FC UFA v Arsenal Tula prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

FC UFA 2–0 Arsenal Tula FC UFA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC UFA win~~43%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.486

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.678

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC UFA win at 43%.
2′Much as we predicted: FC UFA was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–30–28
2′KICK-OFF FC UFA v Arsenal Tula
15′FC UFA find the net on 15′. 0–0 · 41–32–27
16′We published FC UFA at 43%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–18–9
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' FC UFA 1–0 Arsenal Tula
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' FC UFA win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–7
31′We published FC UFA at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
32′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Milos Brnovic · Arsenal Tula
45′HALF-TIME FC UFA 1–0 Arsenal Tula
46′SECOND HALF FC UFA 1–0 Arsenal Tula
54′🟨 YELLOW · 50' FC UFA
54′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Arsenal Tula
57′We published FC UFA at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
59′PENALTY MISSED · 52' FC UFA
60′We published FC UFA at 43%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' FC UFA 2–0 Arsenal Tula
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' FC UFA win: 43% at kick-off, 97% now
63′Danil Lipovoy scores for FC UFA on 58′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
67′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Arsenal Tula · On: David Davidyan · Off: Georgiy Uridia
67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Arsenal Tula · On: Aleksandr Alekhin · Off: Ivan Enin
67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Arsenal Tula · On: Igor Gorbunov · Off: Daniil Shamkin
67′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Arsenal Tula
74′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Arsenal Tula · On: Ilya Zhigulev · Off: Timur Melekestsev
74′🟨 YELLOW · 71' David Davidyan · Arsenal Tula
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FC UFA · On: Zalimkhan Yusupov · Off: Shamil Isaev
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FC UFA · On: Danil Akhatov · Off: Migran Ageyan
80′We published FC UFA at 43%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' FC UFA · On: Georgiy Gongadze · Off: Dilan Ortíz
94′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Arsenal Tula · On: Nikita Glushkov · Off: Artem Biryukov
FTFULL TIME FC UFA 2–0 Arsenal Tula
FTFC UFA 2–0 Arsenal Tula · FC UFA win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC UFA are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC UFA 43%, draw 29%, Arsenal Tula 28%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on FC UFA v Arsenal TulaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FC UFA win43%

Draw29%

Arsenal Tula win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueNeftyanik Stadium

Line-ups

FC UFA

4-2-3-1

Arsenal Tula

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC UFA

Arsenal Tula

6Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · the Russian First League

Last match: 9 Oct · the Russian First League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	FC UFA	13	+2	18
10	Arsenal Tula	13	−9	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC UFA

4-2-3-1

31 A. Belenov

2 V. Cherov

5 D. Kutin

99 A. Evdokimov

43 A. Gilyazetdinov

6 Z. Tarba

8 S. Isaev

9 D. Lipovoy

88 M. Ageyan

11 M. Yakuev

70 D. Ortiz

Coach · Omari Tetradze

Substitutes

1 · T. Kraykov

7 · A. Davlitgereev

10 · G. Gongadze

15 · A. Khabalov

17 · D. Ozmanov

19 · E. Mayorov

20 · T. Shipunov

22 · Z. Yusupov

23 · D. Akhatov

69 · I. Khanenko

79 · K. Troyanov

97 · A. Polesovshchikov

Arsenal Tula

4-3-3

42 A. Melikhov

77 D. Plotnikov

24 K. Gotsuk

23 T. Melekestsev

4 D. Penchikov

35 I. Enin

8 D. Shamkin

14 M. Brnovic

25 A. Biryukov

11 R. Magomedov

22 G. Uridia

Coach · Dmitriy Alenichev

Substitutes

5 · Y. Krashevskiy

9 · D. Davidyan

10 · I. Zhigulev

17 · I. Gorbunov

18 · M. Tsulaya

19 · N. Glushkov

36 · M. Levashov

45 · N. Karmaev

71 · A. Efremov

75 · T. Zhamaletdinov

82 · A. Alekhin

Our number · fc ufa winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market33%

Us43%

~~Market~~33%

We make FC UFA a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC UFA v Arsenal Tula~~1.29 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 24 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 18 v 16~~9 v 10

~~The market · FC UFA win~~33% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC UFA win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC UFA win	43%	33%	+10
Draw	29%	29%	0
Arsenal Tula win	28%	38%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	40%	44%	−4
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	67%	69%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	20%	24%	−4
FC UFA or draw	72%	62%	+10
FC UFA clean sheet	38%	–	–
Arsenal Tula clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.1 9.6 5.0 1 12.8 13.4 6.3 2.1 2 8.6 8.3 4.0 3 3.7 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC UFA down, Arsenal Tula across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,722 First League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 119 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC UFA at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Arsenal Tula away: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for FC UFA, 0.98 for Arsenal Tula. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~FCU 1–2 ARS · ARS 2–2 FCU · FCU 1–2 ARS · ARS 0–0 FCU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 24 Aug

FC UFA

WDDLDL1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1

ARSENAL TULA

LDLDLW0–2 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	13	+27	34
2	FC Sochi	14	+9	29
3	Veles	14	+2	26
4	Ural	13	+13	25
5	Torpedo Moskva	13	+14	24
6	Spartak Kostroma	13	+5	24
7	Shinnik Yaroslavl	13	+4	19
8	Rotor Volgograd	14	+5	18
9	FC UFA	13	+2	18
10	Arsenal Tula	13	−9	16
11	Volga Ulyanovsk	14	−3	15
12	Chelyabinsk	13	−4	15
13	Enisey	13	−10	14
14	Leningradets	13	−12	13
15	FK Neftekhimik	13	−10	12
16	KAMAZ	13	−8	10
17	Ska-khabarovsk	13	−12	7
18	Tekstilshchik	13	−13	7