FC Sochi v Ural prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FC SochiDrawUral

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Sochi 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Sochi are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Sochi 43%, draw 27%, Ural 30%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on FC Sochi v UralBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

FC Sochi win43%

Draw27%

Ural win30%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 16

VenueFisht Olympic Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Sochi

Ural

7Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · the Russian First League

Last match: 18 Oct · the Russian First League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	FC Sochi	15	+11	32
6	Ural	14	+12	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc sochi winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make FC Sochi a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Sochi v Ural~~1.45 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 32 v 25~~2 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Sochi win	43%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Ural win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
FC Sochi or draw	70%	–	–
FC Sochi clean sheet	31%	–	–
Ural clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.1 8.1 5.1 2.0 1 10.0 12.7 7.1 2.8 2 7.5 8.7 5.1 2.0 3 3.7 4.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Sochi down, Ural across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,735 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 132 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Sochi at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ural away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for FC Sochi, 1.18 for Ural. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCS 1–0 URA · URA 2–0 FCS · FCS 2–2 URA · URA 1–4 FCS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 5 Sept

FC SOCHI

LWDWWW0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–1

URAL

WDWWLL2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	15	+29	40
2	FC Sochi	15	+11	32
3	Torpedo Moskva	15	+15	28
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	+7	27
5	Veles	15	+2	27
6	Ural	14	+12	25
7	FC UFA	15	+3	21
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	+4	20
9	Rotor Volgograd	15	+5	19
10	Arsenal Tula	15	−10	19
11	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	−2	18
12	Chelyabinsk	14	−5	15
13	Enisey	15	−14	14
14	KAMAZ	15	−8	13
15	Leningradets	14	−14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	−11	12
17	Ska-khabarovsk	15	−10	10
18	Tekstilshchik	15	−14	10