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Enisey v Torpedo Moskva

Enisey
1–2Full time
Torpedo Moskva

First League · SAT 17 OCT · Central Stadium (Krasnoyarsk)

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 12:08
Enisey 1–2 Torpedo Moskva TORPEDO MOSKVA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Torpedo Moskva win40%
The market said45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.537
The market’s Brier score0.453

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Torpedo Moskva win at 40%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Torpedo Moskva 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 31–29–40
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Enisey v Torpedo Moskva
  4. 13′A goal for Torpedo Moskva on 13′. 0–0 · 30–31–39
  5. 14′We said Torpedo Moskva at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 11–19–70
  6. 14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Enisey 0–1 Torpedo Moskva
  7. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Torpedo Moskva win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
  8. 16′We said Torpedo Moskva at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 0–2 · 3–8–89
  9. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Enisey 0–2 Torpedo Moskva
  10. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Torpedo Moskva win: 40% at kick-off, 89% now
  11. 17′A goal for Torpedo Moskva on 15′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–89
  12. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Torpedo Moskva win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
  13. 20′Jonathan Okoronkwo scores for Torpedo Moskva on 14′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–90
  14. 20′We said Torpedo Moskva at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–2 · 3–8–90
  15. 26′SUBSTITUTION · 23' Enisey · On: Andrea Chukanov · Off: Nikita Bogatyrev
  16. 34′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 8–20–72
  17. 34′Enisey score on 33′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 8–20–72
  18. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Enisey 1–2 Torpedo Moskva
  19. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Torpedo Moskva win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
  20. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Torpedo Moskva
  21. 45′HALF-TIME Enisey 1–2 Torpedo Moskva
  22. 46′SECOND HALF Enisey 1–2 Torpedo Moskva
  23. 48′We said Torpedo Moskva at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 6–19–75
  24. 53′8 shots for Enisey, 3 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 5–19–76
  25. 54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Torpedo Moskva · On: Vladimir Moskvichev · Off: Aleksey Kashtanov
  26. 63′We said Torpedo Moskva at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
  27. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Torpedo Moskva win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
  28. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Torpedo Moskva · On: Dmitriy Tsypchenko · Off: Jonathan Okoronkwo
  29. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Torpedo Moskva · On: Ruslan Apekov · Off: Aleksandr Yushin
  30. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Enisey · On: Luka Ratković · Off: Andrey Okladnikov
  31. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Enisey · On: Rodion Pechura · Off: Aleksandr Lomakin
  32. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Enisey
  33. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Enisey · On: David Kokoev · Off: Aleksandr Kanaplin
  34. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Torpedo Moskva win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
  35. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Enisey
  36. 87′We said Torpedo Moskva at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  37. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Torpedo Moskva · On: Aleksandr Orekhov · Off: Mario Ćurić
  38. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Artem Gyurdzhan · Enisey
  39. FTFULL TIME Enisey 1–2 Torpedo Moskva
  40. FTEnisey 1–2 Torpedo Moskva · Torpedo Moskva win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Torpedo Moskva are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Enisey 31%, draw 28%, Torpedo Moskva 40%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Enisey v Torpedo MoskvaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Enisey win31%
Draw28%
Torpedo Moskva win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 09:30

RoundMatchday 14

VenueCentral Stadium (Krasnoyarsk)

Line-ups

Enisey

4-2-3-1

Torpedo Moskva

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Enisey

Torpedo Moskva

3Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · the Russian Cup

Last match: 10 Oct · the Russian First League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Torpedo Moskva13+1424
13Enisey13−1014

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Enisey

4-2-3-1

23 S. Antipin

25 N. Shershov

22 A. Gyurdzhan

55 N. Bogatyrev

33 A. Maslovskiy

18 A. Nadolskiy

90 A. Lomakin

8 A. Kanaplin

21 E. Ivanov

87 A. Mazurin

75 A. Okladnikov

Coach · Vyacheslav Molchanov

Substitutes

1 · M. Oparin

3 · Y. Tses

10 · A. Aliyev

15 · M. Balakhonov

57 · E. Shupyakov

7 · A. Chukanov

17 · D. Kokoev

77 · R. Ogienko

81 · R. Pechura

27 · L. Ratkovic

Torpedo Moskva

4-4-2

25 R. Soldatenko

99 G. Shevchenko

2 N. Bozov

4 S. Borodin

17 I. Berkovsky

9 S. Oganesyan

97 M. Curic

20 J. Okoronkwo

7 A. Yushin

24 A. Pogosov

79 A. Kashtanov

Coach · Aleksandr Storozhuk

Substitutes

58 · D. Ladokha

22 · E. Parkhomenko

3 · A. Ivankov

84 · V. Churilov

5 · V. Moskvichev

21 · A. Galoyan

27 · A. Orekhov

8 · U. Ajibona

11 · R. Apekov

10 · D. Tsypchenko

Our number · torpedo moskva winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
40% The market45%
Us40%
Market45%

We make Torpedo Moskva a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Enisey v Torpedo Moskva1.11 – 1.30
Form · last six in First League this season · since 30 AugW1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 14 v 2413 v 5
The market · Torpedo Moskva win45% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 09:12
Our probability · Torpedo Moskva win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Enisey win31%27%+4
Draw28%28%0
Torpedo Moskva win40%45%−5
Over 2.5 goals43%43%0
Both teams to score49%49%0
Over 1.5 goals70%67%+3
Over 3.5 goals22%24%−2
Enisey or draw60%55%+5
Enisey clean sheet28%––
Torpedo Moskva clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%
0123450 9.8 11.1 7.5 3.3 1 9.5 13.3 8.2 3.6 2 5.6 7.1 4.6 3 2.1 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Enisey down, Torpedo Moskva across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.38
Over 2.51 of 8
Both scored1 of 8
Last meetingsTOR 1–0 ENI · ENI 0–1 TOR · TOR 2–0 ENI · ENI 0–1 TOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 30 Aug

ENISEY

DLLWDL0–0 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–5

TORPEDO MOSKVA

WWLDDW2–0 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Nizhny Novgorod13+2734
2FC Sochi14+929
3Veles14+226
4Ural13+1325
5Torpedo Moskva13+1424
6Spartak Kostroma13+524
7Shinnik Yaroslavl13+419
8Rotor Volgograd14+518
9FC UFA13+218
10Arsenal Tula13−916
11Volga Ulyanovsk14−315
12Chelyabinsk13−415
13Enisey13−1014
14Leningradets13−1213
15FK Neftekhimik13−1012
16KAMAZ13−810
17Ska-khabarovsk13−127
18Tekstilshchik13−137

The competition's standings before kick-off.