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 17:33
FK Neftekhimik 2–4 Chelyabinsk FK NEFTEKHIMIK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FK Neftekhimik win40%
The market said35%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.735
The market’s Brier score0.690

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FK Neftekhimik win40%
Draw29%
Chelyabinsk win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Neftekhimik Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FK Neftekhimik

5-3-2

98 A. Ismagilov

7 S. Dzhamilov

24 A. Kakhidze

22 I. Khomukha

6 N. Pechenkin

13 S. Puzanov

96 N. Vasiljev

85 I. Pyatkin

8 D. Sukhomlinov

12 E. Mukba

14 I. Mashukov

Coach · Robert Evdokimov

Substitutes

1 · A. Golubev

5 · M. Musalov

9 · A. Kotik

11 · S. Abdullaev

15 · A. Bondar

17 · K. Nikishin

19 · L. Sharifullin

27 · A. Budylin

28 · P. Platonov

31 · T. Kasimov

38 · V. Aleynikov

Chelyabinsk

4-2-3-1

93 I. Tuseev

21 A. Berdnikov

15 K. Kochiev

50 V. Lystsov

33 D. Pokotylo

55 G. Borisov

6 S. Makarov

10 R. Gadzhimuradov

7 I. Safronov

70 G. Levin

29 M. Urvantsev

Coach · Roman Pilipchuk

Substitutes

5 · B. Gatin

11 · G. Miroshnichenko

17 · B. N'Diaye

18 · K. Kertanov

24 · N. Pridava

27 · I. Gribakin

31 · M. Pereverzev

72 · A. Bem

74 · L. Kacorri

77 · D. Samoilov

99 · D. Kamenshchikov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FK Neftekhimik

5-3-2

98 A. Ismagilov

7 S. Dzhamilov

24 A. Kakhidze

22 I. Khomukha

6 N. Pechenkin

13 S. Puzanov

96 N. Vasiljev

85 I. Pyatkin

8 D. Sukhomlinov

12 E. Mukba

14 I. Mashukov

Coach · Robert Evdokimov

Substitutes

1 · A. Golubev

5 · M. Musalov

9 · A. Kotik

11 · S. Abdullaev

15 · A. Bondar

17 · K. Nikishin

19 · L. Sharifullin

27 · A. Budylin

28 · P. Platonov

31 · T. Kasimov

38 · V. Aleynikov

Chelyabinsk

4-2-3-1

93 I. Tuseev

21 A. Berdnikov

15 K. Kochiev

50 V. Lystsov

33 D. Pokotylo

55 G. Borisov

6 S. Makarov

10 R. Gadzhimuradov

7 I. Safronov

70 G. Levin

29 M. Urvantsev

Coach · Roman Pilipchuk

Substitutes

5 · B. Gatin

11 · G. Miroshnichenko

17 · B. N'Diaye

18 · K. Kertanov

24 · N. Pridava

27 · I. Gribakin

31 · M. Pereverzev

72 · A. Bem

74 · L. Kacorri

77 · D. Samoilov

99 · D. Kamenshchikov

Our number · fk neftekhimik winPublished 9 Oct 15:04
40% The market35%
Us40%
Market35%

We make FK Neftekhimik a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 9 OCT 06:209 OCT 12:09
Our probability · fk neftekhimik win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 35% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FK Neftekhimik win40%35%+5
Draw29%33%−3
Chelyabinsk win30%32%−2
Over 2.5 goals40%37%+3
Both teams to score46%45%+1
Over 1.5 goals67%62%+5
Over 3.5 goals20%19%+1
FK Neftekhimik or draw70%68%+2
FK Neftekhimik clean sheet36%––
Chelyabinsk clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%
0123450 11.0 10.0 5.5 1 12.0 13.6 6.7 2.4 2 7.8 8.0 4.2 3 3.3 3.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+FK Neftekhimik down, Chelyabinsk across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsCHE 2–0 FKN · FKN 1–1 CHE

Form · last six in First League

FK NEFTEKHIMIK

LWLWLL1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

CHELYABINSK

DLLDWD1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Nizhny Novgorod12+2231
2Ural12+1425
3Spartak Kostroma12+624
4FC Sochi12+723
5Veles13+123
6Torpedo Moskva12+1221
7FC UFA12+318
8Rotor Volgograd12+617
9Shinnik Yaroslavl12+216
10Volga Ulyanovsk13−314
11Enisey12−514
12Arsenal Tula12−1013
13Leningradets12−1013
14Chelyabinsk12−612
15FK Neftekhimik12−812
16KAMAZ12−89
17Tekstilshchik12−117
18Ska-khabarovsk12−126

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.