FC Sochi v FC UFA prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

FC Sochi 1–0 FC UFA FC SOCHI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said FC Sochi win~~56%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.298

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.251

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Sochi win at 56%.
2′KICK-OFF FC Sochi v FC UFA
3′Little has changed for our model: FC Sochi 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–24–20
5′🟨 YELLOW · 4' FC Sochi
6′Little has changed for our model: FC Sochi 56% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–25–20
21′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Ruslan Magal · FC Sochi
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' FC Sochi win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' FC Sochi win: 56% at kick-off, 51% now
45′HALF-TIME FC Sochi 0–0 FC UFA
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' FC Sochi win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
46′SECOND HALF FC Sochi 0–0 FC UFA
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' FC Sochi
53′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Ilya Agapov · FC UFA
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' FC Sochi 1–0 FC UFA
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' FC Sochi 1–0 FC UFA
69′SUBSTITUTION · 64' FC Sochi · On: Aleksandr Osipov · Off: Maksim Kuzmin
69′SUBSTITUTION · 64' FC Sochi · On: Oleg Kozhemyakin · Off: Aleksandr Metsiev
77′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC UFA · On: Danil Akhatov · Off: Migran Ageyan
77′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC UFA · On: Dilan Ortíz · Off: Georgiy Gongadze
83′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FC Sochi · On: Pavel Meleshin · Off: Zakhar Fedorov
83′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FC Sochi · On: Ramil Sheydayev · Off: Mikhail Ignatov
87′SUBSTITUTION · 79' FC UFA · On: Akhmed Davlitgereev · Off: Magomed Yakuev
87′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC UFA · On: Zalimkhan Yusupov · Off: Shamil Isaev
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' FC UFA
FTFULL TIME FC Sochi 1–0 FC UFA
FTFC Sochi 1–0 FC UFA · FC Sochi win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

FC Sochi win56%

Draw25%

FC UFA win19%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueFisht Olympic Stadium

Line-ups

FC Sochi

3-4-3

FC UFA

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FC Sochi

FC UFA

23Days since last match14

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	FC Sochi	12	+7	23
9	FC UFA	12	+3	18

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Sochi

3-4-3

51 T. Mitrov

44 N. Stojic

33 Marcelo Alves

4 V. Litvinov

27 K. Zaika

66 A. Metsiev

6 M. Kuzmin

17 A. Makarchuk

28 R. Magal

9 Z. Fedorov

8 M. Ignatov

Coach · Igor Osinkin

Substitutes

3 · A. Soldatenkov

5 · A. Osipov

7 · R. Sheydayev

11 · P. Meleshin

22 · O. Kozhemyakin

39 · M. Lantrat

59 · R. Bart

60 · M. Nosatiy

85 · D. Silev

97 · R. Pasevich

FC UFA

4-2-3-1

31 A. Belenov

2 V. Cherov

5 D. Kutin

14 I. Agapov

43 A. Gilyazetdinov

6 Z. Tarba

8 S. Isaev

9 D. Lipovoy

88 M. Ageyan

11 M. Yakuev

10 G. Gongadze

Coach · Omari Tetradze

Substitutes

1 · T. Kraykov

7 · A. Davlitgereev

15 · A. Khabalov

17 · D. Ozmanov

20 · T. Shipunov

22 · Z. Yusupov

23 · D. Akhatov

70 · D. Ortiz

99 · A. Evdokimov

Our number · fc sochi winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

56% The market59%

Us56%

~~Market~~59%

We make FC Sochi a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Sochi win	56%	59%	−4
Draw	25%	24%	+1
FC UFA win	19%	16%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	48%	49%	−1
Both teams to score	48%	49%	0
Over 1.5 goals	73%	72%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	27%	30%	−3
FC Sochi or draw	81%	84%	−3
FC Sochi clean sheet	41%	–	–
FC UFA clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.1%

0123450 8.3 6.2 3.1 1 12.1 11.7 5.0 2 10.6 9.4 4.2 3 6.1 5.3 2.4 4 2.7 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Sochi down, FC UFA across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,720 First League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 7.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Sochi at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). FC UFA away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for FC Sochi, 0.90 for FC UFA. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 14:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~7.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FCS 5–2 FCU · FCU 3–4 FCS

Form · last six in First League

FC SOCHI

WWWLWD2–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

FC UFA

WWDDLD3–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	13	+27	34
2	Veles	14	+2	26
3	Ural	13	+13	25
4	Torpedo Moskva	13	+14	24
5	Spartak Kostroma	13	+5	24
6	FC Sochi	12	+7	23
7	Shinnik Yaroslavl	13	+4	19
8	Rotor Volgograd	13	+6	18
9	FC UFA	12	+3	18
10	Arsenal Tula	13	−9	16
11	Volga Ulyanovsk	14	−3	15
12	Chelyabinsk	13	−4	15
13	Enisey	13	−10	14
14	Leningradets	13	−12	13
15	FK Neftekhimik	13	−10	12
16	KAMAZ	13	−8	10
17	Ska-khabarovsk	13	−12	7
18	Tekstilshchik	13	−13	7